US Moves Against Afghanistan Cause Concern in Neighboring Tajikistan

US moves to retaliate for the September 11 terrorist attacks places Tajikistan, one of Afghanistan's northern neighbors, in a tough position. Tajik leaders are struggling to maintain stability in a country still recovering from the effects of civil war. They are anxious to crush the regional threat posed by Taliban-sponsored radical Islam. At the same time, officials worry that a possible US blitz on Afghanistan will cause a humanitarian crisis that overwhelms Tajikistan.

Tajik authorities have declared their readiness to collaborate with the United States in combating international terrorism. However, Tajik Foreign Ministry spokesman Igor Sattarov vigorously denied reports that Tajikistan had consented to host US forces that might carry out raids against Afghan targets. Despite the Tajik government statements, sources in Washington told EurasiaNet that US warplanes were being deployed to both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Tajik participation in a US-led alliance is complicated by the fact that the main domestic political opposition comes from the Islamic Renaissance Party, which dominated the anti-government United Tajik Opposition during the 1992-97 civil war. Some opposition leaders oppose what they perceive as a US desire to wage war against Muslims. According to a Kazakhstan Commercial Television report, opposition leaders have threatened to renounce the 1997 peace accords if the Tajik government collaborates with the United States in attacking Afghanistan.

Since the September 11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, Tajik public sentiment has been sympathetic to the suffering in the United States. But some Tajik officials warn that public opinion could quickly shift against Washington.

"If the United States launches attack against Afghanistan, which will cause casualties among the civilian population, and damage to economic objects and cultural relics, it will become itself like the terrorists," said Ibrahim Usmonov, chairman of the Tajik parliament's International Affairs Committee.

"In this case [of an indiscriminate US attack] confrontation between the Islamic world and Christian world will increase to very dangerous levels," Usmonov added. "It is impossible to overcome evil through evil."

Tajikistan is a mountainous country of 6.6 million that is roughly the same size as the state of Wisconsin. Per capita GDP is $1,140, making it one of the poorest countries in the world. An estimated 80 percent of the population lives below the poverty line.

Keeping the Tajik peace process on track has posed a constant challenge for the government of President Imomali Rahmonov. Under the terms of the peace accords, opposition UTO leaders and troops were incorporated into government structures. But relations between Rahmonov and his civil war foes remain tenuous. Also, renegade bands of former anti-government troops have continued to cause disruption. The government has struggled to contain criminal gangs and lawlessness. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives]. In addition, the damage done to Tajikistan's infrastructure during the conflict is far from repaired.

The ongoing civil war in Afghanistan is another major factor influencing the Tajik recovery process. Tajik authorities, eager to prevent the spread of instability from Afghanistan to their own country, have relied on Russian border guards to patrol the frontier. Tajik radio reported September 18 that the Russian 201st Division, which is stationed in Tajikistan under the 1992 Collective Security Treaty, has been placed on heightened alert.

In Afghanistan itself, ethnic Tajiks are prominent in the so-called Northern Alliance, which is battling Taliban forces for control of northern parts of the country. Given the strong ethnic ties, Tajikistan is a prime destination for refugees seeking to escape the violence in northern Afghanistan.

Tajikistan has an extremely limited capacity to cope with refugees. For over one year, about 10,000 Afghan refugees have been living in squalid camps on the islands on the bank of the Pyanzh River, which forms the Tajik-Afghan border.

The widespread concern in Tajikistan is that a US attack against the Taliban, who host terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden, will cause a refugee crisis that would destabilize Tajikistan and other neighboring states.

According to the Dushanbe-based Asia-Plus news agency, no large group of refugees has yet sought to enter Tajikistan from Afghanistan. However, 20,000 displaced persons are reportedly massed on the Afghan-Pakistani border. In addition, Taliban units launched on September 18 new attacks on Northern Alliance forces. Such developments are fueling a sense of trepidation in Tajikistan.