As the rhetoric in a Russian-Georgian dispute over security in the troubled Pankisi Gorge becomes increasingly hostile, Moscow appears to be probing for international approval for a unilateral operation against Chechen separatists operating in Georgia. Russian officials insist their sole aim is to secure Russia proper against incursions by Chechen fighters. But some analysts suggest the intensity of Russia's verbal attacks indicates that Moscow seeks to retain its strategic influence over Georgia, if not maintain a military presence in the country.
Moscow has been pressuring Tbilisi since late July to take action to secure its porous order with Russia, and contain Chechen fighters that have utilized Georgia's Pankisi Gorge region as a safe haven. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. In recent days, Russian officials and political analysts have lambasted Georgian President Shevardnadze personally for failing to take action to bolster border controls.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov has described Georgia as a "nest" of terrorists, adding that the Georgian government's anti-terrorism policy was "based on duplicity." At an August 12 news conference, Ivanov claimed Shevardnadze was directly responsible for Pankisi's lack of security, saying the Georgian president gave Moscow verbal approval in 1999 for a Russian anti-terror operation on Georgian soil, only to rescind his permission later.
Shevardnadze, whose popularity has ebbed with the Georgian electorate, now finds himself in a tenuous domestic political position following local elections in June. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Some Russian MPs have accused the Georgian president of sacrificing regional security for his personal political ambitions. "Shevardnadze is trying to retain power and does not think about Georgia and the people living on its territory. That is the true reason for developments," said Vyacheslav Volodin, a member of Russia's State Duma.
Ivanov asserted that the Pankisi Gorge would remain a source of instability unless Russian troops participated in an anti-terrorist operation in the region. "Georgia will never resolve this problem without Russia's participation, without Russia's armed forces and special-operations troops," Ivanov told Russian Public Television on August 12.
Georgian officials have flatly refused Russian overtures on joint military operations. Russia, however, is attempting to garner international support for a Russian military presence in the Pankisi Gorge. Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov reportedly lobbied his American counterpart, Secretary of State Colin Powell, during a recent telephone conversation. In early August, Russian Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov indicated that Russia may ask permission from the UN to attack Chechen rebels in Pankisi.
Some Moscow political analysts have endorsed the notion of Moscow pursuing UN approval for an anti-terrorism operation. "We are dealing with a collapsing state [Georgia]," Sergei Karaganov, head of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy in Moscow, said in an August 13 interview with the Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily. "It is necessary to say first that we will operate within the framework of the UN Charter, within all possible mandates, and where possible, in collaboration with other international forces."
"Russia has a profound interest in the stability of the Georgian state," Karaganov added. "A collapsing Georgia only causes trouble for us."
The Pankisi issue is not the only source of tension between Moscow and Tbilisi. Russia is also pressing Georgia to extradite 14 alleged Chechen rebels now in Georgian custody. Georgia has demanded conclusive evidence of the suspects' insurgent activity before handing them over to Moscow. At the same time, Georgia has been angered by Russian support for the separatist Abkhazia region.
Brushing aside the bellicose rhetoric and the personal attacks, Shevardnadze has expressed optimism that existing differences can be resolved, and a bilateral treaty that creates a framework for stable relations can be negotiated. "I really do not see insoluble problems in our relations with Russia, our neighbor and historical ally," Shevardnadze said in his weekly radio interview August 12. " We have so many things in common that we are bound to have exemplary friendly relations worthy of our ancestors."
But some analysts in Russia and elsewhere feel stable relations may depend on Georgia's willingness to tolerate a Russian strategic presence in the country, especially in Abkhazia. Georgi Derluguian, a professor at Northwestern University in Chicago suggested in an interview with EurasiaNet that Russia may want to maintain military bases in Georgia. Tbilisi and Moscow are currently arguing over a timetable for the closure of Russia's two remaining military bases in Georgia.
Russia's desire for an ongoing strategic presence in Georgia is driven in part by Georgia's drift towards the West, underscored by Tbilisi's acceptance of US military instructors to help train the Georgian military in anti-terrorism operations.
"People in Tbilisi now realize that they have to address this problem somehow, but they are reluctant to do so in conjunction with Russia," Karaganov said in the newspaper interview. "They [the Georgian leadership] want to compel the Americans to go in there. But from Russia's standpoint this is an intolerable problem. On the other hand, I think we have many intolerable problems and we should try to tackle them within a framework of the maximum possible legality."
Editor's note:
Sergei Blagov is a Moscow-based specialist in CIS political affairs.
