Azerbaijan: A Road, if not a Referendum, for Nagorno-Karabakh

Expectations are running high in Baku that an upcoming meeting between the presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia can achieve a breakthrough in the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.

President Ilham Aliyev and President Robert Kocharian of Armenia are scheduled to hold a summit on August 26 in the Russian city of Kazan, on the sidelines of a Commonwealth of Independent States gathering. Some media outlets in Baku have reported that the two could sign a declaration in Kazan outlining a possible Karabakh settlement. Officials, however, have refused to confirm these reports. "The maximum we can expect from the meeting in Kazan is a statement by the presidents in which they would order their foreign ministers to start working on the text of a future agreement," one senior government official told EurasiaNet, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Not all Baku analysts predict even that degree of progress. Ilgar Mamedov, an independent political analyst, suggested that both Aliyev and Kocharian could be posturing in an effort to curry the favor of Western governments and international organizations. Both presidents will soon face crucial political tests at home – parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan and a constitutional referendum in Armenia – and both leaders don't want to do anything at this delicate point that would undermine their respective international standing. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. International mediators have pushed hard in recent months to promote a Karabakh solution. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"The recent wave of optimism could have been predicted a long time ago based on previous experience of the connection between elections and the negotiation process," said Mamedov. "The so-called 'Prague process' will diminish in importance after the forthcoming November elections in Azerbaijan and referendum in Armenia." The "Prague process" refers to the regular meetings between Azerbaijan and Armenia's foreign ministers and the co-chairs of the Organization for Security and Cooperation's Minsk Group, the tripartite body charged with mediating a conflict resolution. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Government officials, however, reject such a view. While saying that he is "far from euphoric on the chances for reaching peace soon," Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Tagizade commented that "we can say that there is real mutual progress on the negotiations." Recent charges that Armenian special services participated in a supposed coup plot against the Aliyev administration, along with the leader of a pro-opposition Azerbaijani youth group, appear to have done little to dispel that optimism. Armenian officials have denied any involvement in a coup plot. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Baku remains insistent on a so-called "step by step" settlement for the Karabakh conflict, Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov told journalists on July 21. Under this approach, Karabakh's territorial status would be defined only after Armenian forces withdraw from seven occupied Azerbaijani regions and communications between the two counties are restored. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Demilitarizing the conflict zone, clearing mines, the return of refugees and the provision of security guarantees are among other measures that would be implemented. The possible installation of peacekeeping forces in Nagorno-Karabakh is seen as the final issue for agreement, according to Mammadyarov. "And any status is possible only within the framework of Azerbaijan's territorial integrity," the foreign minister added.

Resolving Karabakh's future territorial status is possible "freely and democratically," only after the successful implementation of all the above measures, according to one senior government official who spoke with EurasiaNet on condition of anonymity, "However the implementation of all the discussed stages could require years," the official noted.

As part of this "free and democratic" process, the official said, a referendum on Karabakh's status could be considered. When a referendum was proposed during negotiations in Yerevan in mid-July, the Azerbaijani government reacted negatively. The issue is reportedly to be finally resolved during the meeting between Aliyev and Kocharian.

Many Azerbaijani experts and media pundits are opposed to a referendum. Eldar Namazov, a former presidential aide and one of the leaders of the YeS opposition alliance, argued that agreeing to a referendum would go against Azerbaijan's national interests. "There is no way to conduct a referendum in the occupied territories and every single attempt to do so is doomed," Namazov said.

Vafa Guluzade, a retired Azerbaijani diplomat, said Azerbaijan did not need to agree to a referendum to secure a peace deal. "The Armenians have already conducted a referendum and no doubt that they will vote for independence again," Guluzade told Turan.

A further snag looms just over the horizon. Azerbaijan's constitution dictates that any referendum held in the country must be held nationwide, noted Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov in comments to reporters. If Azerbaijan sees Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan, any question on its status must be submitted to Azerbaijanis outside of the territory as well. Otherwise, in Azimov's words, a referendum will be impossible.

One sweetener, however, has already been put on the table. Azerbaijan has proposed opening a new motorway that would link the Azerbaijani town of Agdam (located in Armenian-occupied territory) with the Karabakh capital Stepanakert, and from there, to the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichivan. According to Azerbaijani officials, the road would ensure reliable links between Armenia and Karabakh, and also between Azerbaijan and its Nakhichivan exclave.

"This project could make the South Caucasus a united region from the political point of view and would encourage regional cooperation," said an official who spoke on condition of anonymity. If implemented, Armenia and Azerbaijan would each provide security for their section of the road.

The security issue was discussed in mid-July in Baku between the Minsk Group's co-chairs and leaders of the remaining Azerbaijani community in Karabakh, Nizami Bakhmanov and Elbrus Takhmazov. One proposal, supported by Bakhmanov, would see OSCE peacekeepers provide for the road's security, with traffic following a pre-determined schedule -- a practice employed in Bosnia in the 1990s.

The catch, however, could lie in Lachin, which contains the road that connects Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. Azerbaijan remains adamant that Armenia not retain control of the territory. "Lachin is part of Azerbaijan and there is no way for the region to stay under Armenian control," Azimov said in a July 15 interview with ATV television.

Azerbaijan is calling for the resettlement of the Armenian population from Lachin. "For the last 100 years, Armenians did not live in Lachin, so that they have to be resettled," said Bakhmanov. "But compensation to these people could be paid," he added, citing the findings of a report by an international fact-finding mission earlier this year.

Commenting on the Armenian side's concerns about the security of Karabakh's Armenian population after the return of Azerbaijani residents, Bakhmanov stated that the return of a "peaceful population without arms" to Lachin and Shusha, a city strongly tied to Azerbaijani culture, is "in itself is a guarantee of security."

In July, the Russian Minsk Group co-chairman Yuri Merzlyakov lauded Armenia and Azerbaijan for "showing their willingness for compromise." Even so, many international observers are restrained in their expectations for the peace process. A resolution to the conflict "could be settled by the end of the year, or may not be settled for 100 years," commented Steven Mann, US co-chair of the Minsk Group, on July 21. It all depends "on the will of the government and the people of the two nations."