Armenia and Turkey Probe Normalization of Relations

Turkey handily won its September 6 World Cup qualifying match against Armenia. But for many the 2-0 final score was not as important as the game's diplomatic outcome. The match appears to have catalyzed an effort to normalize bilateral relations.

In a diplomatic first in the troubled history of Armenian-Turkish relations, a Turkish head of state appeared in Yerevan. President Abdullah Gul spent approximately six hours on Armenian soil on September 6, much of it in the company of his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan. The two watched the qualifying match from behind bullet-proof glass. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

From Sargsyan's point of view, the game was a success, even if the result was disappointing for Armenian football fans. Sargsyan said Gul had extended an invitation to make a reciprocal visit to Turkey, a gesture that the Armenian president termed "a good start."

Gul sounded an even more optimistic note upon his return to Ankara. "Everything will move forward and normalize if this climate continues,'' the state-run Anatolia news agency quoted Gul as saying. "I believe my visit has destroyed a psychological barrier in the Caucasus.''

The Turkish daily Hurriyet reported September 8 that Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan and his Armenian counterpart Eduard Nalbandian during a follow-up meeting agreed on steps that could pave the way for the normalization of bilateral ties. The two foreign ministers reportedly discussed the opening of Turkey's closed border with Armenia, along with the establishment of full diplomatic relations. The two sides also attempted to find common ground on a political settlement to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Gul's office revealed that he will go to Azerbaijan on September 10 to discuss the changing diplomatic situation with Azerbaijani leaders.

The apparent diplomatic goodwill of Armenian and Turkish leaders was not so evident on the streets of Yerevan, or inside Hrazdan Stadium. After arriving in Armenia, Gul traveled around the capital in an armored vehicle. Eight Turkish snipers reportedly worked jointly with an Armenian detail to provide additional security, and 5,000 police stood guard at the stadium during the match.

Protesters from the nationalist Armenian Revolutionary Federation staked out the route from the airport to the presidential palace. Boos and chants of "Recognition" - a reference to the demand that Ankara recognize Ottoman Turkey's 1915 slaughter of ethnic Armenians as genocide - met President Gul upon his arrival at President Sargsyan's residence.

Police trying to clear out the mostly 20-something protestors had to contend with reminders from that past. "When we backed off [before], that's how Western Armenia [modern-day eastern Turkey] became theirs," declared senior Armenian Revolutionary Federation member and former presidential candidate Vahan Hovhannisian when police moved in to remove the demonstrators from one downtown street.

Despite the prevalence of street banners evoking the events of 1915, not all Yerevan residents welcomed the protest and its message.

"Now is the time for solving everything in a more civilized manner," said Lusine Gevorgian, a 37-year-old hairdresser. "If the Turkish president accepted the invitation, we should receive him as a guest. It is another thing that we all wanted our team to win."

But Armenia's past was ever-present, with one sports commentator using it to try to explain the national team's on-the-field loss to Turkey. "Our soccer players did not play well and I think that first of all it was because of the great responsibility [placed on them]," commentator Slava Sarkisian [no relation to President Sargsyan] said on Armenian Public Television during the game. "They carried the brunt of a hundred-year history on their shoulders."

Jan Poulson, the Armenian national team head coach, attributed the loss to the more mundane issue of skill. "I don't think that politics and history played a role here," Poulson told EurasiaNet. "We played against a very strong opponent and did everything we could. We should have been a little more realistic." According to the latest FIFA (Fédération Internationale de Football Association) ratings, Turkey is ranked 10th in the world; Armenia holds 98th place.

Despite the loss, some analysts see long-term gains for Armenia.

"Gul's visit to Armenia by itself is a very positive step for the normal development of future relations between the two countries," commented independent political analyst Richard Giragosian. "The first step has been taken. The next step should be the opening of the Armenia-Turkey border and establishment of diplomatic ties. The issue of genocide recognition will be the most difficult issue above all."

But Ruben Safrastian, director of the Institute of Oriental Studies at the Armenian National Academy of Sciences, cautions that it is still too early to make predictions. "An important achievement is that negotiations will continue," Safrastian said. "The Turkish side appears to be trying to change its attitude towards Armenia and [its reaction] is also conditioned on geopolitical changes happening in the region. By this step, Turkey is trying to solidify its role in the South Caucasus."

The need for Ankara to settle its relations with Armenia before the European Union can accept Turkey's bid for membership likely also played a role in Gul's decision to travel to Armenia, Safrastian added. In a September 5 statement, the European Union termed the visit an "important first step" toward "a full normalization of relations between these two countries."

One Yerevan spectator could only echo that evaluation: "It would have been good if our team had won, or at least scored one goal, but one must accept that there are no losers in this match," commented 57-year-old Armen Mkrtchian. "Peace has won."