Proposed Leader of Tajik Islamists Discusses Opposition Party’s Future

The Islamic Renaissance Party in Tajikistan, the only legally recognized religious party in Central Asia, now finds itself in a state of disarray, following a string of political defeats at the hands of President Imomali Rahmonov, and the recent death of the party's long-time leader. It appears that the task of rebuilding the party's influence will fall to Muhiddin Kabiri, a pragmatist who represents a younger generation of party leaders.

The IRP leadership named Kabiri as the party's interim chief shortly after the August 9 death of Said Abdullo Nuri, who lost a prolonged bout with cancer. Nuri's leadership of the party had dated back to Tajikistan's 1992-97 civil war, when the Islamic Renaissance Party formed the backbone of the armed resistance to forces led by Rahmonov. Under the peace deal that ended the civil war, the IRP gained cabinet posts in the Rahmonov-led government.

In recent years, however, the IRPs political influence has declined precipitously, due not only to presidential administration pressure, but also to internal divisions within the party itself. In the 2005 parliamentary elections, the IRP managed to win just two of the 63 legislative seats up for grabs, although the vote was marred by allegations of irregularities. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Since the parliamentary election, the IRP struggled to regain its footing, as Nuri battled his terminal illness.

Kabiri, who served as one of Nuri's top lieutenants, is expected to be confirmed as the IRPs new leader at a party conference September 2. His appointment represents a generational change within the IRP. Some political analysts say Kabiri places less emphasis on the party's Islamic roots than do older party leaders. Even so, in an interview with EurasiaNet, Kabiri indicated that he was not planning significant changes, at least over the near term. Sounding a deferential note, Kabiri added that he saw no problems with the policies pursued by Nuri. "Of course, every one in politics possesses a certain place, and I don't think that I enjoy the [same level of] influence wielded by Nuri. That's why I'm not sure if we can do as well as he did in politics," he said.

Kabiri is taking over at a tough time, with a presidential election scheduled to take place in late 2006. During Nuri's illness, it was unclear whether or not the IRP would field a candidate to challenge Rahmonov. Kabiri, in speaking with EurasiaNet, did little to clarify the situation. All he would say was that the IRP would maintain the present course.

"By and large, we are interested in good relations with officials," he said. "Of course, we will keep speaking out our minds and criticize whenever needed. We will express our views on issues with clarity and with no fear."

While Nuri was still at the helm of the IRP, rumors circulated in Dushanbe that Kabiri might be a candidate for president in 2006. But when pressed directly on whether he would run for president later this year, Kabiri deferred an answer, suggesting he was not willing to challenge Rahmonov at this time. "I am not ready to answer this question right now, since it depends on the party's conference," he said. "Besides, we have lots of other issues at the moment. Some of them are far more important than the presidential elections. Hopefully, we will answer your question after the conference."

Although a bitter opponent of the president, Nuri clearly earned the respect of leading members of the presidential team. That much was clear during the late IRP leader's funeral, when Mahmadsaid Ubaidolloev, the parliament chairman and mayor of Dushanbe, eulogized Nuri as a "remarkable" and "historic" figure. "Today we say goodbye to a famous politician, and we respect his role in establishing peace and unity in Tajikistan," Ubaidolloev said. Kabiri's caution is pragmatic, some observers say, given that the presidential team is unlikely to possess the same level of esteem for the new IRP leader as they did for Nuri.

Kabiri's immediate task will be consolidating his hold over the party, which may prove time-consuming. Some experts wonder whether Kabiri will be able to repair rifts and pull the IRP out of its nose-dive. Hakimshah Muhabbatov, a Tajik political expert in Moscow, is one of those who believe that "the party is falling apart" because of internal philosophical differences.

Kabiri dismissed such speculation, saying the party leadership was united. To back up his assertion he cited the unanimous vote of the IRP's Political Council in naming him Nuri's successor. "We proved that there is no definite line between fractions and groups within the party," Kabiri said. "I think they [critics] are just trying to create a negative atmosphere around the party."