Armenian leaders are hopeful, but cautious as they approach what could prove to be pivotal talks concerning the future of the Nagorno-Karabakh territory.
Armenian President Robert Kocharian will try to break the existing deadlock in the Karabakh talks when he meets Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev August 26, amid a summit of Commonwealth of Independent States member states. As a prelude to those discussions, Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov are expected to hold talks in Moscow on August 23.
Hopes for a Karabakh deal have risen markedly since the July 10-16 visit to Armenia, Azerbaijan and Karabakh by the co-chairmen of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's Minsk Group, the tri-partite body charged with mediating peace talks. "We have never been closer to an agreement," Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov was quoted as saying by various Armenian media outlets after Minsk Group co-chairmen Steven Mann (USA), Bernard Fassier (France) and Yuri Merzlyakov (Russia) left Baku on July 13.
The substance of recent discussions remains a tightly guarded secret. While cautiously optimistic, Armenian officials and experts believe the talks can still stumble over several significant obstacles. Most in Yerevan also are putting the onus on Azerbaijan for the fulfillment of settlement expectations. In an August 11 editorial, the Golos Armenii newspaper stated that "Azerbaijan has to demonstrate with real deeds its commitment to a compromise-based, civilized ... solution of the Karabakh problem."
Armenian and Karabakh leaders refuse to entertain the possibility of the breakaway territory remaining under Azerbaijan's jurisdiction. In June, Armenian President Robert Kocharian, who served as president of the breakaway territory from 1994-1997, reaffirmed this point while speaking with a group of Armenian students in Moscow. "Karabakh's independence isn't liable to bargaining," he said in a speech aired by the Armenian public television on June 23.
In recent weeks, some high-profile politicians have hinted that mediators may be probing for a compromise that could potentially leave Karabakh outside of Azerbaijan. "Progress has been made in the . . . conflict settlement process. It is most evident in Azerbaijan's position, which is relatively constructive. The status of Nagorno-Karabakh is the key issue, and Azerbaijan is now discussing it with the co-chairs," Arkady Ghukasian, president of the self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, said in July after Minsk Group officials visited Stepanakert.
A report distributed by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFERL) suggested that one compromise under consideration would have Armenia withdraw from at least five of the seven occupied regions (excluding the Lachin, and, most likely, Kelbajar regions connecting Karabakh with Armenia). Armenia would also permit the return of Azerbaijani residents to the occupied territories and to Nagorno-Karabakh proper.
According to a high-ranking sources cited in the RFERL report, Azerbaijan would, in turn, agree to recognize Karabakh's status based on the results of a referendum to be held among the inhabitants of the enclave within 10 to 15 years. To build bilateral confidence, the sides would open a motorway connecting Azerbaijan, Karabakh, Armenia and the Nakhichivan exclave of Azerbaijan. In addition, according to the same source, Turkey would open its border with Armenia as soon as a Karabakh settlement is signed.
Serious distractions could come in the form of Azerbaijan's November parliamentary elections and Armenia's constitutional referendum, expected to take place at roughly the same time. In addition, the notion of a Karabakh referendum is already generating considerable opposition in Azerbaijan.
Some opposition politicians in Armenia and Karabakh are also critical of the referendum proposal. They point out that the territory already held a plebiscite in 1991 in which residents voted overwhelmingly for independence. In a July 13 interview with the daily newspaper Aravot, Aram G. Sargsian, leader of the Democratic Party of Armenia, argued that the outcome of a future referendum in the territory could turn out to be unfavorable for Armenians, as Azerbaijanis, who have a much higher birth rate, might become a majority in the territory within 10 years.
Editor's note:
Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer specializing in economic and political affairs.
