EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - The Makings of a Quagmire in Central Asia

EURASIA INSIGHT

THE MAKINGS OF A QUAGMIRE IN CENTRAL ASIA
Justin Burke 8/23/00

With sporadic fighting continuing between government forces and Islamic insurgents, Central Asia faces the prospect of becoming embroiled in a long-term conflict.

The first clashes this summer occurred August 7 in the mountainous Sukhandarya region of Uzbekistan. Since then, fighting has spread to the Batken region of Kyrgyzstan, the scene of a prolonged hostage crisis involving Islamic militants in 1999. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. The insurgents reportedly have infiltrated the region from bases in Afghanistan, via Tajikistan.

The fighting has displaced at least 1,000 civilians, according to Human Rights Watch. There are no reliable casualty figures, although it appears that dozens of Uzbek and Kyrgyz government troops have been killed. The insurgents are believed to be members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, which aims to oust Uzbek President Islam Karimov’s government.

At an emergency meeting August 20, convened to discuss the crisis, the heads of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan adopted a statement that committed the states to an armed response. "We firmly state that terrorist actions will be crushed using the most decisive measures," the statement said.

But some observers contend that in opting to attempt a military solution, Central Asian leaders may end up exacerbating, rather than alleviating the underlying conditions fueling the conflict. In addition, others suggest that the region’s military establishments are incapable of defeating the insurgents.

"The Afghan war and the Chechen conflict do not seem to have taught staff officers anything," a Kazakh Commercial Television commentator said on August 21.

On August 14, Kyrgyz, Tajik and Uzbek officials established a joint headquarters in the Leninabad region of Tajikistan to coordinate the intergovernmental response to the insurgency. In mulling their military options, regional planners face a strategic dilemma concerning Afghanistan.

Central Asian officials assert that the Islamic insurgents are receiving critical training and support from the Taliban movement, which controls most of Afghanistan’s territory. Eliminating the militants’ supply and training bases in Afghanistan would appear to be a key to achieving the military victory sought by Central Asian leaders. Yet, those same leaders are categorically opposed to taking armed action against the Taliban.

Uzbek President Islam Karimov downplayed statements made in the spring by Russian officials, who suggested that Moscow would be willing to conduct air strikes against targets in Afghanistan, as well as supply anti-Taliban forces. Such statements "have done us more harm than good," Karimov said during a news conference August 20. "We are not going to wage war against anyone, or invade anyone’s territory."

Central Asian governments face additional complications in their relations with Russia. The August 20 joint statement tacitly called on Russia to aid the reinforcement of Central Asia’s southern borders, including Tajikistan’s boundary with Afghanistan. At the same time, Russia was openly invited to join the Tashkent anti-terrorism pact. In appealing for Russian aid, Central Asian leaders are running the risk of having to surrender some of their sovereignty, some experts say. In recent years, Russia has sought to bolster its military presence in Central Asia, as well as enhance its political influence in the region.

The situation "provides Russia with lots of leverage and presents opportunities," said Michael Ochs, a staff analyst in Washington for the US Congressional Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe. He added that Central Asian leaders would prefer to keep Russian involvement to a minimum. "They [Central Asian leaders] don’t want to let the Russians back in."

What role Russia assumes in the counter-insurgency remains to be seen. What is known is that Russian officials remain committed to a hard-line approach to the Taliban. "What I said in May is just as topical today, and the events taking place here [in Central Asia] � in my view graphically confirm this," said Sergei Ivanov, secretary of Russia’s Security Council, who attending the emergency meeting August 20. He was referring to comments he made in May on the need to provide military assistance to anti-Taliban forces.

Some observers warn that a greater Russian role could inflame the conflict. "As Chechnya demonstrates, Russia supports only a violent approach," said Ramazan Dyryldayev, the head of the Kyrgyz Committee for Human Rights.

"They [Russians] are not interested in negotiations, and will only pursue force," Dyryldayev continued. "But if the fighting continues, I am not so sure it will end anytime soon. Even the Russian army may not be capable of liquidating the terrorists."

Dyryldayev and other human rights activists have criticized Central Asian governments for resorting to mass arrests of Islamic activists, as part of their counter-insurgency strategy. Such repressive tactics are responsible for placing the region in a "downward spiral," they say.

According to Human Rights Watch, thousands of men have been unjustly detained in Uzbekistan and charged with engaging in unauthorized activity, including the distribution of religious leaflets, or for membership in unsanctioned religious groups. [For background see the EurasiaNet Recaps archive]. The organization has warned against "stepped up repression in Uzbekistan against religious believers and political opponents." At the same time, Human Rights Watch has called on the Islamic insurgents to respect the rights of civilians, and to refrain from hostage-taking.

Dyryldayev said that the insurgents could accurately be described as terrorists. "But we have to ask: why have they turned to terrorism?" he continued. "Many people [in the region] are hungry and they are suffering, and these are the people who are becoming terrorists."

The current policies of Central Asian countries, especially Uzbekistan, are fanning discontent, experts say. As a result, the base of support for the insurgents is expanding.

"Some contacts in Uzbekistan have told me that many people there, especially in the Ferghana Valley, are waiting for the insurgents and are ready to welcome them," Dyryldayev said. "These are people who harbor deep grievances with Karimov’s regime. � They have seen their friends and relatives unjustly imprisoned � This segment of the population is willing to support the fighters and it is not an insignificant sector of society."

Editor�s Note: Justin Burke is the editor of EurasiaNet.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

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