Afghan Presidential Campaign Entering Critical Period

Afghan President Hamid Karzai is pressing ahead with efforts to consolidate his political authority ahead of presidential elections in just over two months. Karzai appears to have been bolstered by reports that a voter registration drive has encountered surprising success in recent weeks.

Karzai's decision to replace Gen. Mohammad Fahim as his running mate in the October 9 presidential election has shaken his support within one of Afghanistan's most influential constituencies – the mujaheddin commanders who led the resistance to the 1979-89 Soviet occupation. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Despite the fact that Fahim's replacement on the election ticket, Ahmad Zia Masood, is the brother of slain war hero Ahmad Shah Masood, many mujaheddin commanders appear inclined to support Karzai's chief rival for the presidency – Yunus Qanooni.

"With Zia Masood as his running mate, Karzai expected to secure the vote of the mujaheddin. But he was wrong," said a foreign diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. "Karzai has lost [the support of] the mujaheddin's most influential leaders, including the commander of Mazar-i-Sharif, Mohammad Atta."

Some observers say Karzai's political shakeup, which was announced July 26, has left Afghanistan vulnerable to renewed inter-ethnic strife during the presidential campaign. The diplomatic source indicated that Fahim's ouster has alienated the bulk of the country's Tajik community. Although Zia Masood is himself a Tajik, a majority of Tajik leaders appear to feel that Fahim, who had served simultaneously as vice president and defense minister, was wronged. Fahim and many other influential Tajik leaders have already announced their support for the candidacy of Qanooni, who is also Tajik.

One prominent Tajik leader who continues to support Karzai is Burhanuddin Rabbani, who served as Afghan president after mujaheddin forces toppled the Moscow-supported government of Najibullah in 1992. Rabbani, who is Zia Masood's father-in-law, claimed the recent shake-up would help ensure a stable electoral process. "The problem between Fahim and Karzai was a lack of mutual confidence," Rabbani said. "This change [Zia Masood's appointment] is good for unity and stability, allowing us to have a peaceful and trusting atmosphere in the country."

Rabbani criticized Qanooni's last-minute decision to enter the presidential race. "I think they are reacting emotionally," he said. Rabbani also suggested that Qanooni was un-electable because he would not be able to garner substantial support among Afghanistan's other ethnic groups.

On a different front, Karzai received an important boost after United Nations officials announced that roughly 90 percent of eligible voters have registered to cast ballots. Voter registration efforts got off to a slow start in the spring, but the pace has picked up dramatically in recent weeks. At present, according to a UN tally, about 8.7 million Afghans out of just under 10 million potential voters have signed up to participate in the presidential election.

Meanwhile, Afghanistan's chief clerical body, the General Council of Ulema, issued a religious decree on August 3 calling on the country's population to shun the cultivation of poppies. "Poppy cultivation is the result of civil war, instability and lack of security. The Afghan General Council of Ulema emphasizes the need for stability and security throughout the country," the decree said. It went on to describe poppy cultivation as a "sinister phenomenon that brings disrepute" to Afghanistan.

Since the US-led anti-terrorism offensive in late 2001, Afghanistan has reclaimed its standing as the world's leading source of opiates. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Afghan experts said the burgeoning drug trade poses one of the most serious threats to the country's stabilization process. The Grand Council's decree could help Karzai's administration reverse the existing trend of rising drug production.