Analysts: Azerbaijan Power Feud Could Prompt “Political Crisis”

A recent campaign by pro-government forces against Azerbaijan's Interior Minister Ramil Usubov suggests that a power struggle is underway within President Ilham Aliyev's government that could lead to political crisis, observers say.

Usubov has been Azerbaijan's interior minister since 1994, and represents the government's so-called "old guard." While Usubov does not enjoy wide popularity among ordinary Azerbaijanis, his loyalty to the Aliyevs, both father and son, has never been in doubt. Now, however, some analysts have begun to ask whether the anti-Usubov campaign is a sign that President Aliyev would prefer to install an interior minister who owes his position to him, rather than to his father, the late president Heidar Aliyev.

Pro-government parliamentarians leading the attacks against Usubov have tried to tie the interior minister to the criminal prosecution of a group of police officers on murder and kidnapping charges. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. The MPs have accused Usubov of being indifferent to, or even involved in, the activities of the group, allegedly headed by Haji Mammadov, a former senior Interior Ministry official. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Experts and journalists in Baku, however, believe that the campaign against the interior minister actually is connected to a power struggle between two powerful cliques; one headed by Usubov and Presidential Chief of Staff Ramiz Mekhdiyev, and a second led by Minister of Emergency Situations Kamaleddin Heydarov, a strong ally of President Aliyev, and Minister of National Security Eldar Makhmudov.

"These groups keep fighting for economic interests and political influence and the attack on Ramil Usubov is a sign of this fight," commented Rauf Mirgadirov, a political correspondent for the Baku-based pro-opposition daily newspaper Zerkalo.

At first glance, Heydarov, who ran the country's Customs Committee for ten years until his ministerial appointment in early 2006, would seem more than a match for Usubov. He ranks as one of Azerbaijan's most powerful cabinet members. The arrest of former Minister of Economic Development Farhad Aliyev, a longtime Heydarov rival, on charges of plotting a coup on the eve of the November 2005 parliamentary elections was widely attributed to Heydarov's growing influence and favor with President Aliyev. As the Minister for Emergency Situations, Heydarov now oversees a huge law enforcement agency with its own troops and materiel.

Initially, Usubov's resignation was the widely expected outcome of the power struggle. But recent developments indicate that the end result remains unclear. Several pro-government MPs earlier pledged to have Usubov brought before parliament for "a hard talk" in connection to the Mammadov case, as well as the minister's allegedly "lacklustre" job performance. Yet, since it reconvened for its autumn session October 2, parliament has made no move to hold such a hearing.

A source within parliament who requested anonymity told EurasiaNet that Safa Mirzoyev, parliament's chief of staff, asked a group of "riotous" MPs on behalf of Presidential Chief of Staff Ramiz Mekhdiyev not to summon the interior minister for questioning. Husein Abdullayev, a pro-government parliamentarian without party affiliation who first pledged to have Usubov brought before parliament, confirmed to EurasiaNet that parliamentarians were "pressured" on this issue.

Meanwhile, the anti-Usubov media campaign has lost its chief proponent. Realniy Azerbaijan, a Russian-language newspaper that had published much of the criticism of Usubov, has announced plans to close. Its editor, Einulla Fatullayev, told media outlets that death threats have prompted him to shut down the paper and to leave Azerbaijan. On September 26, Fatullayev, a former editor for the controversial Monitor newspaper, was also sentenced to a suspended two-year prison term for slandering Usubov. (The sentence means that the journalist is not put in jail, but can have additional time added to his sentence if found guilty on other charges during those two years). The newspaper reportedly published its last issue on October 3.

While Fatullayev declined to talk with EurasiaNet about the newspaper's situation, a Realniy Azerbaijan employee who asked not to be named said that "serious pressure from the presidential administration caused this decision." The source said that Fatullayev plans to seek political asylum in the US.

The paper is widely seen as having allied itself with the Heydarov clique. Minister of National Security Makhmudov and Minister of Emergency Situations Heydarov are among the few state officials who have escaped from the newspaper's criticism in the past. The paper has also published sensitive details from the Mammadov case, which were not publicly available.

Experts' opinions about this political tug-of-war vary, but all see President Aliyev as the potential catalyst.

"If the president expresses his view on any issue, no one [in the government and parliament] could dare to go beyond it," Zafar Guliyev, an analyst from the pro-opposition Turan Analysts Group, said. "But so far Ilham Aliyev has not expressed his position on the current conflict." That silence, Guliyev contended, is only adding to the tension; another commentator, Zerkalo's Rauf Mirgadirov, argues that the two groups are both contending for Aliyev's support, "but the president is still waiting for the right moment" to show his hand.

Ilgar Mammadov, an independent Baku-based political expert, considers that President Aliyev himself may indirectly support the attack against Usubov. "Ilham Aliyev could not just fire the minister who was very devoted to his father for ten years," Mammadov said. "Therefore, it is possible that he [president] is encouraging the attack against Usubov to make him resign."

While analysts say that it is difficult to predict the outcome of the conflict, most agree that the process could lead to political turmoil. If Usubov resigns, Mammadov said, "the ricochet might be very serious and painful for the president."

Political analyst Rasim Musabekov says that the struggle might lead to "a serious crisis," if President Aliyev does not intervene in time. "But I think Ilham Aliyev still has some time to apply tough measures and to close the issue," Musabekov said.