Eurasia Insight:
POSSIBLY OF POLITICAL CONFRONTATION IN AZERBAIJAN RISES AMID ALIYEV PROLONGED ILLNESS
7/30/03

President Heidar Aliyev’s prolonged illness is raising the possibility of political confrontation in Azerbaijan in the near future. Already, authorities have stepped up measures designed to intimidate opposition politicians and journalists. There are indications that top administration officials are willing to explore even more drastic measures – including the postponement of the upcoming presidential election – in order to retain power.

Aliyev, who has no been heard from or seen in three weeks, is believed to be in serious condition in a Turkish military hospital. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Publicly, those in Aliyev’s inner circle insist that the president remains at the helm of government and is planning to return to Azerbaijan soon. In addition, Aliyev remains the governing New Azerbaijan Party’s candidate in the upcoming October 15 presidential election. "He is feeling fine," Ilham Aliyev, the president’s son, said July 28. "Mr. President is supervising all [state] affairs."

Opposition media continue to insist that the president’s condition is terminal. There have even been reports that Aliyev may already be dead. "Ilham Aliyev said the president controls the country. Of course, everybody knows that he was bluffing," said a commentary in the opposition newspaper Hurriyyat on July 29. "Hospitals are not places for those who feel fine. … How can one on a respirator control the country?"

The Opposition Coordination Centre, an umbrella organization for the country’s major opposition political parties, has sent a letter of inquiry to Ramiz Mekhtiyev, chief of the presidential administration, concerning Aliyev’s ability to function. The letter questions the legitimacy of decrees issued under his signature, and demands that information concerning his health be made public.

Local political analysts believe Aliyev’s illness has already created a power vacuum that has great potential to result in political destabilization. Some observers note that fissures in the ruling New Azerbaijan Party are already apparent. "Advisers and bureaucrats long accustomed to obeying a single authority [Aliyev] are suddenly rudderless, and no one seems to know who is in charge," a recent editorial in the independent newspaper Azadliq noted.

Ilham appears to be his father’s designated political successor, but opinion is reportedly divided within governing circles as to whether the younger Aliyev possesses the skills to manage a political transition. The lack of certainty over a successor has evidently sown indecision over the governing elite’s policy direction in the event of Heidar Aliyev’s death.

The bulk seems willing to go along with a dynastic transfer of power. However, some New Azerbaijani Party members appear willing to explore alternate arrangements. Musa Musayev, a member of parliament from the New Azerbaijan party, publicly accused parliamentarians from his own party of starting secret negotiations with members of the opposition. Without naming names, he also implicated some ministers and heads of state-controlled companies in such discussions.

As the ruling party grapples with internal divisions over a possible political transition, it also must contend with an increasingly assertive opposition. A major opposition rally is planned for August 2.

In recent days, several members of Aliyev’s inner circle have launched vitriolic attacks at the opposition, attempting to cast administration opponents as enemies of stability. At the same time, state prosecutors have threatened opposition media outlets with "serious measures" over the publication of "libelous" information concerning Aliyev’s health.

"Their [opposition] media outlets are carrying out purposeful work to mislead the Azerbaijani public and to lead the public into an uncontrollable state," Ali Hasanov, a top Aliyev aide, told ANS television on July 27. "They [opposition leaders] are rocking the boat because the opposition is not happy with public-political stability. It does not suit them."

The verbal assaults have been accompanied by heavy-handed actions. In recent weeks, traffic police have repeatedly stopped motorcades containing opposition leaders on the streets of Baku. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. On July 26, authorities detained several prominent journalists as they departed a gathering held at the apartment of Rauf Arifoglu, editor-in-chief of the opposition Yeni Musavat newspaper. In addition to Arifoglu, other prominent journalists detained included Arif Aliyev, head of the Yeni Nasil Union of Journalists and Aflatun Amashev, chairman of the Press Council.

Authorities accused the journalists, who were released after roughly an hour in custody, of creating a traffic disturbance. One of the detained journalists, Amashev, characterized the incident as "psychological terrorism." The international organization Reporters Without Borders said in a statement that the incident was politically motivated and "aimed at preventing journalists revealing things that displease" Aliyev’s administration.

Many political observers in Baku believe that the government, in attempting to cast opposition leaders as agents of instability, is laying the groundwork for a full-fledged crackdown. Ilham Aliyev, in his public comments July 28, seemed to confirm that the government would explore all means to retain power.

"The only way for them [the opposition] to succeed is to create anarchy and unrest," Ilham said. "But we will never allow that. We will never let the opposition come to power. Their chances to come to power are equal to zero."

Some political observers expect the harassment of opposition members and media to intensify in the coming weeks. They also do not exclude the possibility that, in the event of Aliyev’s death, administration officials might feel compelled to postpone the presidential election.

Reports that soldiers have been deployed in the capital, Baku, indicate that the government is preparing for any contingency. Yeni Musavat reported that a convoy of 50 troop trucks was seen entering Baku during the night of July 27. The newspaper also said that military units across the country have been put on alert.

"Authorities have resorted to this move in order to be prepared for any extreme situation after the president’s death," Yeni Musavat editorialized. "It is not by chance that this redeployment is taking place preceding an opposition rally scheduled for August 2."