Eurasia Insight:
ANKARA WARILY WATCHES AZERBAIJANI CAMPAIGN
Mevlut Katik: 9/10/03

Ilham Aliyev, heir apparent to his ailing father Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliyev, paid his first visit to Turkey as prime minister on September 8. After the meeting, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan made clear that a rigged October 15 presidential election in Azerbaijan would mar Baku’s image in ways that Ankara could not ignore.

Close cultural links have helped foster a special relationship between Turkey and Azerbaijan since the 1991 Soviet collapse. Ties have been further strengthened by the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline project. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. While Turkish leaders clearly feel Heidar Aliyev has played a key role in stabilizing Azerbaijan and forging the Azerbaijani-Turkish special relationship, Ankara appears hesitant to overtly endorse a dynastic succession. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"I believe that October 15 will be an important event which will give an impetus to new developments and boost democracy in Azerbaijan," Erdogan said during a joint news conference with Ilham. "With a democratic election, everybody would express their own political will."

Erdogan went on to emphasize that Turkey hoped the elections would encourage stability in Azerbaijan. "Naturally, it is very important that the world community recognizes the results of these elections," Erdogan said.

Given the divisions within the opposition camp, most political observers in Baku believe that Ilham, the candidate of the ruling New Azerbaijan Party, is the clear favorite to win the presidential election. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

However, some believe that, in a fair election, opposition candidates could gain enough votes on October 15 to force a run-off. If such a run-off occurs, Azerbaijan’s major opposition parties have vowed to cooperate, raising the possibility that the ruling party could lose. Because of that possibility, some human rights activists and political observers think the government is apt to engage in fraudulent practices to ensure Ilham’s victory in the first round.

In emphasizing the need for a clean election, Turkish political analysts say Erdogan is hedging his bets. Though Ankara may prefer to continue working with the incumbent authority in Baku, Turkish leaders want to guard against alienating the opposition in the event that they somehow gain power. In addition, Turkish comments may be designed to contain opposition anger that might potentially raise the chances of post-election unrest in Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijani opposition leaders have been outraged by overt signs of support for Ilham made by the US government, saying that such actions increase the likelihood of ballot-box stuffing. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Some opposition figures have suggested that they might try to mobilize popular protests if they deem the election to be unfair.

A commentary published by the Turkish daily Radikal said Ilham Aliyev’s visit showed that Ankara had "stepped back from lending open support" for a dynastic succession. During the news conference, Erdogan seemed to emphasize that Turkey’s relationship with Azerbaijan was not dependent on any particular political personality. He pointedly refrained from mentioning Ilham Aliyev by name when discussing the bilateral relationship.

"During our bilateral meeting and a meeting by the delegations we have agreed that there would be positive future developments between Azerbaijan and Turkey," Erdogan said. "We have agreed on the need to take important steps in this direction."

Ilham Aliyev told journalists that Azerbaijan’s presidential election would conform to Council of Europe norms. He went on to predict victory and said he would count on Turkey’s ongoing assistance. "We need Turkey’s support for the continuation of stability [in Azerbaijan]," he said. If Ilham was frustrated by the lack of a public Turkish endorsement, he did not show it during the news conference.

Meanwhile in Azerbaijan, the election campaign continues to be clouded by allegations of government harassment and intimidation of opposition campaign activists. Among the most prominent recent controversies has been a "poster war."

At the start of the campaign August 16, billboards and posters of President Aliyev and his son Ilham suddenly appeared across Baku and other major cities and towns. Opposition candidates attempted to do the same, but their efforts were reportedly hampered by police and ruling party volunteers, who allegedly tore down opposition campaign material. "This is a usual move on the part of political parties to tear down the posters of the opponent parties," said a Western election expert who spoke on condition of anonymity. "They even train groups of five to six men to do this fast and effectively."

Opposition activists also complain that government officials have placed pro-Aliyev campaign materials on public buildings and have compelled private entrepreneurs to support the ruling party by displaying posters touting Ilham’s candidacy in their store windows.

In addition, authorities have taken action to restrict opposition campaign activities. For example, on September 2, Vurgun Eyyub, the first deputy chairman of the opposition Musavat Party, was prohibited from holding a public meeting with voters in Baku. On another occasion, Sabir Rustamkhanli, the leader of the Civic Solidarity party and one of the 12 presidential candidates, was barred from holding a campaign appearance in the Astara Region. Observers say it is unknown whether such restrictions have been ordered "from above," or whether they are the product of overzealous local officials seeking to win favor among the ruling party elite.

Editor’s Note: Mevlut Katik is a London-based journalist and analyst. Fariz Ismailzade is freelance writer on Caucasus geopolitics and economics based in Baku. He works for Cornell Caspian Consulting.