Georgian President Gains a Shadow Rival

Just call him the Elvis of Georgian politics. Many sightings, none confirmed. Since his departure from Georgia's public arena in late 2006, former defense minister Irakli Okruashvili has reportedly been a busy man; setting up a political party, forming a parliamentary faction and even opening a party office. The one thing that he has not done is corroborate any of it.

For many Georgian media outlets, though, the lack of confirmation does not seem to matter. In recent weeks, there has been feverish speculation that the 34-year-old Okruashvili is preparing to emerge as an opposition figure to President Mikheil Saakashvili.

The media buzz started this summer, when a pro-opposition Tbilisi daily published several unattributed reports alleging that Okruashvili was planning to form a political party. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The reported announcement date, however, passed without the expected fanfare.

Recent political developments have helped revive speculation concerning Okruashvili's intentions. Over the past week, a flurry of media reports focused on the possible formation of a new parliamentary faction in support of Okruashvili, who is not a member of parliament.

Meanwhile, Saakashvili on September 12 removed Mikheil Kareli, a close Okruashvili ally, as the presidential representative to the Shida Kartli region. Some political analysts interpreted the president's move as confirmation that a realignment of political forces is afoot. Kareli, long the target of smuggling allegations, was removed after protesting the government's decision to arrest several officials in the regional center, Gori, on corruption charges. Saakashvili has described the move as an attempt to break up a "clan" within the government.

"It is difficult to believe that the arrests were not politically motivated," commented Ghia Nodia, director of the Caucasian Institute for Peace, Democracy and Development in Tbilisi. [Nodia also serves as the board chair of the Open Society Georgia Foundation, which is affiliated with the Open Society Institute (OSI) in New York. EurasiaNet operates under OSI auspices].

If Okruashvili "was not in real opposition to Saakashvili," the president likely would not have felt compelled to remove Kareli, reasoned Malkhaz Matsaberidze, a professor of political science at Tbilisi State University. Even so, the evidence that Saakashvili and Okruashvili are political opponents remains circumstantial. "[R]emember that Saakashvili and Okruashvili have never publicly argued," Matsaberidze said.

News coverage on the privately owned, but decidedly pro-presidential Rustavi-2 television channel appeared to confirm that Saakashvili now regards Okruashvili as a political foe. Recent Rustavi 2 reports vilified Kareli as "uneducated" and "unprofessional" Analysts believe the true target of these attacks was Okruashvili. The station termed a subsequent meeting between Kareli and supporters, including the former defense minister, as "conspiratorial" in nature. It also cautioned viewers darkly that "[t]he party does not have a name, but its political surname is Okruashvili."

Amid all the speculation, Okruashvili has refrained from speaking publicly about his plans. Apart from a brief wave to television cameras on the day of his meeting with Kareli, Okruashvili has generally eschewed media attention.

The fact that the former minister broke with the government is a major factor in his present popularity, Matsaberidze suggested.

"He left the government," Matsaberidze said, referring to Okruashvili's November 2006 decision to resign as the minister of economic development after being removed from the defense ministry. [For details, see the Eurasia Insight archive]. "He is seen as a martyr of the government... There are a lot of people who are critical of the government and they see Okruashvili as one of them."