Eurasia Insight:
THE POPULARITY OF AN OPPOSITION MODERATE COALITION SURGES IN GEORGIA
9/25/03

An electoral alliance of moderate opposition leaders has taken over the front-runner spot as the Georgian parliamentary election campaign enters the final phase. A crowded political field, however, all but ensures that no single political force will be able to capture control of parliament in the November 2 elections.

Opinion surveys released over the past 10 days shows that a center-right coalition headed by Parliament Speaker Nino Burjanadze and Zurab Zhvania, leader of the opposition United Democrats Party, enjoy the greatest level of popular support at almost 17 percent, roughly 3 percent more than its nearest competitor.

Overall, recent projections indicate that six or more political parties and blocs stand to win seats in the next parliament. Outside of the so-called Burjanadze-Democrats coalition, four parties that are to varying degrees at odds with President Eduard Shevardnadze’s policies appear poised to enter the next parliament: The Labor Party; The Revival Union; the National Movement; and the New Rights movement.

The pro-Shevardnadze For a New Georgia bloc has registered roughly 7 percent support in recent polls, lagging behind all opposition parties, except the pro-business New Rights. Upwards of 18 percent of potential voters remain undecided. Recent surveys have not provided a margin of error.

The surge of the Burjanadze-Democrats coalition, whose campaign slogan is "Revolutionary Changes without Revolution," has caught many political observers by surprise. Early in the campaign Zhvania’s United Democrats was only the fifth or sixth most popular party with roughly 6 percent support. The party’s fortunes rapidly shifted with the addition of Burjanadze.

The incumbent parliament speaker, who is widely viewed as a stabilizing presence in Georgian politics, had refrained from endorsing any political party until after efforts to forge a unified opposition electoral bloc collapsed during the summer. She chose to align with Zhvania in large part because of a shared preference for political moderation.

Zhvania possesses extensive political experience, having served as parliament speaker himself. Before splitting with Shevardnadze, Zhvania also headed the Citizen’s Union of Georgia, the president’s traditional power base. Experience aside, Zhvania’s moderate political philosophy appeals mostly to a narrow sector of the Georgian electorate – the urban and educated middle class. Burjanadze enjoys broad support in Georgia’s regions and her alliance with Zhvania has enabled the United Democrats to tap into new sources of support.

The Burjanadze-Democrats message is playing well outside the capital Tbilisi. Many in Georgia’s provinces fear repeat of the social unrest and violence that dominated the country in early and mid-1990s. That upheaval stripped outlying regions of financial resources and growth opportunities. The coalition appears to have bolstered its control of the political middle ground by producing a detailed economic program, prepared by an expert group led by Vladimir Papava, former minister of economy and now the researcher of the influential think-tank – Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (GFSIS).

"Our supreme goal is to revive economy. With economic development, we will settle other problems, such as social problems and restoration of the country’s territorial integrity," Burjanadze said. Zhvania added that the coalition was making no promises of an economic quick fix. He said a major reason that reforms have not been successfully implemented in recent years is a "lack of political will" on the part of the Shevardnadze administration. Other main opposition parties -- especially the National Movement led by former justice minister Mikheil Saakashvili and Shalva Natelashvili’s Labor Party – have staked out more radical campaign positions, in particular embracing an aggressive stance towards Shevardnadze’s administration. Observers expect the two parties to divide what can be classified as the protest vote.

New Rights, meanwhile, continues to focus its campaign on economic issues. Its core of support is found in Georgia’s regions and among the business elite. The Revival Union, which is headed by Ajarian leader Aslan Abashidze, is widely viewed as a regional party with narrow interests that could emerge as an obstructionist force in the next parliament.

Recent moves to reorganize the For a New Georgia bloc’s campaign are not expected to produce a sudden rise in popular support, political analysts say. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The bloc may be able to register double-digit support, but only at a potentially exorbitant political price, they add.

In order to boost his political fortunes, Shevardnadze has had to make deals with several unsavory figures from among Georgia’s political and economic elite, including the controversial media tycoon Badri Patarkatsishvili and the head of Abkhazia government-in-exile Tamaz Nadareishvili, who advocates a military solution for the Abkhazia question. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

As a result of the presidential political maneuvering, the For a New Georgia bloc finds its base of support skewed towards radical right and nationalist forces. This shift appears bound to make some of Shevardnadze’s traditional supporters – members of the older-generation academic and arts intelligentsia -- uncomfortable.

Political analysts say there is no way at present to predict who will be in position to form Georgia’s next government. The existing strength of the Burjanadze-Democrats coalition puts it in position to set the tone for the final month of campaigning. But how much influence the coalition will have after the votes are counted remains unclear. What does seem clear is that, barring widespread fraud, no party will secure a parliamentary majority, thus making a governing coalition inevitable.

A coalition dominated by opposition parties cannot be considered a certainty, experts contend. If the race remains as close as it is now, the votes of the majoritarian MPs – candidates elected from single-mandate districts - may prove decisive in the new parliament.

Editor’s Note: Jaba Devdariani is a founding director of the United Nations Association of Georgia (www.una.org.ge) and Research Director of its program for applied research.