Afghan Warlords Not Only Part of the Problem, But Also Part of the Solution - Expert

Recent fighting among rival milita groups in western Afghanistan underscores the threat that the country's warlords pose to the country's stabilization process. A recent report prepared by British MPs cited the warlord threat in warning that Afghanistan "could implode" without urgent security assistance. At the same time, the report suggested that warlords can also be part of the solution to Afghan security dilemmas.

The trouble in Herat Province began August 14, when several militia factions attacked forces loyal to the region's most powerful warlord, Ismail Khan, who serves as the provincial governor. Last March, Khan's troops battled Afghan central government forces. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In the most recent fighting, however, Afghan President Hamid Karzai has supported Khan. According to news reports, both sides suffered significant casualties amid heavy fighting before the negotiation of a ceasefire on August 17. About 1,500 Afghan National Army soldiers have deployed in the region. US aircraft were reportedly helping to monitor the ceasefire.

The reasons for factional fighting in Afghanistan are often murky. It has long been clear, however, that the country's myriad warlords collectively represent a major obstacle for the Afghan stabilization process. Karzai has spoken repeatedly and forcefully in recent weeks of the need to end warlordism in Afghanistan, adding that unruly militias pose one of the major threats to the success of the presidential election process. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The key to neutralizing the warlords is the acceleration of a program to disarm militia formations, Karzai said. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

A report released in late July by the British House of Commons Foreign Affairs Committee (CFAC) largely concurred with Karzai's assessment on the importance of disarming militias. It urged the British government to develop policies that would increase the success of a troubled program called Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration. It also called for increased international support for the central government in the weeks leading up to the October presidential election. "Until the Afghan National Army has developed its own capacity," the report states, "the international forces in Afghanistan must retain the option and therefore the capability of assisting Afghan authorities to deal militarily with commanders who persist in operating outside the rule of law."

Karzai has expressed a desire to use force in an attempt to crush warlord resistance to central government authority. The CFAC report, however, raised doubts over whether confrontational tactics could succeed. It suggested that Karzai's administration lacked the power to compel the submission of the warlords. "On balance, we believe that taking on the [militia] commanders militarily is probably neither sensible nor a realistic option in the short to medium term."

The report indicated that the soundest way to solve contain militia violence would be to co-opt warlords, rather than coerce them. "Afghanistan's