Azerbaijani Election Campaign Adopts More Confrontational Tone

Election rallies in Azerbaijan's provinces have drawn surprisingly large crowds, invigorating opposition efforts to unseat the Aliyev administration in the October 15 presidential poll. Observers say that as a result of President Heidar Aliyev's lingering illness, many Azerbaijanis are less fearful about publicly expressing support for opposition candidates.

The presidential campaign has assumed a more confrontational tone in recent days. Opposition candidates have embraced aggressive tactics, focusing a significant amount of time and resources on tapping into anti-government sentiment beyond Baku. Many Azerbaijani citizens living in outlying regions reportedly feel that the benefits of the country's oil and gas wealth have not sufficiently trickled down from the capital to the countryside.

The government has responded with shows of force -- an indication that it is alarmed by the extent of the frustration in the provinces. In recent days authorities have gone to great lengths to disrupt opposition rallies. For example, they tried to block access roads over the weekend of September 20-21 to prevent opposition supporters from attending rallies in Lenkoran and Massali. Despite such efforts, rally attendance far exceeded opposition leaders' expectations. The Lenkoran rally, for instance, drew an estimated 15,000. The opposition Azerbaijan National Independence Party-Popular Front coalition sponsored both rallies.

In addition, authorities have resorted to force in attempting to break up several recent opposition events. According to a Turan news agency report, a group of about 200 people attempted to cause havoc at the Massali rally. The most serious instances of violence, however, occurred during campaign events organized in Baku by the opposition Musavat Party. Hundreds of Musavat supporters were injured during clashes with riot police in the Yasamal and Nizami districts of the capital, Turan reported.

US Ambassador to Azerbaijan Reno Harnish, in comments published by Turan, expressed concern about the weekend clashes. "If true, these incidents would negatively impact the presidential campaign," Harnish said, adding that US officials "expect [Azerbaijani] authorities to enforce the law and preserve public order in a manner that is prudent and non-violent."

Opposition leaders profess not to be intimidated by the government's forceful approach. They also hint darkly that the government's use of force could prompt reciprocal action. "We are warning authorities that they are playing with fire by using force against the population," Musavat Party leader and presidential candidate Isa Gambar told Turan. "This might lead to unpredictable and grave consequences."

Etibar Mamedov, the National Independence Party candidate for president, suggested that government attempts to influence the election would backfire. [For background information see the Eurasia Insight archives]. "Authorities want to frighten people and by such actions compel presidential candidates to stand down," he said. "But this will not happen. We shall continue our activities and gain victory."

In comparison to earlier elections, voters during this year's campaign appear to more willing to express political opinions in public. Some observers contend that President Aliyev's health woes -- which have forced the ruling New Azerbaijan Party to initiate an awkward dynastic political transition -- have damaged the administration's in-control image. The absence of a strong authority figure, in turn, has lowered the fear factor among opposition supporters.

"People are no longer afraid. Aliyev's absence has emboldened them. We haven't seen such numbers turn out in the regions since the days of the independence movement. People are saying