Azerbaijanis Ponder: To Vote or Not to Vote?

Azerbaijan's 4.8 million registered voters may have a choice of up to seven candidates in the upcoming October 15 presidential election. For many, however, the major question is not for whom to vote, but why?

As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, public apathy is widespread. "It is not an election. It is a show," commented 34-year-old Baku computer store clerk Timur Abilov. "As in Soviet times, everybody all together will raise their party-membership cards in support of the incumbent president [Ilham Aliyev]. Is there any [genuine] alternative? I do not know other candidates."

On September 18, a visiting delegation from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) expressed concerns "about a presumed lack of public interest" in the vote. President Aliyev, who succeeded his father, Heidar Aliyev, as president in 2003 in a ballot that was widely deemed as falling short of international standards, is expected to triumph easily on October 15. None of his six challengers has managed to mount a serious threat.

With the slogan "Move forward with Ilham!" the Aliyev campaign is emphasizing its stewardship of Azerbaijan's booming economy, which is driven by energy exports. The president's team has asserted that it has "thought-out programs" and "specific actions" to keep growth on track. Recent large-scale rallies in northern and western Azerbaijan have underlined the message.

By comparison, Aliyev's six rivals offer a hodge-podge of populist promises or, in some cases, offer no campaign platform at all.

Registered as an independent candidate, Gulamhusseyn Alibayli, a former adviser to Azerbaijan's first president, Abulfaz Elchibey, established his own party -- the Aydinlar (Intellectuals) Party -- on September 23. Alibayli calls for restraining the role of the president and giving more power to parliament.

Three other candidates focus on social welfare issues and fighting corruption, ongoing topics of voter interest as Azerbaijan's energy wealth steadily increases. Details are scarce, but the populist slogans are omnipresent.

United Popular Front of Azerbaijan Party Chairman Gudrat Hasanguliev urges voters to "believe in yourself and in us," while Iqbal Agazada, leader of the tiny opposition Hope Party, features a slogan; "do not pin hope on power. Make HOPE powerful." Another opposition candidate Fazil Gazanfaroglu, chairman of the little known Great Establishment Party, has settled for a time-tested maxim; "believe in truth, believe in the people."

The remaining two candidates -- Hafiz Hajiyev, chairman of the Modern Musavat Party, and Fuad Aliyev, leader of the Liberal Democratic Party -- are not yet actively involved in the campaign. Commented 26-year-old Baku resident Vugar Mammadov about the electoral options: "maybe, they are not such bright politicians, but they have been in politics a long time. If everybody thought the same, then nothing would be changed in this country. I have a vote in these elections, and I will go and will use this right."

Azerbaijan's main opposition parties, doubting that the electoral playing field is even, are sitting out the presidential vote.

Sounding an optimistic note, the PACE delegation noted that "with seven presidential candidates registered, a plurality of choices and competitiveness are to be expected." But the PACE delegation also noted that it was "most unfortunate" that five leading opposition parties were boycotting the election.

Those boycotting include Azerbaijan's most experienced opposition forces and politicians: the Azadlig (Freedom) bloc, which comprises the Popular Front of Azerbaijan, the Liberal Party, the Citizens and Development Party, along with the Musavat Party, and Eldar Namazov, a former advisor to late President Heidar Aliyev and a leading member of the opposition Yeni Siyaset (New Policy) bloc.

The group has announced plans to hold mass protests to criticize Azerbaijan's "undemocratic environment," and what it contends is a patently unfair election code. A petition has already been filed for a demonstration on September 28 in downtown Baku.

The PACE delegation argues that an election boycott is unjustified. "Even if a political party and its leaders fail to see clear prospects of getting voted into power, or they feel that their democratic rights are being limited or even violated, they should nonetheless participate in the electoral race in the interests of their supporters," the delegation's September 18 statement said.

Changes to the election code and to public demonstration regulations, as advised by the Council of Europe's Venice Commission, "should create conditions for a good election," the PACE statement added. Another recommendation -- the equitable distribution of election commission seats between opposition and pro-government representatives -- was not adopted.

Local observers say that the boycott has played a significant role in dampening public interest in the vote. Arzu Abdullayeva, president of the Helsinki Citizens' Assembly-Azerbaijan Committee, expects a lower turnout in October than during the 2003 presidential election. In a poll taken by Abdullayeva's organization among 150 voters in Baku and Ganja, "[m]any respondents considered the opposition's boycott as a signal that they should not go and take part in the voting," she said.

To stir up voter interest, the Coordinating Council of NGOs for Free and Fair Elections, of which the Helsinki Citizens' Assembly-Azerbaijan Committee is a part, has printed special newspaper supplements that explain voting procedures, spell out criteria for voter registration, and encourage voters to head to the polls.

Another domestic observer coalition, Free, Transparent and Fair Elections, is monitoring 50 local election commissions and plans to conduct an exit poll in 600 polling stations in 60 different constituencies. Eldar Ismaylov, the co-leader of the group, argues that the lack of "alternative strong candidates" has affected the quality of the elections.

"Now, the executive branch of government on all levels is not committing election violations, since there is no need for it as authoritative [opposition] politicians are boycotting the elections," Ismaylov said. "During our monitoring, we have found only minor mistakes, while in previous elections they violated the law during the whole election process."

Arif Aliyev, chairman of the journalist union Yeni Nesil (New Generation), which is monitoring campaign coverage with the Council of Europe, notes that broadcast coverage of the campaign has been dominated by the incumbent. "More than 60 percent of the coverage, especially on TV, is dedicated to the president, the government and the ruling party," he said.