Kyrgyzstan: Bishkek Turns into Summit Central

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is expected to use the occasion to promote Russia's vision for a new world order -- one in which the United States is not the sole global power. In the Kremlin's worldview, Russia is rising to counterbalance US power. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Medvedev offered a preview of Russia's new geopolitical line in public comments made at a leadership forum in Evian, France, on October 8. Assailing the United States, Medvedev said Washington had squandered "a historical chance" to produce a stable, democratic world order in the post 9/11 era. He added that the United States could no longer be trusted as a security partner, and suggested that the European Union should collaborate with Russia on building a new security framework.

US mismanagement was largely responsible for the economic woes that are sweeping the globe, Medvedev asserted. "Even during the 1990s the ineffectiveness of the 'unipolar' economic model revealed itself," he said. "And more recently the weakening dollar has created a whole chain of problems."

The Bishkek CIS summit will be the first such gathering since the Russia flexed its geopolitical muscle in its August incursion into Georgia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Since then, Russia has had a difficult time of convincing Central Asian and Caucasus states to buy into the Kremlin's plan for a new world order. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Medvedev will continue to make Moscow's case in Bishkek.

Beyond the bevy of formal summits, tete-a-tete meetings among CIS leaders are expected focus on a wide variety of issues, including the global economic crisis, energy and security issues and illegal migration.

Russia sees economic concerns as a wedge that can be used to advance Russia's geopolitical interests. Closer economic cooperation could be expected to produce tighter political ties. Russian presidential aide Sergei Prikhodko insisted the meetings would be "routine," adding that economic issues would be high on the agenda. "The leaders will consider a CIS draft economic development strategy until 2020, drawn up by a working group of deputy economic ministers from the member states," he said.

"It is also likely to be of interest to our partners what measures Russia is taking with regard to this [economic crisis], not only domestically but also in terms of our interaction with our partners in Europe and elsewhere," Prikhodko added.

Other items up for discussion will include the creation of a customs union between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan with the option open for other member states to join the partnership.

Kazakh politician Tair Mansurov, the Eurasian Economic Community secretary general, said the customs union could be established as early as 2010. Russia's lower house of parliament, the State Duma, ratified documents on forming the "strategic alliance" earlier in October.

The meetings will serve as a barometer of regional relations in the aftermath of the Russian-Georgian war. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Russia's incursion into Georgia rattled a number of former Soviet states. Despite the pressure being exerted by Moscow on its neighbors to make a geopolitical choice between Russia and the United States, Central Asian and Caucasus states remain determined to keep their options open. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Kazakhstan, perhaps the most influential CIS nation after Russia, has made it known that it will not be abandoning its "multi-vectored" foreign policy philosophy. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. While Astana possesses the energy resources to ensure policy independence, other Central Asian states are not in as strong a position.

Moscow's economic and political leverage with the smaller, less wealthy Central Asian nations is considerably greater, and local experts say Kyrgyzstan in particular may find itself hard pressed to resist Moscow's geopolitical pressure. The Kremlin's primary objective, experts add, is forcing the closure of an American air base at Manas, outside the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek.

Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev said ahead of his meeting with President Medvedev:
"Our relationship with Russia is our main priority, especially as an issue of foreign policy. We believe that Russia is our main strategic partner. And this dynamics has a great potential in both political and economical format, which unfortunately has not been used yet."

While acknowledging that Bishkek had sturdy relations with the United States and European Union, Bakiyev made it clear that Moscow was the country that his administration would rely on to solve existing economic dilemmas. "We would like Russia to assist in Kyrgyzstan's hydro-energy, agro-industry, mining and agriculture development," he said.

On the eve of the CIS summit, Russia and Kyrgyzstan signed an intergovernmental agreement on developing energy cooperation, along with memorandum of understanding between the Kyrgyz government and the Kremlin-controlled energy conglomerate Gazprom.

The CIS formally comprises Russia, Georgia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Moldova, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Ukraine is a founding and participating country but technically not a member state because it never ratified the CIS pact. Turkmenistan holds associate status.

The Eurasian Economic Community was established in 2000, is an international economic organization, consisting of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. Armenia, Moldova, and Ukraine have observer status.

Three regional leaders -- Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko -- will not be attending the Bishkek summits. Aliyev is focusing on his re-election campaign, Georgia announced it was withdrawing from the CIS in protest against Russia's incursion, and Yushchenko finds himself distracted by the calling of snap elections.