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EURASIA INSIGHT

US-TURKISH TALKS ON IRAQ PEACEKEEPERS REVOLVE AROUND KURDISH QUESTIONS
Kaan Nazli 9/19/03

The Turkish government is taking a cautious approach on the question of sending peacekeeping troops to Iraq. Ankara is wary that troop deployment could reignite armed conflict with Kurdish separatists. The issue also has the potential to create a rift within in Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP).

In recent weeks, Turkey and the United States have tried to reestablish a close working relationship seriously damaged during the outset of the US-led invasion of Iraq. The deployment of up to 10,000 Turkish peacekeepers in Iraq, possibly in the north and west of Baghdad, has figured prominently in recent discussions.

Turkey has expressed reluctance to commit troops to help stabilize northern Iraq, an area that features a considerable amount of tension between the indigenous Kurdish and Turkoman communities. Erdogan acknowledged September 16 that Turkey and the United States have a mutual interest in reestablishing order in Iraq. However, it appears that Ankara would prefer to have a UN mandate in place before Turkish peacekeepers move in. Turkey’s National Security Council met on 19 September to take up the deployment issue again, but the meeting failed to yield a concrete announcement.

The Turkish government’s caution is understandable given the potential consequences of deployment. A significant challenge for Erdogan is maintaining party unity. Already signs of a possible rift are apparent. Some AKP legislators have expressed opposition to deployment, and Parliament Speaker Bulent Arinc, who exerts great influence on AKP deputies, has indicated that he has reservations.

Despite the evident reservations, many political observers believe that, in the event the government decides for deployment, Erdogan will find it far easier to secure parliamentary approval for the move than it was to secure acceptance for temporary US military basing rights. Parliament’s decision in March to reject the US request for bases caused a rapid souring of bilateral relations. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

On the peacekeeping issue, political analysts believe that the army would be willing to offer visible, public backing for a government decision to deploy, thus facilitating parliamentary approval. The Turkish military, perhaps the country’s most influential institution, was restrained in its approach to the US basing rights debate.

A more serious concern for the Turkish government is the impact that deployment would have on the country’s Kurdish question. US Secretary of State Colin Powell has acknowledged that Turkish deployment would be a source of deep concern for Kurds in northern Iraq. Iraqi Kurdish groups -- including Massoud Barzani’s Kurdistan Democracy Party and Jalal Talabani’s Patriotic Union of Kurdistan have urged the United States not to agree to Turkish peacekeepers in northern Iraq. In a recent statement, Powell called on Kurdish leaders to be open minded on the issue.

Perhaps more worrying from the Turkish perspective is the presence of the Kurdish rebel group Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), also known as KADEK, in northern Iraq. The PKK has emerged as a focal point in the ongoing US-Turkish negotiations over deployment. Turkish authorities reportedly insist that any Turkish cooperation in northern Iraq include some sort of US commitment to contain, or even eliminate PKK forces in the region.

Turkish concerns have increased in recent weeks, following a September 2 decision by PKK leaders to renounce a four-year ceasefire with Turkey. The PKK launched its armed struggle to create an ethnic homeland in southeastern Turkey in 1984. More than 30,000 people have died in the conflict, though violence largely subsided after the 1999 capture of the group’s leader Abdullah Ocalan. The Turkish parliament in July adopted an amnesty law aimed at encouraging PKK fighters, mostly based in Iraq, to lay down their arms. But the amnesty did not meet the group’s demands that all rebels receive a full amnesty, and be allowed to participate in political life.

Turkey already has a limited military presence in northern Iraq, mainly to keep an eye on the estimated 5,000 PKK militants, as well as on other Kurdish factions in the area. Turkey remains deeply suspicious of any move for independence by Iraqi Kurds.

Clashes with PKK guerrillas in northern Iraq, or any resurgence of the Kurdish rebellion inside Turkey could damage Ankara’s bid to join the EU. EU members criticized Turkish military operations in the 1980s and 1990s, with charges of torture and other abuses. The resumption of hostilities could strengthen support for right-wing groups in Turkey and decelerate the AKP government’s progress in passing reforms in line with EU criteria, particularly reforms expanding minority rights.

Editor�s Note: Kaan Nazli is a research analyst in Eurasia Group.

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