EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Turkmenistan's Embattled Opposition Forges a United Front

EURASIA INSIGHT

TURKMENISTAN’S EMBATTLED OPPOSITION FORGES A UNITED FRONT
9/30/03

The Turkmen opposition movement is striving to regroup from a crackdown launched by President Saparmurat Niyazov in the wake of a supposed assassination attempt in late 2002. The leaders of Turkmenistan’s four main political opposition groups on September 29 established a united front in their effort to topple Niyazov and establish a more open political system.

Opposition leaders announced the creation of the Union of Democratic Forces of Turkmenistan (UDFT) following two days of closed-door meetings in the Czech Republic capital of Prague. It marks the first time that opposition groups have signaled a willingness to cooperate since organized opposition to Niyazov’s regime began in 1992.

The first formal meeting of the new UDFT is planned before the end of the year. Emigré scholar Shokhrat Kadyrov stated; "Of course I’m glad that this has happened. [But] I look at the decision soberly. There have never been any significant disagreements among the political parties. We should have overcome those that existed, and now we have. Now we have some serious work in front of us."

Basic organizational issues, including the UDFT’s leadership structure, remain to be worked out. According to a statement released at the conclusion of the Prague meeting, the UDFT claimed as its operating principles democracy, human rights, and freedom of the media. In striving to oust the incumbent leader, the united front said a top priority would be the drafting of an alternative Constitution, which could provide the legal framework for a post-Niyazov government.

The united front comprises four major groups; the United Democratic Opposition of Turkmenistan (commonly known by its Russian acronym ODOT); the Watan socio-political movement; the Renaissance socio-political movement; and the Republican Party of Turkmenistan. In recent years, opposition groups have largely operated in exile.

The UDFT’s formation is a response to the political crisis in Turkmenistan precipitated by the apparent attempted coup in November 2002. [For background see the Eurasia insight archive]. The circumstances surrounding the incident remain a topic of debate. Some political analysts believe the attempt on Niyazov’s life may have been staged. According to the official account, Niyazov’s motorcade was fired upon in the capital, Ashgabat, but the president emerged unhurt.

In the immediate aftermath of the incident, scores of individuals were arrested and tortured into making confessions of anti-government activities. A series of televised show trials resulted in the conviction of an estimated 68 men, who are now serving prison terms of up to life in prison.

Turkmenistan, which has been led by Niyazov since the Soviet era, has long been known as one of the most repressive and closed countries in the world, in addition to being one of the richest in hydrocarbon resources. The state has complete control of the domestic media, while banning access to foreign media. In addition, Niyazov has established a rigid one-party political system that tolerates no domestic criticism. He maintains ideological control of the Turkmen population through a cult of personality.

Buttressing Turkmenistan’s authoritarian system is a network of informants. Turkmen authorities also rely on the threat of internal exile, torture, unemployment, and police terror to silence opposition. Officials additionally have been known to manipulate the exit visa regime to prevent dissidents from leaving, or to expel "unwanted" residents, such as government critics and non-Turkmen.

According to co-organizer Vitalii Ponomarev, Turkmenistan is the only country in Central Asia where no alternative political parties are allowed to exist. Given Turkmenistan’s hostile political environment, "it is harder to be in opposition than in the government," said Thomas Dine, the Director of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty who presided over a post-meeting news conference.

While President Niyazov loomed large as the target of dissent, meeting participants and journalists following the meeting saved some criticism for the opposition itself. When challenged to explain how they would insure that if one of them came to power they would not develop into "a second Niyazov," most cited the existence of a new constitution and their commitment to oppose oligarchy.

Both Avdi Kuliev, the head of ODOT, and Nurmukhammet Hanamov, co-founder of the Republican Party of Turkmenistan, also acknowledged some degree of complicity with the abusive regime during their respective tenures in high government positions. (Kuliev was foreign minister for several months before resigning in protest in June 1992, and Hanamov, before his defection in 2002, served as Turkmenistan’s ambassador to Turkey and Israel). In his own defense, Hanamov asserted that "Niyazov has changed a lot" and that he himself had spent most of his tenure "in exile."

The meeting, which was co-sponsored by the Memorial Human Rights Center and the International League for Human Rights, is the third since a dialogue among opposition groups began in June 2002. Memorial’s Vitalii Ponomarev noted the "difficult discussions" at times during the process threw into doubt the participants’ ability to reach consensus. But, he stated, "90 percent of the issues and values" of the groups were shared even before the dialogue began.

Reactions to the agreement varied widely among conference participants. Many expressed hope that the Prague agreement could emerge as a turning point in the effort to forge an alternative to Niyazov’s repressive regime. Dissident émigré writer Akmukhammet Velsapar declared, "We have the saying in Turkmen that if four people get together, they can do anything. Today, five people came together� This is the beginning of the end of the Niyazov regime."

Others suggested that the new opposition alliance could stumble as it tries to hammer out the details of cooperation. Exiled poet Shirali Nurmukhammet downplayed the significance of the UDFT’s creation, characterizing the organization as "fictitious marriage." He added: "It won’t last long."

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