Uzbekistan Employing Divide-and-Rule Tactics to Keep Radical Islam in Check

With Uzbek President Islam Karimov expected to submit to a presidential election by the end of this year, the Uzbek government is promoting policies designed to divide moderate, practicing Muslims from radical activists. The divide-and-rule tactics are seen as a means to help stabilize the country ahead of a potentially disruptive vote.

Uzbekistan has found itself in constitutional limbo in 2007, with Karimov's supporters and critics offering differing interpretations of provisions on presidential tenure. Critics insist that Karimov's mandate expired in January of this year. Administration officials, meanwhile, believe the president's term runs through the end of 2007.

Accepting the government's view, a presidential election constitutionally must be held in the latter part of December this year. Yet, the government has yet to confirm that the vote will actually take place, and the Uzbek press has been conspicuously silent on the topic.

The clock is now ticking, as, according to Uzbek legislation, a vote must be formally announced at least three months before election day. In this particular case, the election would be held on December 23, meaning that an official announcement must come no later than September 23.

The Karimov administration's hesitancy is understandable given the restive state of society. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Uzbek authorities have been able to maintain a surface calm only through the use of relentless repression.

A recent report issued by the International Crisis Group (ICG) cautioned that a political transition in Uzbekistan has the potential to turn violent. "The international community must brace for civil conflict in Uzbekistan when the dictatorial president, Islam Karimov, leaves office," the report stated. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Karimov has given no indication that, election or not, he is willing to step down. At the same time, in perhaps tacit recognition of the validity of ICG's assessment, the Uzbek government has, since the start of 2007, diversified its approach toward practicing Muslims. While the administration remains as tough as ever toward radicals, both real and perceived, it has implemented a few measures designed to prevent moderate elements from moving into the radical camp.

The government's far-reaching crackdown on freedom of conscience has become a source of widespread discontent among Muslims in Uzbekistan. With an election looming, Karimov has been trying to soften his image. "More than 90 percent of the country's population identifies itself with Islam," explained a Tashkent political analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity. With the policy changes introduced so far this year, "Karimov is telling the country's Muslims: