EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Domestic Political Uncertainty in Azerbaijan Raise Danger of Renewed Karabakh Conflict

EURASIA INSIGHT

DOMESTIC POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY IN AZERBAIJAN RAISE DANGER OF RENEWED KARABAKH CONFLICT
Igor Torbakov 9/04/03

An escalating domestic political struggle in Azerbaijan increases the odds that fighting with Armenia over the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave will resume, regional observers believe. Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan have deteriorated in recent months, aggravated by shooting incidents along the so-called contact line. Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliyev’s lingering illness is a contributing factor to the growing threat of renewed confrontation.

Azerbaijan’s presidential election is now six weeks away. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Many observers expect Heidar Aliyev’s hand-picked successor, his son Ilham, to emerge victorious in the vote, even if it requires ballot manipulation. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Current assumptions, however, are prone to sudden shifts in Baku’s uncertain political environment, especially if opposition leaders manage to set aside their personal rivalries and nominate a unified candidate.

A widely shared view among political analysts is that, given the existing circumstances in Baku, the Karabakh issue could easily become enmeshed in the struggle for political power. [For background on the Karabakh peace talks see the EurasiaNet archives]. Opening an armed offensive against Armenian forces, some suggest, could rally support around Azerbaijan’s next administration.

During the presidential campaign "various political forces both inside and outside Azerbaijan will step up their efforts in order to use the Karabakh problem to solve the issue of power in the country," an August 27 commentary published by the Moscow newspaper Rossiiskie Vesti predicted.

Another Russian newspaper, Novye Izvestiya, suggested that Ilham Aliyev might seek to build a reputation as a strong leader, as well as try to shift attention away from the potentially contentious election, by attempting the reconquest of Karabakh. "The ruling regime is well aware that after Ilham is elected president the opposition will try to aggravate the situation to show the inability of the newly elected leader to run the country," the Novye Izvestiya commentary said. "To distract the population from the anti-presidential actions, the Azerbaijani armed forces may launch an operation to liberate the occupied regions of the country."

Azerbaijani rhetoric regarding Karabakh has become increasingly bellicose in recent months. Ilham Aliyev did little to ease concerns about renewed hostilities in a recent interview given to the Russian daily Izvestiya. In it, the presidential heir apparent vowed that "Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity will be preserved." He insisted that as a precondition to a political settlement on Karabakh, Armenia must "fully withdraw from occupied [Azerbaijani] territory." Ilham went on to express confidence that "in the nearest future all this [Karabakh’s status] will be resolved." He did not delve into specifics, appearing to pointedly leave open the possibility of an armed option.

A series of shooting incidents during the summer along the contact line separating Armenian and Azerbaijani forces has fueled Baku’s confrontational posturing. An Azeri soldier was reportedly killed in one of the latest incidents, occurring August 25 "in the Agdam direction [in Karabakh]," Azerbaijan’s ANS TV reported. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Vilayat Guliyev blamed Yerevan for the incidents, saying "this tendency [shootings] will continue since disrupting stability in Azerbaijan today meets Armenia’s interests." Guliyev added that Azerbaijan’s military was prepared to "thwart all kinds of provocation," ANS Radio reported.

Armenian officials have downplayed the incidents, accusing the Azerbaijani military of stoking tension. "The Azerbaijani side, pursuing its domestic political aims, has again resorted to actions fraught with unpredictable and extremely dangerous consequences," the Arminfo news agency quoted Armenian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Dzyunik Agadzhanyan, as saying.

In recent years, efforts to negotiate a Karabakh settlement have made no progress. The dim prospects for a breakthrough prompted renewed debate to begin last October in Azerbaijan on the possibility of a resumption of armed operations. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Few observers believed Azerbaijan would take military action as long as Heidar Aliyev remained in charge of the Azerbaijani government. Now that the elder Aliyev has evidently left the political stage, some observers worry that Azerbaijan’s martial rhetoric could back Baku into a corner.

"Only Heidar Aliyev could for a decade preserve a precarious balance [in Nagorno-Karabakh] � neither war, nor peace," said Azerbaijani political scientist Rasim Musabekov. "No one, not a single person who might replace the incumbent president will be able to keep the situation in such a frozen state." Musabekov termed it "very likely" that hostilities could recommence. Other observers share Musabekov’s concern, citing growing frustration in Baku with OSCE mediation efforts.

Behind Baku’s aggressive rhetoric, political observers have questions about the Azerbaijani military’s capabilities. There exists widespread skepticism that Azerbaijan could mount a successful offensive. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Armenian leaders in both Yerevan and the Karabakh capital of Stepanakert do not appear to be intimidated by Azerbaijan’s tough talk.

"We do not believe that any force in Azerbaijan that may come to power would decide to resolve the conflict through military means, as many of today’s opposition were once in power and they know well the consequences of launching new military operations," said Vahram Atanessian, a Karabakh Armenian leader. If hostilities do restart, the Armenian Defense Ministry has said it is prepared to repulse with an Azerbaijani offensive. "If Azerbaijan opts for war it will get one," a Defense Ministry official told the Novye Izvestiya newspaper.

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