Oppposition Leaders Say Azerbaijani Referendum Marred by Fraud

Opposition leaders in Azerbaijan are refusing to accept the results of the August 24 constitutional referendum, asserting the vote featured widespread fraud. The government, meanwhile, maintains that the Azerbaijani electorate expressed near unanimous support for constitutional changes, which, according to some observers, could help President Heidar Aliyev transfer power to his son.

According to Azerbaijan's Central Election Commission (CEC), over 96 percent of voters approved an array of constitutional amendments, the most controversial of which calls for a change in the presidential succession process. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Officials said 88 percent of eligible voters cast ballots.

Opposition leaders characterized the government's results as "total fraud," the Turan news agency reported. Etibar Mammedov, leader of the National Independence Party, asserted that turnout was well under 20 percent, far short of the 50 percent needed to validate the referendum results. Sardar Calaoglu, general secretary of the Democratic Party of Azerbaijan, estimated turnout throughout the country at around 8 percent.

The Musavat Party issued a statement the day of the referendum complaining that the CEC had obstructed the conduct of a free and fair vote by limiting the ability of opposition activists to monitor the vote. Authorities reportedly prevented some opposition monitors from witnessing the counting of ballots. Representatives of an opposition coalition, speaking at a news conference August 26, noted numerous voting irregularities, including votes cast by dead people and ballot box stuffing. Opposition monitors who attempted to register procedural violations were reportedly detained at local police stations, Turan reported.

Government officials brushed off accusations of fraud. Ali Ahmadov, the executive secretary of the pro-government New Azerbaijan Party, said 26,000 opposition supporters received accreditation to monitor the vote, but only 4,000 took part in observing the referendum. Ahmadov went on to claim that most opposition activists did not engage in vote monitoring throughout the entire day of August 24, Baku-based Lider television reported August 25.

During the run-up to the referendum, presidential aides sought to discredit government opponents, charging that leading opposition parties were receiving financing from foreign organizations and governments. Mammedov and other opposition leaders denied the accusation, saying it was "ordinary libel," the Zerkalo daily reported August 21. David Sip, head of the Baku office of the National Democratic Institute, insisted that US organizations provided only "technical aid" to opposition parties to promote capacity building and information exchanges.

International organizations, including the OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR), had criticized Azerbaijani authorities during the weeks leading up to the referendum for not providing enough time for public debate of the constitutional changes. "It is doubtful that voters will completely understand the heart of the matter," ODIHR's director Gerard Stoudmann said in an interview with Turan on August 22.

Many political observers in Baku believe the key motivation for the referendum was to help President Aliyev transfer executive authority to his son, Ilham. Under one of the approved constitutional changes, the prime minister would replace the parliament speaker as the first in line to succeed the president in case of incapacitating illness, death or resignation. Some suggest that the elder Aliyev might appoint his son as prime minister and then resign.

After casting his referendum ballot, a reporter asked President Aliyev about the possibility of his son assuming the presidency. Aliyev at first countered with his own question: "Why do you ask such a question?" Later, he responded: "Ask those who say this [the dynastic succession theory]. But I do not say so."

A poll of political experts, conducted by Turan in the days before the referendum, showed that opinion was split evenly over whether the constitutional changes would assist Aliyev in transferring power to his son. At the same time, experts expressed skepticism over the opposition's ability to mount an effective challenge to Aliyev's political plans, whatever they are.