Parliamentary Vote Poses Test for Electoral Transparency in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is gearing up for parliamentary elections September 19. Recent polls predict pro-presidential forces should retain control of the legislature. Though lacking the drama of a tight race, many observers consider the election a key test of Kazakhstan's commitment to electoral transparency.

Several public opinion surveys indicate that forces aligned with President Nursaltan Nazarbayev should dominate the election. Analysts, however, have noted of one poll that shows the Asar party, led by Dariga Nazarbayeva, the president's daughter, has steadily lost support in recent months. At the same time, the moderate opposition party, Ak Zhol, has experienced a significant gain in public backing. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The early September poll, released by the Kazakhstani Institute for Socio-Economic Studies and Forecasting, showed Asar with 23.6 percent backing, a 10-point drop compared with a similar survey conducted in March. Ak Zhol, meanwhile, enjoyed over a 12-point gain during the same period, and now has just over 20 percent public support.

Those figures differed significantly from another early September opinion survey conducted by the National Association of Sociologists and Political Scientists (NASPS). That poll showed Asar with 18.5 percent and Ak Zhol with 11.5 percent.

Despite the discrepancy, pro-presidential parties, including Asar, appeared assured of controlling the legislature. The leading political force, according to both polls, is the pro-presidential Otan (Fatherland) Party. Support for Otan stands between 27-32 percent.

The surveys also show that radical Nazarbayev opponents have been effectively marginalized, and are unlikely to have much political influence in the next legislature. Support for the main opposition coalition, comprising the Communist Party and Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (DCK), stands at roughly 3 percent, according to the NASPS poll.

In a region notorious for election manipulation, the Kazakhstani parliamentary campaign has so far been relatively controversy-free. Nevertheless, Nazarbayev critics have complained that state-controlled media, along with outlets run by friends and relatives of the president, have manipulated campaign coverage to favor pro-presidential parties. A consultative body established by the Central Election Commission found that the media outlets targeted by the opposition, especially Khabar and Kazakhstan TV, have not violated statues governing political coverage, according to a Khabar report September 7. In addition, the Ak Zhol party has charged that its main rival, Asar, has exceeded campaign spending limits.

With a friendly parliament apparently assured, the Nazarbayev administration has seemed to treat the election mostly as an opportunity to burnish the country's image. In recent years, a corruption scandal, known as Kazakhgate, along with the controversial convictions of opposition leaders and an investigative journalist, [for background see the Eurasia Insight archive] have cast doubt on Kazakhstan's commitment to democratization.

Nazarbayev has made repeated public appeals for a clean campaign and election, signaling his desire to reestablish Kazakhstan's reformist reputation. The president's desire is reflected by the fact that state television has broadcast a series of debates involving representatives of all major parties. The debates have at times featured sharp exchanges. During a September 3 debate focusing on inter-ethnic relations, for example, a Communist-DCK representative pressed an Otan leader for an explanation as to why Nazarbayev mostly spoke Russian, instead of Kazakh during meetings with international leaders. During the same discussion, an Ak Zhol representative assailed pro-presidential parties for allocating funds to promote electronic balloting, at a time when efforts to encourage the revival of the Kazakh language and culture are suffering from a lack of state financial backing.

Despite the give-and-take during the debate series, some media critics say that the format hampers substantive discussion. Given that there are 12 participants in the each debate, respondents have only two minutes to provide answers to questions.

The true test of Nazarbayev's support for election transparency will come when the ballots are actually counted. Virtually all elections across Central Asia have been tainted by questions concerning the accuracy and integrity of the final results. A parliamentary vote in Kazakhstan that is deemed largely free of vote-rigging would be considered a political triumph for Nazarbayev.

Given implications for election transparency, plans to conduct electronic balloting in some areas have come under intense scrutiny. Critics say that electronic voting will make it easier for authorities to manipulate outcomes. A NASPS survey in August showed a plurality of Kazakhstani citizens favored e-voting, with 44 percent favoring the concept and 24 percent opposing it. The remainder either didn't have enough information to form an opinion, or declined to take a position.

The government appears determined to press ahead with e-voting. The Central Election Commission has endorsed the guidelines for the using the election voting systems, according to a September 6 report by the Interfax-Kazakhstan news agency. At the same time, technical concerns have forced election officials to cancel e-voting plans in some areas, including in the Semipalatinsk region, state television reported September 3.