EurasiaNet Eurasia Insight - Azerbaijani Voters Focus on Question of a Dynastic Transfer of Power

EURASIA INSIGHT

AZERBAIJANI VOTERS FOCUS ON QUESTION OF A DYNASTIC TRANSFER OF POWER
10/03/03
A EurasiaNet commentary

President Heidar Aliyev’s announcement that he is withdrawing from the country’s presidential race is forcing Azerbaijani citizens to confront the question of a dynastic transfer of power. Given that Azerbaijan’s political culture is rooted more on the principle of coercion than of persuasion, some observers question whether the elder Aliyev’s endorsement of his son’s candidacy will be sufficient to ensure the dynastic transfer over the long term.

The announcement that Heidar Aliyev’s long political career was drawing to a close was already considered a foregone conclusion by most political observers in Baku weeks, even months before the formal decision was made on state television on October 2. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. For many Azerbaijani voters, however, the news may have come as a mild surprise. The president has not made a public appearance in months, and is reportedly in extremely fragile health as he receives treatment at the Cleveland Clinic. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Nevertheless, a significant number of voters did not dismiss official comments that the elder Aliyev, who enjoys wide public respect for his forceful personality and firm political style, would return to mount a last-minute reelection effort.

The October 2 announcement puts an end to any hopes that the Heidar Aliyev era can be prolonged. That has left voters to confront the future without a strongman at the helm of Azerbaijan’s government. While the president is universally seen as a savvy politician and a stabilizing presence, his son, Ilham -- now the ruling New Azerbaijan Party’s sole presidential candidate -- has been dogged by opposition attempts to portray him as a feckless bon vivant.

Aliyev’s strategy for the dynastic transition has long been clear: The president and his men are attempting to transfer the elder Aliyev’s prestige � earned over a 30-plus year political career that included membership in the Soviet Politburo � to Ilham, who is a relative political novice. For example, in a statement read in connection to the October 2 announcement, Aliyev vigorously endorsed his son and went to great lengths in praising Ilham’s political skills. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Ilham for his part has stressed that he will scrupulously adhere to the political and economic policies forged by his father.

Most political observers believe Ilham will be declared the winner of the presidential election October 15 � if for no other reason than authorities are widely expected to resort to ballot fraud in order to guarantee the New Azerbaijan Party retains power. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Leading opposition candidates � including Isa Gambar and Etibar Mamedov -- insist that a fair vote would result in defeat for Ilham.

The main question debated by many political analysts, both abroad and in Baku, is not whether Ilham can win the election, either by fair or foul means; it is whether he can retain power after the election. At this point, there is no general consensus on the answer.

With Ilham seemingly enjoying the backing of the state apparatus, it is certainly possible that he can cement the dynastic transition into place. Yet, many believe that Ilham may run into trouble as he attempts to consolidate his own authority. Observers add that the administration’s effort to transfer prestige from father to son may bring short term benefits, but they stress that, under the circumstances, public respect for Ilham could quickly dissipate.

Already, some analysts believe that many citizens who felt inclined to vote for Heidar Aliyev will not automatically switch their loyalties to Ilham, despite the president’s endorsement. They contend that the power of the elder Aliyev’s endorsement on October 2 was significantly diluted by the fact that it was read by an announcer on state television, and not read by the president himself. This appears to lend credence to opposition claims that Heidar Aliyev illness has left him incapacitated.

Ultimately, it will be the circumstances surrounding the election, and the counting of ballots, that are expected to exert the greatest influence on Ilham’s ability to consolidate power. Because he is running on his father’s legacy and not his own, Ilham’s legitimacy as president may turn out to be far more dependent on the conduct of the election that has usually been the case for incumbent leaders in elections in former Soviet republics.

An election that features large-scale irregularities appears certain to spark opposition protests, which observers believe could quickly turn violent. Already the Azerbaijani presidential campaign has witnessed violent clashes between opposition supporters and government security forces. In one of the latest incidents of campaign-related violence, activists of Mamedov’s Azerbaijani National Independence Party engaged in a "brawl" with ruling party supporters October 2, during a campaign rally in the southern Imisli District, the Bilik Dunyasi news agency reported.

Ilham’s ability to respond to large-scale unrest is uncertain. At present, he would appear to command the respect of security forces and the ruling establishment. But that might change, depending on circumstances arising out of the election. Much could also depend on the opposition’s actions in the vote’s immediate aftermath. A strong, well-coordinated effort to mount public demonstrations over electoral fraud could cause internal splits within the ruling party.

In addition, an outburst of violence could possibly erode international support for Ilham. The Bush administration in particular has exhibited a strong preference for an Ilham election victory. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. At the same time, a source told EurasiaNet that during Ilham’s recent visit to the United States, made in connection with the UN General Assembly, the younger Aliyev received a caution from US Secretary of State Colin Powell that a violent response to demonstrations would be deemed unacceptable by Washington.

Opposition leaders believe that they can mobilize hundreds of thousands of supporters if they consider the elections to be fraudulent. That the opposition legions would actually take to the streets is not certain. However, the perception that Ilham is not the strongman that his father is would seem to increase the odds of post-election unrest with unpredictable results.

The Central Eurasia Project aims, through its website, meetings, papers, and grants, to foster a more informed debate about the social, political and economic developments of the Caucasus and Central Asia. It is a program of the Open Society Institute-New York. The Open Society Institute-New York is a private operating and grantmaking foundation that promotes the development of open societies around the world by supporting educational, social, and legal reform, and by encouraging alternative approaches to complex and controversial issues.

The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the position of the Open Society Institute and are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.