EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Kazakhstan: President Argues That One-Party Parliament Can Be Engine of Modernization

EURASIA INSIGHT

KAZAKHSTAN: PRESIDENT ARGUES THAT ONE-PARTY PARLIAMENT CAN BE ENGINE OF MODERNIZATION
Joanna Lillis 9/13/07

Having a one-party parliament in Kazakhstan creates a "wonderful opportunity" to foster pluralism and prosperity in the energy-rich Central Asian nation, according to President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

The new lower house of parliament, the Mazhilis, convened September 2. Its first order of business was the endorsement of Prime Minister Karim Masimov’s cabinet, a move that seemingly waived the legislative prerogative of confirming government members. The parliament is dominated by the pro-presidential Nur Otan Party.

Speaking at a joint-legislative session September 3, Nazarbayev insisted that the special August election that handed Nur Otan a dominating majority was free and fair. "On 18 August, we became witnesses to honest, competitive and fair elections. The Nur Otan party won a legitimate and deserved victory in them," Nazarbayev told deputies in the expanded 107-seat Mazhilis, elected for the first time by proportional representation. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Official election figures showed that Nur Otan won 88 percent of the vote. Monitors from the OSCE’s Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights said the election failed to meet international standards. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Nazarbayev called on the party to represent the whole nation. Domination is "not an aim in itself, but a wonderful opportunity to adopt all the laws needed to speed up our country’s economic and political modernization," he told deputies. Nur Otan’s campaign platform and the Nazarbayev administration’s political program are virtually identical: They aim to increase GDP, diversify the economy and improve the healthcare and educational sectors.

The special parliamentary vote was part of a constitutional overhaul, which the Nazarbayev administration has portrayed as the catalyst for an accelerated modernization drive. Even though one of the constitutional changes opens the way for Nazarbayev to become president-for-life, if he so chooses, he has continued to characterize the reforms as aimed at boosting parliamentary authority and fostering party politics.

If that is the case, critics now ask, why did Nur Otan MPs not assert themselves more in the question of the government’s composition? Nur Otan representatives did not make themselves available for comment.

Developments appear to undermine the credibility of the administration’s assertions concerning the new balance of power in Kazakhstan, suggested Rico Isaacs, a political scientist from Oxford Brookes University. "It demonstrates in all likelihood that the amendments were aimed at only strengthening Nur Otan’s role, and not the role of political parties in general," Isaacs told EurasiaNet. "The changes affecting political parties’ ability to have a greater say are minimal and inconsequential in relation to the executive powers of the president."

An election campaign plagued by controversy, a vote count criticized by the OSCE/ODIHR as flawed and the resulting one-party parliament "suggest that the intention of the reforms was to close the political system to pluralism," Isaacs added.

The election result -- which saw all other parties excluded from representation after failing to overcome the 7-percent barrier to win seats -- stifles debate, argues Dr. Ustina Markus, Associate Professor of Political Science at the Kazakhstan Institute of Management, Economics and Strategic Research (KIMEP). "With this parliament it is clear there will be less debate," she told EurasiaNet. "It’s a �yes-man’ parliament, obviously."

In a reminder of the tight discipline expected from the Mazhilis, Nazarbayev recalled new rules banning voting against the party line, which would lead to the deputy being expelled from the party and losing the parliamentary seat. "Our body of deputies must be consolidated around the party line," Nazarbayev said.

As observers pointed to diminishing checks and balances within Kazakhstan’s political system, controversy erupted when TV crews were ejected from the Mazhilis chamber on September 5. Cameramen and photographers were sent to report from another room using a video feed. After the journalistic community condemned the move, the ban was reversed and TV crews returned to the chamber on September 12.

The Mazhilis is chaired by former Deputy Prime Minister Aslan Musin, with Nur Otan vice-chairmen Bakytzhan Zhumagulov and Sergey Dyachenko as his deputies.

The government endorsed by parliament included new ministers appointed in a late August reshuffle. Umirzak Shukeyev, the former governor of the South Kazakhstan Region, was appointed deputy prime minister, Berdibek Saparbayev became labor minister, Bakhyt Sultanov took over as economy minister and Sauat Mynbayev, who headed the Samruk state assets management company, was named energy minister. As part of a Samruk management shakeup, the president’s son-in-law Timur Kulibayev -- husband of Nazarbayev’s middle daughter Dinara Kulibayeva -- was removed from his post as the company’s deputy head.

Analysts linked Kulibayev’s move with the fall of another presidential son-in-law, Rakhat Aliyev, who is wanted in Kazakhstan on multiple charges; Austria has refused to extradite Aliyev, who is being divorced by the president’s eldest daughter, Dariga. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"Nazarbayev has constructed a political system whereby he is the arbitrator of all intra-elite conflicts," said Isaacs. "He balances the different elite groups, so neither one is too powerful. Evidently, Kulibayev’s demotion was linked to the Aliyev affair. Nazarbayev does not like seeing one group winning over the others. � Kulibayev’s demotion from a very important state organization represents the rebalancing of elite groups."

Markus expressed doubt that the star of Kulibayev is waning, pointing to his political savvy and low profile in contrast to Aliyev. "It might just be he is moving to something else. He’s really got lots of fingers in lots of pies," Markus said.

Amid the political realignment, the fate of another Aliyev rival, Almaty Mayor Imangali Tasmagambetov, is being closely watched. Tasmagambetov � who recently joined Nur Otan and has stressed his loyalty to the president - may receive a diplomatic posting as Nazarbayev moves to balance the power groups, analysts suggest.

"[Tasmagambetov has] political legitimacy and capital. As mayor of Almaty he is quite popular - and it could be that Nazarbayev is considering him as a successor," Isaacs said. However, with Nazarbayev set to remain in office until 2012 and possibly beyond, it is too early to speculate on a presidential transition, Isaacs cautioned: "Nazarbayev, as one of the most successful and skilful of the ex-Soviet political operators, always has the ability to surprise."

Editor�s Note: Joanna Lillis is a freelance writer who specializes in Central Asian affairs.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

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