Eurasia Insight:
MOSCOW OFFERS AZERBAIJAN A CARROT BUT DOESN'T FORGET TO SHOW A STICK AS WELL
Igor Torbakov: 10/02/00

Like the other nations that have a strategic interest in the oil-rich Caspian region, Russia is keen to strengthen its position in Azerbaijan while the country’s omnipotent but elderly leader, Heidar Aliev, is still at the helm. In recent weeks, Russia has stepped up its attempt to woo Azerbaijan back into its geopolitical sphere of influence, seeking to take advantage of the current friction in US-Azerbaijani relations.

The strained US-Azerbaijani relationship was evident during Aliev’s early September visit to Washington. [For additional information see Eurasia Insight archive]. Aliev lamented that the US Congress had still not rescinded the anti-Azerbaijani resolution – Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act – which was passed in 1992. The resolution imposes economic sanctions on Azerbaijan.

In addition to the sanctions, Azerbaijani authorities have bristled over US allegations that Baku has supported Chechen rebels, and has thwarted democratic development. During the run up to Azerbaijan’s parliamentary elections November 5, the United States has issued a number of strongly worded statements calling on Baku’s ruling circles to closely collaborate with the political opposition and the NGO’s to settle disputes over the electoral process. While Aliev was in Washington, both US and Azerbaijani officials largely avoided the topic of the parliamentary elections. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

In Azerbaijan, the dissatisfaction with US criticism does not appear limited to government circles. Mubariz Ahmadoglu, an independent expert and director of the Baku-based Center for Political Technology and Innovations, sharply criticized the US stance in an interview with the Azerbaijani newspaper Bu Gun. "On the one hand", he said, "the USA is groundlessly accusing Azerbaijan of backing terrorism, while on the other hand it is displaying ‘care and concern’ and wants democratic elections to be held. No doubt, the key point here is the achievement of US interests."

At the same time Ahmadoglu makes an important point. "Authorities will be obliged to turn their backs on the USA if they display radicalism, and the USA steps up pressure on the Azerbaijani authorities. Given such a development, Russia will try to benefit from the situation…"

Ahmadoglu’s prediction appears to be coming true. Having sensed the chill creeping into US-Azerbaijani relations, the Kremlin has rushed into action. Russian rhetoric, which had been highly critical of Azerbaijan for its alleged support of the Chechen resistance, has abated in recent months. [For background see Eurasia Insight archive]. For example, at a meeting with the Azerbaijani ambassador to Moscow, Ramiz Rizaev, Major-General Aleksandr Malinovsky, the chief of the Russian ministry of internal affairs’ department of international cooperation, softened Moscow’s stance on Azerbaijani support for Chechen rebels. The Russian official stated that his ministry doesn’t have sufficient data to confirm the allegations against Azerbaijan. Malinovsky also suggested that the US criticism was attempting to "destabilize good neighborly relations between the two countries [Azerbaijan and Russia]."

Simultaneously, a number of Russian commentators have castigated the US stance on the Azerbaijani parliamentary elections. The influential Nezavisimaya gazeta newspaper, for instance, has accused US officials of behaving "as if they have got a monopoly for [absolute] truth, trying to teach the former Soviet republics a lesson of democracy." Due to such policy, according to the paper, "the Central Asian republics have already turned their backs on the USA."

State Department statements on Azerbaijani election developments, the Moscow newspaper says, "is nothing other than an interference in the internal affairs of the sovereign state." Clearly underscoring whom Moscow supports in the current political contest in Azerbaijan, the newspaper bluntly stated that "today the voices of the Azerbaijani oppositionists can be well heard only due to the American backing."

Since most of the Russian analysts view the internal political struggle in Azerbaijan through the prism of the "Great Game" rivalry, they strongly believe that Aliev’s government meets Russian interests better than any government which might be formed by the pro-American opposition.

Many officials and observers in Moscow now are convinced that Russia might benefit from the transfer of power from Aliev to a designated heir – his son Ilham. "Russia simply cannot allow itself to lose the big Azerbaijani game -- code named ‘The Heir,’" Moscow analyst Aleksei Chesnakov said. While pointing out that a "Syrian scenario" is quite likely in Azerbaijan, and that Ilham Aliev is far more experienced in politics than Bashar Assad, Chesnakov acknowledged that the Azerbaijani heir lacks the level of support that his Syrian counterpart currently enjoys.

However, says the Moscow expert, all this plays quite nicely into Russia’s hands, for "Russia can be a guarantor of the stability of the [Azerbaijani] regime while simultaneously resolving the task of the rebuilding of its overall influence in the Caucasus."

Editor’s Note: Igor Torbakov is a freelance journalist who specializes in CIS political affairs. He holds an MA in History from Moscow State University and a PhD from the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. He was a Regional Exchange Scholar at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington DC, 1995; Research Scholar at the Institute of Russian History, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 1988-1997; and Kiev correspondent for the Paris-based weekly Russkaya mysl, 1998-2000.