“Free and Fair” Elections Still a Dream in the Caucasus - Experts

In Azerbaijan, the October 15 presidential elections are vulnerable to falsification because "the law as it is written will not allow free and fair elections," said prominent Azerbaijani NGO activist Eldar Ismailov. He was one of the featured speakers at an Open Forum at OSI that focused on election conditions in the Caucasus.

Government's effort to promote a dynastic succession, with Ilham Aliyev replacing his ailing father Heidar as president, is undermining civil society development in Azerbaijan, Ismailov continued. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Ilham is now the ruling New Azerbaijan Party's (YAP) candidate for president. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"It would be funny if it weren't such a tragedy," Ismailov said. "I have no problems with the son [Ilham Aliyev]. He is as capable as any other citizen to serve as president. I wouldn't have a problem with his election if it was fair, but it won't be."

The elder Aliyev had been widely viewed as a "guarantor of stability" and could have won previous elections without resorting to manipulation. Nevertheless, Heidar Aliyev supporters engaged in ballot stuffing in order to enhance the president's margin of victory, Ismailov contended. These days, popular support for the YAP is waning, Ismailov said.

"In 2003, it will be difficult for the ruling party to push their candidate through, but they'll do it. I don't know how, but they will," said Ismailov. "It's hard to say that the party will maintain stability in the country. People doubt that the son [Ilham Aliyev] has the same leadership qualities that his father had."

Meanwhile in Georgia, some observers believe that parliamentary elections scheduled for November 2 could mark the start of a process that culminates in a destabilizing conflict between the legislative and executive branches in Georgia.

"These are to be the most competitive elections Georgia ever had," Ghia Nodia, chairman of the Caucasus Institute for Peace, Democracy, and Development, told the Open Forum. "The high level of uncertainty in Georgia after these elections, if the opposition takes control of parliament, could result in a constitutional crisis between the parliament and the president with no way to resolve the situation."

Concern that supporters of President Eduard Shevardnadze will attempt to falsify election results has grown in recent weeks following the collapse of a US-backed plan to rework Georgia's electoral framework. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In response to its dwindling popular support, the Georgian government has increased harassment of opposition groups.

Regional governors and government supporters have exerted influence to hamper opposition activists from carrying out campaign-related activities, said Tina Khidasheli, the director of the Georgian Young Lawyers Association's Rule of Law Program. She cited the beating of 400 protesting students by uniformed police officers as evidence that the government no longer cared about hiding its repressive tendencies. "There probably won't be shootings, but the government will try to make sure the results of the election won't make the public object too much," Khidasheli told Open Forum participants.