EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Iran's Flexible Deterrence Policy in Iraq Produces Benefits for Tehran

EURASIA INSIGHT

IRAN’S FLEXIBLE DETERRENCE POLICY IN IRAQ PRODUCES BENEFITS FOR TEHRAN
Ardeshir Moaveni 9/11/03

The realities of Iraq, including Iran’s growing influence in the country, are exerting pressure on the Bush administration to soften its confrontational rhetoric towards Tehran. The subtle shift in Washington’s diplomatic language marks a significant success for Iran’s policy of "flexible deterrence."

Since Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein’s ouster, both conservative and reformist forces in Iran have worried that the US military occupation in Iraq could have a destabilizing effect on Tehran. To counter the perceived American threat, Iran’s flexible deterrence approach has primarily sought to build Tehran’s influence among Iraq’s sizable Sh’ia community. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Iranian efforts to cultivate Sh’ia links have paid fast political dividends. Sh’ia clerics in Iraq, many of whom are sympathetic to Iran’s unique brand of Islamic ideology, now occupy influential positions in Iraq’s new, and still developing political and social order. The prevailing view in Tehran is that strong assistance to Iraqi Sh’ias would, in itself, be sufficient to blunt any US attempt to destabilize the Iranian government. However, Iranian policy makers are taking nothing for granted. A major component of the flexible deterrence policy involves a media campaign. Iranian TV and radio broadcasts deliver several hours of special programs to Iraq everyday.

In addition, Iranian authorities are pushing exiled Iraqi clerics, most of whom found refuge in the Iranian holy city of Qom, to return to Iraq. Tehran hopes that these returning exiles will help consolidate Iran’s influence over Iraqi Sh’ias.

On the political level, the effort to project Iranian power in Iraq is reportedly being handled by the Quds Brigade of the Revolutionary Guards, an outfit that specializes in covert action. During a closed session of the Iranian parliament in June, MPs were reportedly told that, contrary to the customary diplomatic norm, a Quds Brigade officer is being groomed as Iran’s next ambassador to Iraq. The officer in question is reputed to be Brig. Gen. Reza Seifullahi.

The flexible deterrence policy is largely the creation of Iranian conservatives, who have now managed to shunt President Mohammad Khatami and his dwindling reformist supporters to the sidelines of the Iraq policy debate.

Some top Bush administration officials, including Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, have recently grumbled about Iran’s growing influence in Iraq. But policy analysts in Iran believe there is little that the United States can do curtail Iranian activities in Iraq.

Many US policy makers have tacitly acknowledged existing conditions by moderating their rhetoric concerning US-Iranian relations. In recent months, talk of the need for "regime change" in Iran -- mulled during the hubristic period immediately after coalition forces toppled Saddam -- has subsided in Washington. Bush administration officials have likewise backtracked on linking Iran to the so-called axis-of-evil.

In perhaps the most significant gesture to date, the US government in August ordered the closure of Washington office of the anti-Iranian government group Mujaheddin-e-Khalq. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

David Mack, vice president of the Middle East Institute in Washington and a former US envoy to the United Arab Emirates, believes that even when it was first enunciated, the concept of "regime change" in Iran was more a rhetorical device than an actual policy objective. He indicated that such rhetoric succeeded in moderating Iran’s geopolitical behavior, but added that it is now time for a new US policy approach towards Tehran. "Iran cannot be lumped together with Iraq under Saddam or North Korea," he told EurasiaNet recently.

The softer US language concerning Iran does not necessarily mean that Washington is prepared to ease its diplomatic pressure. US officials remain concerned that Iran seeks to develop nuclear weapons. On September 9, an American official suggested during a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency that Iran was violating the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The official, US ambassador to the IAEA Ken Brill, added that the United States would refrain for the time being taking the Iranian nuclear issue to the UN Security Council. Instead, Washington would "join in the call on Iran to take essential and urgent actions to demonstrate" its openness on the nuclear research issue.

The IAEA has insisted that Tehran make a full disclosure about its nuclear research programs. Iranian officials insist that it seeks to develop atomic energy for civilian purposes.

Editor�s Note: Ardeshir Moaveni is a freelance journalist who specializes in Iranian and Afghanistani affairs.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the position of the Open Society Institute and are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.