Armenia: Former President Lashes Out at Incumbent Administration

A speech by former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrossian, coupled with speculation about his possible candidacy in the 2008 presidential elections, has roiled Armenia's political waters.

On September 21, the 16th anniversary of Armenia's independence, Ter-Petrossian broke nearly a decade of public silence to give a harsh assessment of President Robert Kocharian's administration. The former Armenian leader, who oversaw the country's difficult transition immediately following the 1991 Soviet collapse, said Armenia is run by "a corrupt, criminal regime, whose relations are governed not by laws, not by the will of the people, not by political dialogue, but by the rules of the underworld."

Members of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia, as well as Kocharian, denounced Ter-Petrossian's speech, with the president implying that it would be better for the 62-year-old former chief executive to maintain a dignified silence in retirement. The speech was delivered during an independence celebration organized by Ter-Petrossian's Armenian National Movement Party.

Although most major opposition parties have welcomed Ter-Petrossian's comments for potentially "bringing possible qualitative changes" to Armenian politics, no clear idea exists as to his next step.

Ter-Petrossian himself has said that he is still "studying" the situation, adding that his choices "cannot be guided by emotions." Many analysts, however, think he could emerge as the main rival to incumbent Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian in next year's presidential election. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. When he resigned the presidency in 1998, Ter-Petrossian stated that he would return to national politics if "the people asked him."

"The first president enjoys great prestige and has many years' experience. By entering politics, he will make the [2008 presidential] election contest hotter," commented political analyst Stepan Safarian, a member of the opposition Heritage Party.

After years of refraining from making any public statement or attending any public event, Ter-Petrossian's political comeback first became a topic of discussion this summer, after a series of visits by the ex-president to Armenian regions. "The public has experienced a deep disillusionment with almost all opposition leaders especially after the latest parliamentary elections," said Union of Political Analysts Chairman Dr. Hmayak Hovhannisian. "[A]gainst this backdrop, the first president's return was well-calculated. . . [it] is an expected event and promises a big success."

Not surprisingly given his past, the issue of Nagorno-Karabakh is surfacing as a lightening rod for the Ter-Petrossian camp. On the former president's watch, Armenia gained control of the disputed territory after a six-year conflict with Azerbaijan. Ter-Petrossian's resignation was linked closely to a call that he made in 1998 for Armenia to make concessions to Azerbaijan in order to secure a Karabakh peace settlement. In his September 21 speech, Ter-Petrossian termed the ongoing lack of a settlement with Azerbaijan "the greatest offense" of the Kocharian administration. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

"If you follow Azerbaijan's reactions, then you will see that their position is growing tougher. From now on, they will not agree to any compromise," he said. "I don't know what it is possible to do to get out of this situation. But I repeat, I don't consider this situation hopeless yet. It is possible to try to get back to [being] normal countries."

According to some analysts, the dismal outlook for negotiations with Azerbaijan means that options for resolving the question of Karabakh's status will feature prominently in the upcoming presidential election.

"If you remember, during the previous presidential elections Kocharian was forgiven for vote rigging, since, at that time, he promised to solve the Karabakh problem," said Safarian, who describes the issue as "a focal point" for next year's campaign. A bill introduced to parliament by the Heritage Party that would have recognized Nagorno-Karabakh as an independent country failed in late August, however.

Aside from compromise on Karabakh, Ter-Petrossian has also called for an overhaul of the judicial system and of law-enforcement agencies in an effort to curb politically motivated prosecutions and rampant corruption.

Members of the governing Republican Party, however, take a dim view of the former president's comments. A recent news program broadcast by pro-government Armenian Public Television derided Ter-Petrossian's criticism and showed archival footage of the "cold and dark years" of the mid-1990s under his administration.

Kocharian himself has not given any public sign that Ter-Petrossian's verbal attack created cause for reflection.

In a September 25 media briefing on Armenia's IT sector, Kocharian, who served as prime minister under Ter-Petrossian before replacing him as president, noted that if he decides to re-enter politics, the former Armenian leader will turn into an "ordinary opposition figure with all the ensuing consequences."

"[W]e will have to remind [Armenians] of many things