Rumsfeld Addresses Security Concerns on Lightning Trip to Afghanistan, Azerbaijan

US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, on a secretive and whirlwind trip to Central Asia and the Caucasus, sought to keep the Afghan election process on track and the Azerbaijani government in line.

Rumsfeld arrived with little prior notice in Afghanistan on August 11 to express US support for the Afghan election process. The country's presidential election is now scheduled for October 9. The vote, originally scheduled for last June, has been pushed back twice because of logistical difficulties. Officials have also voiced concern that the country's booming narcotics production could adversely influence the electoral process. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has identified the narcotics issue as among the biggest threats to Afghanistan's stability. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Bush administration officials have long acknowledged the drug danger in Afghanistan, but the US government's efforts to date have been ineffective in helping to curb burgeoning production. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In Kabul, Rumsfeld indicated that Washington, after witnessing two years of explosive growth in poppy production, was now ready to make the anti-drug issue a priority.

Rumsfeld told reporters shortly before his arrival that Pentagon planners were still working to develop a "master plan" for counter-narcotics operations in Afghanistan. During a joint press conference, though, he declined to elaborate on strategic and tactical elements of the "plan."

Earlier on August 11, Rumsfeld made a brief visit to the eastern city of Jalalabad, located in one of the largest drug-producing regions of the country. "It is increasingly clear to the international community that to address the drug problem here is important," Rumsfeld said in Jalalabad.

During perhaps Rumsfeld's most significant meeting of his lightning visit, he discussed security issues with Afghanistan's controversial Defense Minister, Gen. Mohammad Fahim, who was recently dropped by Karzai as his vice presidential running mate. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A main topic during the 20-minute discussion was the slow pace of disarmament of Afghan militias. The disarmament effort, known as DDR, was seen as a key to reducing the influence of Afghan warlords who control many of Afghanistan's provinces. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. However, the program has lagged far behind expectations and Fahim, the Afghan official responsible for implementation the program, has faced criticism for obstructing efforts to disarm militia forces under his direct control.

In recent weeks, US officials have pressed for a faster disarmament pace. Some Afghan political observers consider the US stance to be cynical, pointing out that since the opening of the anti-terrorism campaign in Afghanistan, the United States has provided extensive assistance to various warlords, playing a major role in sustaining their private armies. These militia groups have been used effectively as mercenaries in helping US forces hunt for Islamic militants.

A spokesman for Fahim, recounting the conversation with Rumsfeld, said the Afghan defense minister blamed the United Nations for DDR's slow pace, claiming that it had not provided sufficient funds to assist demobilized militia members. "The United Nations did not remain faithful to its end of the bargain," the spokesman, Mr. Gulbuddin, quoted Fahim as telling Rumsfeld. "Without its (UN) help, how can the [Afghan] Defense Ministry be expected to create jobs or pay militia members to give up their weapons?" In addition, Fahim was highly critical of the UN's anti-drug strategy, Gulbuddin said.

Despite the concern hovering over the anti-drug and disarmament initiatives, Rumsfeld proclaimed the Afghan electoral process to be on sound footing. "I believe Afghanistan is on the path to having successful, free and fair elections," he said.

A sense of urgency also surrounded Rumsfeld's brief stop in Azerbaijan. Local political analysts characterized Rumsfeld's trip to Baku as "unscheduled." The US defense secretary's talks August 12 with top Azerbaijani officials, including President Ilham Aliyev, were driven by "concern over the latest trends in Baku's foreign policy," said a commentary published in the Zerkalo daily on August 11.

Of late, the commentary indicated, Azerbaijani officials have shown signs of wavering in their pro-Western foreign policy orientation, an impression underscored by the visit of Iranian President Mohammad Khatami earlier in August. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Azerbaijan in recent months has sought to improve relations with a number of states – in particular Russia and Iran -- that are seen as competitors of the United States for influence in the Caucasus. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The diversification trend appears closely linked to mounting frustration in Azerbaijan to the stalemate in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Many in Baku hold the United States responsible for the lack of progress in the search for a Karabakh political settlement. Azerbaijan, the thinking in Baku goes, has steadfastly backed the US-led anti-terrorist campaign, including the military operations in Iraq, but has not received a reciprocal level of support from the United States on the Karabakh issue.

The Zerkalo commentary reflected the rising level of anger in Azerbaijan towards the United States. "Washington's main goal is not to help the Azerbaijani nation to prosper, but to oust Russia from the Caucasus and build a strategically important corridor between Central Asia, the Caucasus and Europe," it said.

Political analysts, including Vafa Guluzade, who served as an adviser to former president Heidar Aliyev, suggest the Azerbaijani government has felt compelled to reach out to Russia and Iran in an effort to achieve a breakthrough on the Karabakh issue. "If the United States continues to turn a blind eye to the situation, it can lose Azerbaijan as a strategic partner," Guluzade told Zerkalo.

Azerbaijani officials made a direct appeal to Rumsfeld for stronger US support for Baku on the Karabakh question, according to local reports. Rumsfeld was reportedly non-committal in his response. Following their talks, Rumsfeld and Ilham Aliyev provided no public hints that US-Azerbaijani relations were experiencing underlying tension. Aliyev characterized bilateral strategic cooperation as operating "at the highest level," according to an August 12 report broadcast by ANS television. "I am confident that in the future we will further strengthen our ties to become a closer friend and ally," Aliyev added. Rumsfeld echoed the Azerbaijani leader's comments, praising Azerbaijan for its "major efforts in combating terror."