EURASIA INSIGHT
Abubaker Saddique
10/08/04
Afghanistan’s first electoral experiment promises to be messy, and, probably, violent. But on the eve of the October 9 presidential vote, large numbers of Afghans say they are eager to cast ballots. Even in some of the country’s most dangerous areas, including Kandahar and Paktia provinces, residents continue to express hope that the election will mark a break with the country’s tortured past. At the same time, Afghan political experts are quick to caution that the pluralistic traditions that develop in their country may differ significantly from those in industrialized nations.
Violence has been a constant feature of the presidential campaign, as Taliban insurgents and warlord militias have sought to undermine the democratic process. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Attacks and other acts of intimidation are ongoing, underscored by a large explosion that rocked Kabul on October 8, near the headquarters of the international security force in Afghanistan and the US and German embassies. Authorities were bracing for more acts of violence on election day itself.
There is little tension surrounding the election race, as interim President Hamid Karzai is expected to easily defeat his 17 challengers. Most attention at this stage is focusing on voter turnout and the ballot-counting effort. Observers have identified numerous flaws in the voter registration process, raising the likelihood of election irregularities. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Taliban militants have been most active in southern and eastern areas of the country. In the southern city of Kandahar, heartland and traditional stronghold of Afghanistan’s majority Pashtun ethnic group, the atmosphere during a recent visit seemed largely optimistic, despite some expressions of concern about the Jangsalarn and Topakian – Afghan terms for the warlords and the Taliban gunmen.
According to one senior politician in Kandahar, the mere fact that the election is being held at all should be viewed as a major accomplishment. "Irrespective of the results and how transparent will these elections be, holding the event is an achievement in itself," the senior politician told EurasiaNet.
Being Karzai’s home town, campaign posters featuring his beaming smile are stuck on walls and doorways all around Kandahar. Almost everybody interviewed in the dusty former Taliban stronghold was confident that election day would be peaceful in Kandahar city. However, many voiced concern that voting in the surrounding countryside could be plagued by violence.
In the southeastern city of Gardez, the continuing threat of violence has not dampened Dr. Naz Dana Paktiawala’s optimism that the election will open a more stable epoch for Afghanistan. "I think we still have a long way to go, but I am nearly certain that war is not going to return any time soon," Paktiawala said. In one sign that local residents want the democratic experiment to succeed, many tribes in the region have formed ‘Arbakies,’ groups of armed volunteers who will seek to prevent violence on polling day.
Paktiawala is an embodiment of the legendary Afghan resilience, surviving the violent changes that have occurred over the past 25 years, ranging from Soviet occupation to Taliban tyranny. Today, she works to provide critical maternity medical aid in one of the country’s most conservative towns. "They [members of the international community] will need to assist us for a long time--to nurture the new change they call democracy. We need everything from needles to airplanes," she said. Across from her clinic, the government hospital she heads still lacks an X–ray machine, a working laboratory and many other essential medical supplies.
In western Afghanistan, the city of Herat has experienced warlord infighting in recent months. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Despite the bouts of warlord militia confrontation, the city and surrounding area are humming with entrepreneurial energy. Roughly half a million dollars in revenue is generated each day through regional trade, as the city benefits from its strategic location near Iran and Turkmenistan.
With ample supplies of electricity provided by neighboring countries, recently rehabilitated roads and functioning hospitals and schools, Herat offers the best living standards in Afghanistan. Officials in the capital Kabul hope the election -- combined with the recent dismissal of regional governor Ismail Khan, who is also the area’s strongest warlord – will help accelerate the positive trends in the western region.
While many Afghans may have high hopes that they will be able to put the traumatic experiences of the past 25 years behind them, virtually no one is entertaining illusions that prosperity is around the corner. "We do not expect to become another Germany or Japan, the best we are aiming for now is to make our country a livable place. But all that hinges on positive Western engagement," said Habibullah Rafie, a Kabul-based Afghan analyst.
Editor’s Note: Abubaker Saddique reports on South Central Asia.
