Is SCO Unity an Illusion?

The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit held in Bishkek fostered an image of unity among Central Asian states. The reality of the region's political and economic conditions, however, belies such solidarity.

According to a joint communiqué issued in connection with the August 16 summit, SCO member states – China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – agreed to take coordinated, though unspecified action to promote regional stability. In addition, SCO members indicated that they are fully capable of ensuring Central Asia's steady economic and political development – a backhanded way of saying a strong US presence in the region is neither needed, nor desired.

Joint military exercises involving troops from SCO states, staged August 9-17 in Russia in conjunction with the Bishkek summit, reinforced the impression that the organization is striving to become a security alternative that renders American strategic involvement in Central Asia redundant.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov hailed the gathering as the most productive yet. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in an interview posted on his presidential website, scoffed at the notion that the SCO aims to develop a military capability that would enable it to challenge the United States and NATO for strategic supremacy in Central Asia. Putin insisted that "the economic element is the main focus" of the SCO, going on to say that "concerning the military element, it is not military per se, but an anti-terrorist element."

Regardless of the SCO's nature, Putin and other Russian officials have exuded optimism that the organization can serve as an instrument of pressure, helping the Kremlin achieve a major strategic aim in Central Asia – the drastic reduction of US security and economic influence in the area.

Underlying conditions in Central Asia suggest that Russian confidence may be misplaced. The prevailing spirit among Central Asian states is more confrontational than it is cooperative.

One of the most acute problems in Central Asia is on-going inter-ethnic tension. This tension is largely responsible for Uzbekistan's acrimonious relationship with Tajikistan, and it has also complicated Tashkent's ties with Kyrgyzstan.

The present situation in the Soghd Region in northern Tajikistan is extremely tense, underscored by the early August convictions of three Uzbek nationals on espionage charges by a local court. This wasn't the first espionage incident in the region, as three other Uzbeks were found guilty of spying for Uzbekistan in 2006. "Such trials do not surprise me at all.

Tajikistan's border regions with Uzbekistan are home to a sizeable Uzbek diaspora, which the Tajik authorities tend to see as a