Banned Islamic Movement Increasingly Active in Tajikistan

Hizb-ut-Tahrir, the nonviolent but banned Islamic movement that Central Asian presidents often invoke as a terrorist threat, is increasingly active in Tajikistan, especially in the capital, Dushanbe. Tajik authorities are taking steps to counter the movement's efforts to expand its appeal. The rise of Hizb-ut-Tahrir's profile is also a source of concern for mainstream Islamic political leaders, including Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP) leader Said Abdullo Nuri, who on September 4 portrayed the movement as a threat to Tajikistan's stability.

Hizb-ut-Tahrir, which began in 1953 under the leadership of a Palestinian named Taqiuddin an-Nabhani Filastyni, seeks to restore a unified religious government, called a caliphate, throughout Central Asia. Because it operates via semi-autonomous "cells" and because it rejects the legitimacy of secular governments, authorities tend to link the party with violent revolutionary factions like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). While Hizb-ut-Tahrir is not known to condone violence, it nonetheless is undermining the authority of Central Asian governments – and can conceivably stoke support for organizations like the IMU, some experts contend.

While potential Hizb-ut-Tahrir ties to militant organizations such as the IMU are unclear, any organized dissent represents a major threat to Tajikistan, which continues to struggle to rebuild following a 1992-97 civil war. Government officials view Hizb-ut-Tahrir as a major threat. "The probabilities of a Tajik-Afghani border break by IMU militants or Talibs disturbs me today at least," Deputy Prime Minister Saidamir Zuhurov told reporters at a Tajik military exercise near the western border in mid-August. Zuhurov argued that "increasing danger begins to proceed from a Hizb-ut-Tahrir party."

Unlike armed Islamic groups, including the Taliban and the IMU, Hizb-ut-Tahrir relies on nonviolent tactics to promote its agenda. Activists distribute leaflets and books that often contain scating criticisms of regional governments. They also rely on underground meetings rather than public speeches. These techniques make Hizb-ut-Tahrir operatives hard to find and to silence. They also let Hizb-ut-Tahrir members send messages more quickly than the government can suppress or discredit them.

The methods also let Hizb-ut-Tahrir stake new territory with little or no advance warning. On the morning of August 13, residents of several districts of Dushanbe found white folded sheets of paper on their doorsteps. They described mass disturbances taking place in Tashkent and in other cities of Uzbekistan as the result of President Islam Karimov's unpopular policies. The leaflets cited the Uzbek government's decision to double customs tariffs on imports as the cause of widespread small-business bankruptcy. Hizb-ut-Tahrir signed each statement. Residents of northern Tajikistan are used to such propaganda. But the capital has little experience with it. Some analysts say Hizb-ut-Tahrir moved into Dushanbe to provoke Tajik police and secret service, which intensified a crackdown on its members over the summer.

Those Hizb-ut-Tahrir activists who have been caught have received stiff prison sentences. For example, Tajik authorities sentenced two members on August 26 to a combined 21 years in prison.

Kurbonali Muhabbatov, former prosecutor of the Sughd region, says that more than 100 leaders and members of Hizb-ut-Tahrir have been sentenced to imprisonment since 1999 in the north. Experts say that the party may now be reaching out to urban residents who do not know or sympathize with its goals. To date, Hizb-ut-Tahrir has been most popular among Uzbek-speaking people with relatives in the Ferghana region of Uzbekistan. While Hizb-ut-Tahrir may be able to find plenty of unhappiness in Dushanbe, it is unclear how it will differentiate itself from the established Islamic Revival Party while acting as a legitimate political force.

There is room for Islamist movements to grow around the capital. Some estimates suggest that more than 1,500 citizens of Tajikistan study in extremist schools around the region. Nonetheless, Said Ahmedov, chairman of the state's Committee for Religious Affairs, insists that followers of Hizb-ut-Tahrir have limited prospects, a weak base and little support throughout Tajik society. Ahmedov also asserted that Hizb-ut-Tahrir's activities had "slackened" over the summer, the Asia-Plus news agency reported - a contention that recent events in Dushanbe calls into question.

Other countries with more resources have become hosts to active networks of Hizb-ut-Tahrir cells. The organization keeps a headquarters in Western Europe and manages small operations in the Middle East and Central Asia. If Tajikistan really intends to banish Hizb-ut-Tahrir from its capital, it will have to use outright suppression or direct negotiation. Neither course appears likely, local observers say, indicating that new Huzb-ut-Tahrir leaflets may appear in Dushanbe.