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EURASIA INSIGHT

AZERBAIJANI ELECTION CAMPAIGN ADOPTS MORE CONFRONTATIONAL TONE
9/23/03

Election rallies in Azerbaijan’s provinces have drawn surprisingly large crowds, invigorating opposition efforts to unseat the Aliyev administration in the October 15 presidential poll. Observers say that as a result of President Heidar Aliyev’s lingering illness, many Azerbaijanis are less fearful about publicly expressing support for opposition candidates.

The presidential campaign has assumed a more confrontational tone in recent days. Opposition candidates have embraced aggressive tactics, focusing a significant amount of time and resources on tapping into anti-government sentiment beyond Baku. Many Azerbaijani citizens living in outlying regions reportedly feel that the benefits of the country’s oil and gas wealth have not sufficiently trickled down from the capital to the countryside.

The government has responded with shows of force -- an indication that it is alarmed by the extent of the frustration in the provinces. In recent days authorities have gone to great lengths to disrupt opposition rallies. For example, they tried to block access roads over the weekend of September 20-21 to prevent opposition supporters from attending rallies in Lenkoran and Massali. Despite such efforts, rally attendance far exceeded opposition leaders’ expectations. The Lenkoran rally, for instance, drew an estimated 15,000. The opposition Azerbaijan National Independence Party-Popular Front coalition sponsored both rallies.

In addition, authorities have resorted to force in attempting to break up several recent opposition events. According to a Turan news agency report, a group of about 200 people attempted to cause havoc at the Massali rally. The most serious instances of violence, however, occurred during campaign events organized in Baku by the opposition Musavat Party. Hundreds of Musavat supporters were injured during clashes with riot police in the Yasamal and Nizami districts of the capital, Turan reported.

US Ambassador to Azerbaijan Reno Harnish, in comments published by Turan, expressed concern about the weekend clashes. "If true, these incidents would negatively impact the presidential campaign," Harnish said, adding that US officials "expect [Azerbaijani] authorities to enforce the law and preserve public order in a manner that is prudent and non-violent."

Opposition leaders profess not to be intimidated by the government’s forceful approach. They also hint darkly that the government’s use of force could prompt reciprocal action. "We are warning authorities that they are playing with fire by using force against the population," Musavat Party leader and presidential candidate Isa Gambar told Turan. "This might lead to unpredictable and grave consequences."

Etibar Mamedov, the National Independence Party candidate for president, suggested that government attempts to influence the election would backfire. [For background information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. "Authorities want to frighten people and by such actions compel presidential candidates to stand down," he said. "But this will not happen. We shall continue our activities and gain victory."

In comparison to earlier elections, voters during this year’s campaign appear to more willing to express political opinions in public. Some observers contend that President Aliyev’s health woes -- which have forced the ruling New Azerbaijan Party to initiate an awkward dynastic political transition -- have damaged the administration’s in-control image. The absence of a strong authority figure, in turn, has lowered the fear factor among opposition supporters.

"People are no longer afraid. Aliyev’s absence has emboldened them. We haven’t seen such numbers turn out in the regions since the days of the independence movement. People are saying �no’ to monarchy," said Hikmet Hajizade, an analyst with the independent FAR Center.

Apparent confusion in top government circles concerning campaign strategy has also served to embolden the opposition. Despite the fact that President Aliyev has not been seen in public for months, some officials continue to maintain that he will be a candidate in the October 15 election. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. For instance, Ramiz Mekhtiyev, chief of Aliyev’s staff, told journalists in Baku that the president’s health was improving and that he would return to Baku towards to end of September. The elder Aliyev remained intent on campaigning for reelection, Mekhtiyev indicated. Such talk would seem to undermine the candidacy of Aliyev’s son, Ilham, who is also running for president under the ruling party’s banner. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

For his part, Ilham in recent days has sought to boost his international profile as he tries to burnish his image as Azerbaijan’s heir apparent. His one-on-one meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, held on the sidelines of the recent CIS summit, received widespread coverage in Azerbaijani media. [For additional information on the CIS summit see the Eurasia Insight archive]. On September 22, Ilham departed for New York, where he is scheduled to address the United Nations General Assembly.

Opposition supporters have said it is improper for Ilham Aliyev to represent Azerbaijan at such CIS and UN gatherings. They point out that Ilham is on a leave of absence from his duties as prime minister so that he can run as a candidate in the presidential election. He thus, technically, does not hold any government post at present.

Even though opposition support has proven resilient, many international observers still view Ilham as an overwhelming favorite to win the election. The opposition’s continuing inability to present a single challenger should facilitate Ilham’s triumph, they say. Experts also believe that the government may resort to fraud to ensure a dynastic succession. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Some international officials warn that any attempt to falsify the election results could have severe social consequences for Azerbaijan. "There is an explosive situation now in Azerbaijan. If the elections are falsified, they will be followed by catastrophe," Andreas Gross, rapporteur for the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE), told the Echo daily.

Opposition media confirms Gross’ assessment that any attempt to rig the vote could provoke violence. In an editorial in its September 22 edition, Yeni Musavat wrote, "It is clear from our meetings with the people that if the government tries to falsify the elections, people will fight for their votes," said a September 22 commentary published by the Yeni Musavat daily. "They’re ready to fight."

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