Uzbekistan: Potential Turmoil Lurks Behind a Stable Facade

A newly issued report prepared by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group contends that Uzbekistan is vulnerable to political turmoil, adding that instability in Central Asia's most populous state could create a region-wide humanitarian crisis.

The report, titled Uzbekistan: Stagnation and Uncertainty, argues that President Islam Karimov's presidential tenure has destabilized an already brittle regime, going on to state that "the international community must brace for civil conflict in Uzbekistan when the dictatorial president, Islam Karimov, leaves office." There is no clear-cut succession process in place, and Karimov's term in office technically expired in January 2007, the report states.

ICG warns that, in contrast to Turkmenistan, which is currently making a relatively peaceful transition between old and new presidents, Uzbekistan seems more prone to a violent power struggle following Karimov's departure. "There is great resentment, increasing the chance of serious unrest whose impact will be felt throughout Central Asia once Karimov steps down," said Robert Templer, Crisis Group's Asia Program Director.

The wide-ranging nature of Karimov's repressive policies -- featuring the prolific work of the National Security Services and a steady slide of living standards for the overwhelming majority of Uzbeks -- has alienated citizens, investors and has stoked religious discontent to the point of radicalization. "The economy remains tightly controlled, with regime stalwarts, including the security services and Karimov's daughter Gulnara, exerting excessive influence, which drives away investors and exacerbates poverty," the report states.

Because government repression currently is keeping a tight lid on societal discontent, a false sense of security may be hovering over Uzbekistan at present. "The political scene is full of uncertainty. The apparent public apathy reflects not support for the regime, but rather pervasive fear and a sense of hopelessness," Templer said.

According to the report, the international community has virtually no means at its disposal to promote a stable transition of authority. Uzbekistan has succeeded in estranging a large number of foreign governments, international agencies and NGOs; and only token gestures of reform have been made in response to EU sanctions imposed after events in Andijan in 2005.

Alain Délétroz, Crisis Group Vice-President for Europe, said that "the Andijan events showed the ineffectiveness of years of Western