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EURASIA INSIGHT

KYRGYZSTAN’S REVOLUTION AT RISK
9/26/05

Kyrgyzstan’s revolution is at risk of unraveling, as the country’s new president and parliament find themselves on a collision course.

Two recent developments – the dismissal of Azimbek Beknazarov as prosecutor general, and the assassination of MP Bayaman Erkinbayev – have lifted the lid off a long-simmering power struggle involving the executive and legislative branches. The incidents also underscored the prominent role of criminal elements in Kyrgyzstani politics.

President Kurmanbek Bakiyev dismissed Beknazarov on September 19. Beknazarov had been aggressively pursuing corruption cases, including several involving friends and relatives of former president Askar Akayev, who fled the country amid the Tulip Revolution in March. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Officially, presidential aides attributed the dismissal to supposed malfeasance in two particular cases, one involving the murder of prominent businessman Abdalim Junusov and the other related to a shooting incident at a hotel in the southern city of Osh. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Presidential allies also expressed dissatisfaction with Beknazarov’s maverick style. "Beknazarov’s actions have crossed some boundaries," said Miroslav Niyazov, secretary of the Kyrgyz National Security Council. "This man has formed a mistaken and inflated idea about the role and place of the prosecutor’s office."

Beknazarov characterized his ouster as politically motivated, linked directly to unease within the executive branch over the prosecutor’s diligent efforts to uncover instances of official corruption. At a September 20 news conference, he alleged that corruption within the top ranks of government was rampant under Bakiyev. A statement issued by a coalition of non-governmental organizations, including Kyrgyz Citizens against Corruption, condemned Bakiyev’s action, saying the executive branch was intent on stopping Beknazarov before he turned his attention on the actions of the incumbent administration. "Bakiyev sacrificed Beknazarov to the interests of criminality," the statement said. "Incumbent authorities are not interested in the struggle against corruption. Organized criminal elements have begun to openly cooperate with officials."

Meanwhile, some political analysts also saw the firing as an attempt by Bakiyev to consolidate his hold over the executive branch. They noted that a political ally of the president, Busurmankul Tabaldiyev, was appointed acting prosecutor-general.

Two days after Beknazarov’s firing, two masked gunmen killed Erkinbayev, a member of parliament and a wealthy entrepreneur, as he was returning to his Bishkek home. Political analysts differed on the possible motive for the killing. Some linked it to politics, as Erkinbayev was one of the catalysts for the March protests in southern Kyrgyzstan that ended up driving Akayev’s administration from power, while others expressed the belief that the murder was rooted in the victim’s murky business behavior.

Beknazarov’s dismissal and Erkinbayev’s assassination have galvanized parliamentary resistance to Bakiyev’s administration. A parliamentary resolution adopted September 22 asserted that "the criminal situation in the country has sharply deteriorated over the past several months." The resolution also sought to dilute presidential powers. It specifically called on the president to consider a reshuffle of his team and urged that Prime Minister Feliks Kulov -- a one-time Bakiyev rival now widely considered seen as a tenuous ally – be given responsibility for carrying out an anti-corruption campaign. In addition, MPs sought to exert greater legislative oversight over the Interior Ministry, the National Security Service and the prosecutor’s office, demanding that the three agencies keep parliament informed on the Erkinbayev murder investigation.

Prior to passing the resolution, MPs assailed Bakiyev’s administration for allowing corruption and criminal behavior to rise to levels unseen during Akayev’s administration. Some criticized the president personally for appointing friends and relatives to important governmental posts. One MP, Kabai Karabekov said the presidential administration "resembles a Mafioso structure."

Bakiyev attributed current problems to corruption within law-enforcement agencies, emphasizing that the difficulties long predated his administration. "It is no secret to anyone that law-enforcement agencies and bandits are to a certain extent working together," Bakiyev said. "This situation didn’t appear yesterday."

The president also fired back at MPs, demanding that they provide "the names of specific relatives of mine who are currently occupying an official post." He went on to accuse MPs of criminal behavior. "You are perfectly aware of what is happening [concerning corruption]," Bakiyev told MPs during the September 22 parliament session. "Among you present here [in parliament] are businessmen who, unfortunately, are often in conflict with the law, and who are evading taxes."

During a public appearance on September 26, Bakiyev sought to redirect attention away from the building conflict between the executive and legislative branches. He called on the government to occupy itself with "stimulating economic activity instead of politics."

MPs seem disinclined to ease up on the administration, however. Many legislators now view Bakiyev’s team as incapable or unwilling to curb the criminal influence in government, political analysts say. On September 23, parliament passed a law granting MPs the right to carry firearms for self-defense. Some MPs are concerned that, in the weeks ahead, Bakiyev may attempt to politically weaken Kulov and, potentially, even try oust him from the government. If the president adopts such a course, it would likely provoke a sharp response from parliament, political observers say.

Another concern is that the political tension in Bishkek could deepen the divide separating residents of northern Kyrgyzstan from southerners. Many northerners associate the rise in crime and corruption with the March revolution, which was led mainly by politicians with southern political roots, including Bakiyev. In a broader sense, the political wrangling is prompting many Kyrgyz to lose faith in the revolution’s potential to bring about a more responsive government. The great popular complaint against Akayev’s regime was that it had grown out of touch with the day-to-day concerns of the population. Now, the perception is growing among Kyrgyz citizens that members of the executive and legislative branches are intent mainly on accumulating personal wealth and gaining control over income-generating state assets, instead of working to improve socio-economic conditions in the country.

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