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EURASIA INSIGHT

NAZARBAYEV VISIT TO WASHINGTON: LOOKING FOR RECOGNITION AS REGIONAL LEADER
Joanna Lillis 9/26/06

Kazakhstani President Nazarbayev is keen to secure global recognition of the Central Asian nation’s achievements � its booming economy, its market reforms and � more controversially � its political reform program. During his four-day visit to the United States, beginning September 26, Nazarbayev will be looking to cement Kazakhstan’s image as a regional leader with a role to play on the international stage.

Over the last 18 months, the United States has experienced a series of geopolitical setbacks in Central Asia. The most severe blow to American interests was the rupture of US-Uzbek ties over the Andijan events of May 2005. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. More recently, US-Kyrgyz relations have been strained by difficult negotiations on a lease extension for the American air base outside of Bishkek, as well as by a spy scandal that caused a diplomatic spat. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In Washington, Nazarbayev reportedly will stress Kazakhstan’s dependability as a friend of the United States.

"This is a very interesting and important visit," Sanat Kushkumbayev, deputy director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, told EurasiaNet. "Astana is attaching great significance to this visit� to the No 1 power."

"In terms of its cooperation with the USA, Kazakhstan has basically done all it can to appear a stable, predictable partner for the USA," Kushkumbayev continued. "We have not tried bargaining with the USA as other countries have. � The USA does not want to be an outsider in the region."

In the days leading up to the visit, Kazakhstani diplomats have stressed the country’s economic prowess and internal stability. "The understanding has in recent years been reinforced that Kazakhstan is a reliable friend and partner with whom the USA has already done much in the war on terror, in preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, assuring energy security and boosting freedom and democracy," the Kazinform news agency quoted Kazakhstan’s ambassador to the US, Kanat Saudabayev.

During a talk at the Asia Society in New York on September 21, Foreign Minister Kasymzhomart Tokayev played up Kazakhstan’s leadership qualities. He noted that Kazakhstan’s energy-export-driven GDP is higher than the combined total of its four Central Asian neighbors. He added that the Kazakhstani leadership is determined to avoid overdependence on oil-and-gas sales, and intends to turn Almaty into an "IT and financial hub."

The portrayal of Kazakhstan as a loyal friend of Washington does not mean that the country will be making a major foreign policy shift away from its current "multi-vector" approach, in which it seeks to build strong relations with the United States, Russia and China. "The USA cannot be the sole and exclusive partner for our country," says Kushkumbayev. "We want a balance of interests and forces� We are giving the signal of expanding cooperation with the USA, as long as it takes account of the interests of Russia and China, and other states."

The multi-vector factor is particularly evident in Kazakhstan’s energy export policy. During his New York appearance, Tokayev said that Kazakhstan planned to export about 100 million tons of oil over the next five years. He added that Kazakhstan was either using, or planning to use export routes via Russia, China, and Azerbaijan. In addition, he expressed interest in exploring an Iranian pipeline deal. "It’s important to have a variety of options to deliver oil to international markets," he said. "Our slogan is: �the more pipelines, the better for Kazakhstan.’"

In upcoming talks with US President George W. Bush and other US officials, the subject of Kazakhstan’s participation in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline is expected to figure prominently. Kazakhstan in June agreed to export oil via BTC. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. US officials wouldn’t mind seeing Kazakhstan up its export commitment, and Astana has sent signals that it would be open to discussing the matter. Some observers believe that in return for expanded energy cooperation, Kazakhstani leaders would hope for a broadening of US investment with the aim of encouraging the diversification of the country’s oil-dependent economy.

Kazakhstan’s democratic record is also expected to be on the agenda during the talks. The Kazakhstani government insists it is pushing ahead with political reform and democratization. Critics say the reforms are window-dressing. They point to flawed elections, a lack of pluralism in parliament, media restrictions, the murder of opposition leader Altynbek Sarsenbayev, trials of opposition leaders and restrictions on the their movements as evidence that Kazakhstan’s democratic record is going backwards. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The United States, via the State Department, has applied some pressure on democracy- and human rights-related issues. During a June briefing, US Ambassador to Kazakhstan John Ordway characterized recent media legislation amendments as "a step backward in the development of press freedoms in Kazakhstan." Such criticism, however, has been eclipsed by praise from top Bush administration officials, including Vice President Dick Cheney. During a May visit to Kazakhstan the vice president lavished approval on Nazarbayev. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

One potential problem area for the visit concerns the OSCE. Nazarbayev has appeared eager in recent months to secure the OSCE chair in 2009 for Kazakhstan. US officials have indicated that they are unlikely to support the 2009 bid, but would be open to Kazakhstani leading the organization at a later date. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Another potential headache for Nazarbayev is his alleged connection in a bribery scandal known as Kazakhgate. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The looming federal trial of merchant banker James Giffen on bribery charges has the potential to embarrass the Kazakhstani president.

Kazakhstani experts, though, aren’t expecting any glitches with Nazarbayev’s Washington visit.
"The US’s priority in the region is above all stability and security, more than human rights and democratization � without understating the role of democracy," Kushkumbayev said.

Editor�s Note: Joanna Lillis is a freelance writer who specializes in Central Asian affairs.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

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