Ilham Aliyev's Appointment as Azerbaijan's PM Sets Stage for Dynamic Transition

Azerbaijan's parliament on August 4 approved the appointment of ailing President Heidar Aliyev's son, Ilham, as prime minister. The move, denounced by an opposition leader as a "usurpation of power," clears the way for a dynastic-style transfer of power in the oil-rich Caucasus nation.

Ilham's appointment sends the clearest signal yet that the elder Aliyev's tenure as Azerbaijan's paramount political leader is coming to an end. Heidar Aliyev has been hospitalized at a Turkish military facility since early July and is reported to be terminally ill. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Under a constitutional amendment approved during a summer 2002 referendum, Azerbaijan's prime minister becomes the interim president in the event of that the incumbent chief executive either dies in office or is incapacitated. Ilham and Heidar Aliyev are also the ruling New Azerbaijan Party's candidates in presidential elections, now scheduled for October 15.

After limited debate, parliament approved Ilham Aliyev's as prime minister by a 101-1 vote. Opposition MPs in the 125-seat legislature boycotted the vote. The outgoing prime minister, Artur Rasizade, did not immediately provide a reason for his sudden resignation, although he later reportedly based his decision on "health reasons."

Isa Gambar, head of the Musavat Party, characterized the move as "a usurpation of power" and said opposition forces would strive to counteract the ruling party's political maneuvers. "This is an attempt to play out a neo-monarchist scenario in Azerbaijan," Gambar said in a television interview. [For additional information see the accompanying EurasiaNet Q&A].

Speaking on state television after his elevation, Ilham praised his father's policies as "brilliant traditions," adding that his chief goal would be to maintain stability. "The aim of us all is to make Azerbaijan a strong and economically powerful country," Ilham said. "I am not in favor of any abrupt actions and think that everything should be implemented gradually."

Ilham's emergence as the elder Aliyev's likely successor has long been anticipated by Azerbaijan watchers. Heidar Aliyev has for years been laying the groundwork for just such a political transition. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. However, the president's illness clearly forced an acceleration of the process, and some observers believe Ilham may now have a tougher time consolidating his authority than he might have had his father had more time to groom his son for power.

In recent years, political analysts have questioned Ilham's desire to lead Azerbaijan's government, as well as his abilities to govern. There are also indications that Ilham does not command the loyalty of all factions within the New Azerbaijan Party. Unconfirmed reports indicated that as many as 50 top party members, dissatisfied with Ilham's political skills, recently sent out feelers to opposition leaders about finding a suitable political arrangement that would reduce the risks of confrontation. According to at least one observer, Ilham may himself serve as a placeholder. "His political ambition and skills are believed to be low," the industry newsletter World Markets Analysis reported August 4.

In approaching the presidential election campaign, Ilham has taken a tough line on opposition political parties. In a late July television interview, he denounced opposition media for conducting a "slander campaign" surrounding 80-year-old Heidar Aliyev's health woes, adding that government critics "simply want to commit sabotage." Ilham went on to hint that the government might resort to force to prevent the opposition leaders from achieving "their dirty aims."

When pressed for specifics on his economic priorities, Ilham Aliyev was evasive, in addition to being defensive about his qualifications. "Certainly, I have accumulated enough knowledge in this area [the economy]," the new prime minister told a state television interviewer. "I ought to analyze this sector thoroughly and then answer the question [on economic priorities]."

Ilham Aliyev's prior governmental experience is limited. His official biography says he was born in 1961 and graduated from the prestigious Moscow State Institute for International Relations in 1982. His rise within Azerbaijan's political and economic hierarchy began after Heidar Aliyev's return to power in Azerbaijan in 1993. Most recently, Ilham served as vice president of the state oil company, SOCAR, and was first deputy chairman of the New Azerbaijan Party. He also was elected as a vice president of the Council of Europe's Parliamentary Assembly (PACE). According to the Turan news agency, he resigned both his SOCAR and PACE posts.

For now, Ilham Aliyev, along with the rest of the ruling establishment, is maintaining the fiction that the elder Aliyev remains in charge of the day-to-day functions of state. "As for the president's health, it is good. He planned to return a couple of days ago, but the doctors wanted some additional treatment," Ilham told parliament on August 4. "However, I believe he will return to Azerbaijan soon."