EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - US-Kyrgyz Relations Back on Solid Ground -- But for How Long?

EURASIA INSIGHT

US-KYRGYZ RELATIONS BACK ON SOLID GROUND -- BUT FOR HOW LONG?
Yulia Savchenko 8/23/06

After hitting a rough patch earlier this summer, US-Kyrgyzstan relations now seem to be back on solid ground. But some political experts in Bishkek believe President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s apparent preference for Russia could lead to a renewal of US-Kyrgyz tension down the road.

A dispute over lease terms for the American air base at Manas, located outside the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek, had threatened to cause a break in US-Kyrgyz relations. Adding to the tension was a dispute in which Kyrgyzstan expelled two US diplomats over alleged inappropriate conduct, prompting the United States to retaliate by declaring two Kyrgyz diplomats in Washington persona non grata. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In July, US officials agreed to raise the annual payment for use of the Manas base to $150 million from the earlier level of roughly $2 million, thus defusing the crisis. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

During a mid-August visit to Bishkek, Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher predicted an expansion of bilateral relations in the coming months. "I think you will see a lot of cooperation in a lot of areas with the United States and Kyrgyzstan," a report distributed by the State Department quoted Boucher as saying.

Boucher also insisted that the Kyrgyz government decision to expel the US diplomats had been based on inaccurate information. "The thing we really need to do is make sure that the false information and false stories don’t disrupt the relationship," Boucher said.

Kyrgyzstan is the home of not only an American air base, but also a Russian military facility in the Bishkek suburb of Kant. The Russian base technically operates under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a grouping of former Soviet states that is dominated by Moscow. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Over the past 18 months or so, Kyrgyzstan has emerged as one of the primary arenas for geopolitical competition between Russia and the United States. Boucher, however, sought to downplay the notion that Washington was vying for strategic dominance in Central Asia. "We are not here to play games or contend for influence with different countries," Boucher said, according to the August 14 State Department report. "We are here to provide additional options."

Many Kyrgyz experts are pleased that Washington is retaining its base in Kyrgyzstan. "The result reached through these negotiations is the best case scenario for Kyrgyzstan in all its aspects, including the geopolitical one," said Kadyr Malikov, an expert at the Institute for Analysis and Planning in Bishkek.

Orozbek Moldaliev, head of the Bishkek-based Center for Politics, Religion and Security Research, suggested that Bakiyev was primarily responsible for instigating the crisis. "The way Bakiyev handled the question of the American military presence [was] unacceptable," he said.

In an effort to shore up his relatively weak domestic power base, Bakiyev in 2006 has sought increased political support from Russia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Some experts believe he may have given serious consideration to booting the Americans out of Manas, but ultimately decided that his administration couldn’t depend on Russia to fill the economic assistance void that the US departure would create. "Russia’s financial capacity is growing due to the high price of oil nowadays. But the scope of Russia’s problems is growing as well," Moldaliev said. "In reality, Russia can hardly offer any adequate [economic] support to Kyrgyzstan."

Even so, Bakiyev remains deeply interested in integrating Kyrgyzstan into Moscow-dominated multilateral organizations, specifically the CSTO, and the Eurasian Economic Community. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Government officials also make it clear that Russia will figure prominently in Kyrgyzstan’s foreign policy calculations for the foreseeable future. Russia’s "position and opinion is crucial for us," said Aibek Moldogaziev, a top Kyrgyz Foreign Ministry official. "Today the Russian Federation understands and supports our efforts in collaborating with the [US-led] anti-terror coalition, and [Moscow] doesn’t [pressure] us about forcing out the American military base."

Many observers in Bishkek look askance at such comments. Given the Bakiyev administration’s strengthening ties with Russia, experts tend to believe that it is only a matter of time before questions about the future of the American base arise again. "Bakiyev’s political resources � are currently very limited, so decisions made today are not necessarily final,’ said Muratbek Imanaliyev, a former minister of foreign affairs under former president Askar Akayev.

Editor’s Note: Yulia Savchenko is a freelance journalist based in Kyrgyzstan.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the position of the Open Society Institute and are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.