EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Uzbekistan: Potential Turmoil Lurks Behind a Stable Facade

EURASIA INSIGHT

UZBEKISTAN: POTENTIAL TURMOIL LURKS BEHIND A STABLE FACADE
Deirdre Tynan 8/24/07

A newly issued report prepared by the Brussels-based International Crisis Group contends that Uzbekistan is vulnerable to political turmoil, adding that instability in Central Asia’s most populous state could create a region-wide humanitarian crisis.

The report, titled Uzbekistan: Stagnation and Uncertainty, argues that President Islam Karimov’s presidential tenure has destabilized an already brittle regime, going on to state that "the international community must brace for civil conflict in Uzbekistan when the dictatorial president, Islam Karimov, leaves office." There is no clear-cut succession process in place, and Karimov’s term in office technically expired in January 2007, the report states.

ICG warns that, in contrast to Turkmenistan, which is currently making a relatively peaceful transition between old and new presidents, Uzbekistan seems more prone to a violent power struggle following Karimov’s departure. "There is great resentment, increasing the chance of serious unrest whose impact will be felt throughout Central Asia once Karimov steps down," said Robert Templer, Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director.

The wide-ranging nature of Karimov’s repressive policies -- featuring the prolific work of the National Security Services and a steady slide of living standards for the overwhelming majority of Uzbeks -- has alienated citizens, investors and has stoked religious discontent to the point of radicalization. "The economy remains tightly controlled, with regime stalwarts, including the security services and Karimov’s daughter Gulnara, exerting excessive influence, which drives away investors and exacerbates poverty," the report states.

Because government repression currently is keeping a tight lid on societal discontent, a false sense of security may be hovering over Uzbekistan at present. "The political scene is full of uncertainty. The apparent public apathy reflects not support for the regime, but rather pervasive fear and a sense of hopelessness," Templer said.

According to the report, the international community has virtually no means at its disposal to promote a stable transition of authority. Uzbekistan has succeeded in estranging a large number of foreign governments, international agencies and NGOs; and only token gestures of reform have been made in response to EU sanctions imposed after events in Andijan in 2005.

Alain Délétroz, Crisis Group Vice-President for Europe, said that "the Andijan events showed the ineffectiveness of years of Western �engagement’ with this kleptocratic, repressive regime. There is little outsiders can do for now to influence events inside Uzbekistan, but it is important to support ordinary citizens, as well as to help the country’s neighbors prepare to withstand the regional shocks that are likely when Karimov finally leaves the scene."

The report speculates that presidential elections slated for December may not actually take place. "Some now wonder if Karimov will even bother with the formality of an official election," the report says.

Possible successors to Karimov include the head of the National Security Service, both the prime minister and the deputy prime minister; a Moscow-based oligarch and Karimov’s daughter, Gulnara. But as the report points out, the Karimovs have accumulated powerful enemies and "the only scenario that would guarantee the [family’s] safety is one in which President Karimov hangs on to power as long as possible."

The report says that Karimov’s continuing tendency to brand independently minded Islamic clerics with affiliation with extremist organizations runs the risk of creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. "The regime cites the �war on terror’ to justify authoritarian policies, but its repression may instead be radicalizing opponents and creating greater future danger," it states. The report catalogues a series of human rights abuses - including murder, torture, extortion, and psychiatric confinement - meted out to dissidents.

Neighboring countries are ill-equipped to deal with civil unrest or economic collapse in Uzbekistan, the region’s most populous and diverse state. The report urges the international community to work with Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan to help these states for contingencies that could arise from potential destabilization in Uzbekistan. "Improving training for border guards and police in issues including refugee law and protection is important," the report says.

Editor�s Note: Deidre Tynan is a freelance journalist who specializes in Central Asian affairs.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

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