EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Potential Retaliation Fosters Concern Among Expats in Central Asia

EURASIA INSIGHT

POTENTIAL RETALIATION FOSTERS CONCERN AMONG EXPATS IN CENTRAL ASIA

7/26/04
A EurasiaNet Roundup

Americans living in Central Asia watched terrorists attack their homeland through the filters � and fears � of their adoptive countries. EurasiaNet rounded up reports from Americans in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan in the days following the September 11 strikes in New York and Washington.

Sources report access to US embassies throughout the region has been virtually cut off. In Kyrgyzstan, for example, streets near the US embassy in Bishkek have been cordoned off, and Kyrgyz Interior Ministry forces are preventing pedestrians from getting near the building, the AKIpress web site reported. Diplomats have suspended indefinitely many functions, including visa processing. Similar safety procedures have been implemented in Kazakhstan. Not only foreign legations, but also the local offices of foreign corporations are under guard by Kazakhstani security officials.

Many local officials and citizens sympathize with the United States. The Kyrgyz government observed a moment of silence on September 12, and Georgia declared Sept. 14 a day of mourning. But expatriates can find abundant breaches of this sympathy. In Tajikistan, reports one source, authorities jammed the TV signal on the night of the attacks, forcing citizens to watch a national history show instead of news from the U.S. At Bishkek University in the Kyrgyz capital, vandals broke windows and left behind anti-American graffiti. Elsewhere in Bishkek, graffiti reading "F#!k the US" appeared in a busy intersection.

Meanwhile, mainstream Muslims and politicians are maneuvering for political advantage even as they condemn the attacks. According to a longtime resident of Uzbekistan, that country’s chief imam condemned the hijackers the day after the attack. At the same time, says this source, the state-controlled press has "essentially said �I told you so.’" Indeed, Uzbek TV reported in an awfully reproachful tone on September 12. "The Foreign Ministry thinks it should be noted that Uzbekistan was the first UN member state to�put forward an initiative on setting up an international antiterrorist center," it said. Uzbekistan has been struggling to contain Islamic militants since 1999, when radicals were accused of mounting an unsuccessful assassination attempt against President Islam Karimov.

Some expatriates are concerned that potential US retaliation for the September 11 attack, particularly a counter strike against Afghanistan, could trap them in a war zone. A few expats said they were keeping a lower profile, not wanting to attract unwanted attention to themselves.

A source in Dushanbe reported that Western journalists have descended on Tajikistan, which may be a precursor to a US attack on Afghanistan. Many Tajiks are worried that a US attack on Afghanistan could cause a refugee crisis. Officials and nongovernmental organizations say they are unprepared to handle a large flow of refugees. "The situation would be unpredictable, and the capacity of international relief agencies would hardly be sufficient to cope," says the source.

The shocking image of an imploding World Trade Center has made it open season for the circulation of rumors. Stories circulate widely that Russia may offer its bases in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan to support a Western campaign in Afghanistan. If this happens, it would keep security extremely tight for Americans in these countries. Or expatriates would have to leave the countries.

Speculation about the September 11 attacks and their consequences sometimes borders on hysterical. NewsRu, a web site with dubious credentials, apparently stated that Russia and the U.S. would bomb Afghanistan beginning October 3. In the Caucasus, Azerbaijani TV on September 12 insinuated that "Armenian terrorist organizations such as Hnchak and ASALA [Armenian Secret Army for the Liberation of Armenia]" might have helped orchestrate the events of September 11.

Americans with access to round-the-clock news have learned to treat such fiction skeptically. But for Americans in Central Asia such reports can heighten anxiety.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

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