Is Washington Exploring a Base Deal with Turkmenistan?

US military officials are denying reports that the Pentagon explored the establishment of an air base in Turkmenistan, a country run by a dictator, Saparmurat Niyazov, who has proven an unpredictable partner in numerous international dealings.

Russian media outlets reported August 30 that Turkmenistan may have agreed to make an air base near the city of Mary available to US forces. A report published by the Interfax-AVN news agency suggested that the US military would use the Mary facility as a replacement for a base in neighboring Uzbekistan. In late July, Uzbek authorities announced that US forces had six months to vacate a base at Karshi-Khanabad in southeastern Uzbekistan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In the same Interfax-AVN report, Russian Air Force Maj. Gen. Nikolai Bezborodov characterized the Mary facility as "one of the best military airfields in the post-Soviet space," located "in the direct vicinity of Afghanistan's northern provinces."

A Pentagon spokesman, Lt. Cmdr. Joe Carpenter, described the reports as "distorted" and "false." He insisted that there is "nothing new in the military-to-military relations" between Washington and Ashgabat. Turkmen authorities have not officially commented on the reports.

Several recent developments have helped fuel speculation about a possible US-Turkmen base deal. On August 23, Gen. John Abizaid, chief of the US Central Command, held talks with Niyazov in Ashgabat. According to a statement issued by the US embassy in Ashgabat, Abizaid and Niyazov "discussed areas of mutual interest, including broad security issues of regional consequence." It added that the US general "reassured" the Turkmen leader that the US presence in Central Asia was solely designed "to stabilize Afghanistan," emphasizing that Washington "did not seek confrontation with any of the nations in the region." According to the Turkmenistan.ru web site, Niyazov and Abizaid also discussed the future of the trans-Afghan gas pipeline project, which would facilitate the export of Turkmen energy to markets in India and Pakistan.

A few days after meeting Abizaid, Niyazov did not show up at a Commonwealth of Independent States summit, held in the Russian city of Kazan. At the August 26 meeting, Turkmen officials announced that Ashgabat was unilaterally downgrading its affiliation to the CIS to "associate member." [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Another source of intrigue is the fact that Mary, a desert oasis in southern Turkmenistan, has been closed to outsiders. One expert, however, dismissed the possibility of a connection between Mary being off-limits and the possible arrival of US military personnel. The air base, according to the expert, is situated far from the city. Thus, there would seem to be no need to restrict access to the city in order to improve security conditions in and around the air base.

Political analysts say a Niyazov decision to give basing rights to the United States would be out of step with his policy course over the last few years. He has sought to isolate Turkmenistan from outside influences that have buffeted Central Asia, including Islamic radicalism and the "color-revolution" phenomenon. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Accordingly, Niyazov has emphasized Turkmenistan's neutrality. In a recent address to CIS heads of state, Niyazov wrote that Ashgabat will "not join or take part in military blocs or unions or in alliances among states that have a regulatory function, and will also not allow military bases belonging to foreign powers to be located on its territory."

Meanwhile, human rights experts cautioned that the United States would be courting a public relations disaster if the Pentagon struck a base deal with Niyazov, who is widely regarded as one of the world's foremost tyrants. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Washington's criticism of Uzbekistan's human rights practices was a major factor in the collapse of the US-Uzbek strategic alliance. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Turkmenistan's rights record is generally recognized as being even worse than Uzbekistan's, raising the question of how Washington could retain credibility as an advocate of democratization if it entered into a close strategic relationship with Niyazov.

"The United States is surely wary of entering into any potential agreement with Turkmenistan. President Niyazov is isolationist, unilateralist, erratic and often deaf to international concerns," said Erika Dailey, director of the Turkmenistan Project, an initiative of the New York-based Open Society Institute devoted to promoting civil society in the Central Asian nation. "The United States recently has made a point of distancing itself from tyrants around the world. The only responsible decision when contemplating support for the trans-Afghan pipeline or the possibility of a US military base would be to continue to distance itself from Niyazov."

Niyazov has a long history of mercurial behavior. At a cabinet meeting on August 22, for example, he announced a ban on recorded music at public events, on television and at weddings. Previously, he ordered the closure of opera and theater in the country, while touting a grandiose scheme to develop a vast artificial lake in the middle of the Turkmen desert. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In addition, Niyazov has proven a fickle negotiating partner, especially in deals concerning the country's abundant natural gas reserves. [ For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Some analysts also have viewed Turkmenistan's position as complicating efforts to break the stalemate in multilateral talks on the territorial division of the Caspian Sea.