EURASIA INSIGHT
Fariz Ismailzade
10/14/03
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Many election watchers in Baku say the opposition’s inability to settle on a single candidate to run against the ruling party’s Ilham Aliyev -- son of the retiring incumbent Heidar Aliyev – has made incumbent authority’s task of retaining power far easier than it otherwise might have been. Some observers claim that Ilham Aliyev, in facing a divided opposition, could win the election without resorting to fraud.
It appears that a personal rivalry prevented the opposition from nominating a unified candidate. The latest, unsuccessful unification effort occurred October 8, when the two main opposition candidates -- Isa Gambar of the Musavat Party and Etibar Mamedov of the National Independence Party (ANIP) – engaged in a final round of negotiations. The talks were organized by another opposition leader, Ali Karimli of Popular Front Party, who has previously withdrawn his candidacy in favor of Mamedov.
The October 8 talks came close to bridging the gaps among opposition leaders: Mamedov reportedly agreed to withdraw his candidacy in support of Gambar, provided the latter agreed to appoint him prime minister in the event the opposition came to power. Aides had reportedly begun drafting the text of a unification agreement, but the next day Gambar suddenly shifted course, coming out with a surprise announcement that he had joined forces with Rasul Guliyev, the chairman of the Democratic Party. Guliyev has been in exile in the United States since 1996 and is one of the most powerful opposition leaders in Azerbaijan. According to the agreement, Guliyev will become prime minister if Gambar wins the elections. In explaining his decision to back out of the arrangement with Mamedov, Gambar said; "The terms of the agreement did not satisfy me."
Gambar’s abrupt move has angered many in the country, both among opposition activists and in the broader population. "Isa Gambar once again did not keep his promise," said a commentary published by the independent daily Zerkalo. The newspaper pointed to a previous incident, when Gambar reportedly double-crossed Karimli prior to the 2000 parliamentary election.
Azerbaijani opposition leaders have sought for years to produce a single candidate, but personal factors more than philosophical differences seem to have hampered each unification initiative. Of late, the rivalry between Gambar and Mamedov had been identified as the most significant obstacle to opposition cohesiveness.
Mamedov’s low standing in public opinion polls may have prompted him to make what was certainly a painful political gesture of offering to withdraw his candidacy in favor of Gambar, some political analysts say. Whatever the motivation, Gambar’s reluctance to embrace the offer dashed what was widely viewed as the last and most realistic opportunity for opposition unity.
Mamedov, himself, refused to comment, saying only that the decision of the Musavat chairman is his private business. Yet, the head of ANIP’s election headquarters Fuad Agayev did not hide his disappointment over Gambar’s actions. Some observers speculate that Gambar opted for an alliance with Guliyev because the Democratic Party reportedly has more financial resources than Mamedov’s ANIP. The government has charged Guliyev with embezzling roughly $80 million from state coffers. Guliyev maintains the charge is politically motivated.
The political atmosphere remains highly charged as the election nears. On October 12, roughly 100,000 people turned out in Baku for a Gambar election rally, the largest such opposition demonstration during Heidar Aliyev’s tenure as president. Gambar pledged to overhaul the government if elected. "We will not follow the path of Heidar Aliyev – the path of corruption and poverty," the Turan news agency reported Gambar as saying.
At the same time, Gambar and his supporters are taking steps to hinder expected government attempts to manipulate the election. The Musavat Party announced that it will mount another rally in Baku on October 16, the day after the election, the opposition newspaper Yeni Musavat reported October 12. One of the rally’s slogans is: "We will not let the election results be falsified." Gambar also appealed to Azerbaijani military personnel to disobey any order intended to influence the election, according to Turan.
Meanwhile, Ilham Aliyev and other top government officials continue to embrace populist issues in their attempt to woo voters for the ruling party candidate. Speaking at an October 13 news conference, Ilham pledged that if he is the winner, he will keep the existing government team in place. At an earlier campaign appearance, Ilham vowed to reduce unemployment. A top Aliyev administration aide, Ramiz Mekhtiyev, told state television on October 11 that the ruling party would eliminate corruption if Ilham won the election. "Our principled position is that within the next five years, the country will take all measures, adopt all necessary laws and take necessary steps to avoid such a negative trend."
Editor’s Note: Fariz Ismailzade is a freelance analyst on Caucasus politics and economics. He has received his master’s degree from Washington University in St. Louis and is a regular correspondent for various international media outlets.
Posted October 14, 2003 © Eurasianet
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