Attention in Azerbaijan Fixes on Ilham Aliyev's Political Staying Power

Now that Ilham Aliyev has become Azerbaijan's prime minister, setting in motion a long planned political transition, perhaps the most asked question in Baku today is whether President Heidar Aliyev's son possesses the skills and charisma to last at the top of the country's political pyramid.

Although President Heidar Aliyev nominally remains as Azerbaijan's paramount political leader, many believe Ilham's assumption of the presidency to be imminent. The elder Aliyev is widely considered to be seriously ill. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. As prime minister, Ilham Aliyev is now positioned to become acting president if his father leaves the political stage for whatever reason.

Opinions on Ilham's leadership ability are decidedly mixed. In recent years, as plans for a transfer of power from father to son took shape, Ilham has had to contend with rumors that he is not particularly interested in politics. "He is a gambler and a player!" claimed the opposition daily Yeni Musavat.

Aware of the doubts surrounding Ilham, those in President Aliyev's inner circle are striving to burnish the new prime minister's image. Just hours after Ilham's appointment, President Aliyev's brother, Calal, offered effusive praise for his nephew. "Ilham Aliyev is the worthiest individual because of his genetic abilities, his erudition, his outlook, his mild nature, his mode of life," Calal Aliyev said in an interview broadcast by state television August 4. "He has matured. ... I am sure that he will cope with his post successfully and will lead Azerbaijan's politics and economy in the right direction."

As Calal's comments indicate, members of the ruling elite are not afraid to highlight the differences between President Aliyev, who remains isolated in a Turkish military hospital, and his son. Heidar Aliyev is viewed a savvy survivor of the Soviet political system, imbued with the guile and charm needed to succeed in a ruthless political arena. On the other hand, the perception of Ilham is that of a pampered scion of the Communist elite, able to speak several foreign languages but lacking in the ability to engage in the tough talk of politics.

Political observers tend to view Ilham as not nearly as strong willed as his father. This, they add, also separates Ilham from other leading members of the ruling elite. Several months ago, the opposition magazine Monitor wrote that it would be hard for Ilham Aliyev to gain the support of the ruling elite because "he does not come from the same background as they do."

Now, Ilham Aliyev's allies are attempting to turn his political differences into strengths. One Aliyev administration official, speaking to EurasiaNet on condition of anonymity, expressed the belief that Ilham is more open to promoting civil society than Heidar Aliyev. "Ilham is softer than his father," the official said. During his tenure as Communist Party boss, and over the last decade as independent Azerbaijan's president, Heidar Aliyev favored an authoritarian governing style.

Ilham's recent attacks against opposition leaders and media would seem to undermine the contention that he is more willing to engage in political give-and-take. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Opposition leaders, meanwhile, have characterized Ilham's appointment as "anti-constitutional." A statement issued by the Opposition Coordinating Center on August 4 described Ilham's appointment as "an act aimed at falsifying the October 15 presidential elections." Opposition leaders vowed a vigorous campaign to defeat Ilham at the ballot box. "We do not think it will be anyhow harder for us to compete with him" said Ali Kerimli, the leader of the opposition Popular Front Party, in an interview with the Russian TV channel ORT.

Some experts suggest the biggest challenge to Ilham's authority over the near term will come not from the political opposition, but from within the ruling New Azerbaijan Party (NAP). There are doubts whether Ilham Aliyev will be able to maintain unity among the NAP's several known factions. A few analysts also suggest a generational conflict is possible, with Ilham potentially having trouble commanding the loyalty of older party leaders. Potential rivals within the ruling establishment include parliament Speaker Murtuz Aleskerov and the presidential chief of staff Ramiz Mekhtiyev, some political analysts say.

In Ilham Aliyev's own comments following his appointment, he appeared to recognize the potential for opposition from within the ruling party by stressing the need for political continuity. "I am myself a member of this team. We are all members of this team. I do not have my own team, and will never have," Ilham said.

Ultimately, the fact that Ilham Aliyev already enjoys controlling influence over the administrative and financial resources of the NAP gives him a significant advantage in any possible political struggle. "The members of the ruling elite care only about their financial security," said a 33-year-old economist, speaking on condition of anonymity. "If they [members of the ruling elite] start fighting with each other, then the NAP will collapse and they will lose everything. Therefore, it is in their best interests to unite behind Ilham and maintain control over the economy of the country."