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EURASIA INSIGHT

TURKEY HEADS INTO CRITICAL PERIOD FOR EU ACCESSION BID
Mevlut Katik 10/03/06

Turkey is struggling to keep its European Union membership aspirations alive on the first anniversary of the start of accession talks. The next few days could prove pivotal for Ankara.

The EU Commissioner for Enlargement, Olli Rehn, arrived in Turkey on October 2, issuing a warning: Ankara urgently needs to "relaunch" its liberalization drive, otherwise accession talks could well end in a "train crash." Offering specifics, Rehn called on Turkish leaders to abolish or rework legislation, known as article 301, which has been used in recent attempts to muzzle free speech, as well as permit vessels and planes from Cyprus, a new EU member, to dock or land in Turkey. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In addition, Rehn said Turkey had to strengthen civilian control over the military, which has traditionally acted as a guardian of Turkey’s secularist tradition, and thus has often involved itself in Turkish politics. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan began his latest push to keep membership hopes on track with an October 2 visit to Washington, where he received a key endorsement from the Bush administration. US-Turkish relations have been subjected to considerable stress since the start of the Iraq war in 2003. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. But US President George W. Bush offered a strong endoresement of Turkey’s EU bid. "It’s in the United States’ interests that Turkey join the European Union," a White House statement quoted Bush as saying.

Bush’s support for Turkey’s EU accession efforts is to a certain extent intertwined with Ankara’s cooperation with the United States in efforts to stabilize the Persian Gulf and Middle East. "We talked about our determined efforts to fight terror and extremism. We talked about our common efforts to bring stability to the Middle East," Bush said.

Erdogan lauded the discussions as "positive," adding that he "expressed [Turkey’s] sensitivities" concerning Cyprus. "It was important to hear the President say that [US] support for Turkey’s membership to the European Union will continue," Erdogan said.

Cyprus also figured prominently in October 3 discussions in London between Erdogan and British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Turkey’s point man on the EU accession issue, Ali Babacan, joined Erdogan in London for the meetings with British officials.

The crisis concerning Cyprus is rooted in the island’s divided status. The Republic of Cyprus, controlled by Greek Cypriots, joined the European Union in May 2004 along with nine other states. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The unrecognized Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, covering roughly 37 percent of the island’s territory, was established in 1983 in the areas occupied by the Turkish army amid civil strife nine years earlier. Since the island’s division in 1974, economic development in the Turkish sector has lagged far behind that in the republic.

Turkey has refused to permit Republic of Cyrprus vessels and planes entry into Turkish ports and airports, in apparent violation of a customs agreement between Ankara and Brussels. Erdogan and other officials, however, contend that the EU is not fulfilling an obligation to economically engage the Turkish-controlled portion of Cyprus. The United States, in conjunction with Finland, which currently holds the rotating EU presidency, were working on a compromise.

For Erdogan, the toughest talks may come in the next two days. Erdogan is scheduled to meet Rehn on October 4. The following day, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is scheduled to arrive in Ankara. Germany and France have been perhaps the most outspoken skeptics on Turkey’s EU bid.

Erdogan is expected to argue that Turkish reforms, calibrated to prepare the country for accession, are continuing. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The Turkish parliament is considering a reform package, but officials in Brussels have questioned whether the package, if enacted, will fully satisfy the EU’s reform expectation.

Erdogan’s task stands to be doubly challenging due to rising domestic opposition to his government. On October 2, both outgoing President Ahmet Necdet Sezer, and the new military chief of the general staff, Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, roundly criticized the Erdogan government.

In an October 2 speech marking the start of the academic year for Turkish military academies, Buyukanit tacitly accussed the government of trying to destroy Turkey’s secular political tradition. According to a report posted on the New Anatolian website, the general listed a series of questions: "Aren’t there people in Turkey saying that secularism should be redefined? Aren’t those people occupuying the highest seats of the state? Isn’t the ideology of Ataturk, founder of the [Turkish] republic, under attack?" Buyukanit went on to say an affirmative answer to any of the questions would confirm that Turkey was facing an Islamic radical threat.

The same day, Sezer, in an address to parliament, vigorously disputed an idea advanced by Erdogan’s moderately Islamic Justice and Development Party that the secular concept of statehood needed to be refined. "Religion cannot be allowed to exceed an individual’s spiritual life and influence social order," Sezer said.

Editor�s Note: Mevlut Katik is a London-based journalist and analyst. He is a former BBC correspondent and also worked for The Economist group.

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