Georgia's Turmoil Heightens Tension in Separatist Regions

Georgia's deepening domestic turmoil is heightening tension in the country's separatist regions, especially South Ossetia. Georgian officials accuse Ossetian leaders of harboring Chechen rebels and of engaging in criminal activities. Ossetian separatists, meanwhile, say Tbilisi intends to attempt the forcible restoration of the country's territorial integrity under the guise of anti-crime operations.

In early October, Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze raised the possibility of widening the Pankisi Gorge anti-crime sweep being carried out by security troops, specifically mentioning the Tskhinvali District of South Ossetia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive] However, on October 4, Georgia presidential envoy Irakli Machavariani denied that Tbilisi was planning an armed operation in Ossetia, Kavkasia Press said. Nevertheless, suspicion continues to mark Georgian-Ossetian relations.

The elected head the unrecognized South Ossetian republic, Eduard Kokoyev, is preparing for all possibilities. On October 14, the Ossetian leader announced that the region was mobilizing reservists. According to some press reports, the breakaway republic now has a 5,000-strong defense force, with about 60 percent of adult males bearing arms.

While preparing for hostilities, Kokoyev has also taken steps to forestall a Georgian incursion. Since October 12 Ossetian security forces have arrested 14 suspects in its own anti-criminal operation, Kokoyev announced. Observers suggest the arrests are a preemptive move to remove the pretext for a Georgian security operation.

Kokoyev said, "the majority of those [arrested] served in law enforcement agencies." Political analysts believe that either South Ossetian president has seriously decided to crack down on criminal operations within the territory, or he is using the situation as a pretext for eliminating internal rivals.

Georgia's parliament abolished South Ossetia's autonomous status in late 1990 following sporadic violence. The move helped spark a broader confrontation, which ended in a cease-fire in July 1992. Under the agreement, a joint Russian-Georgian-Ossetian force was created to oversee the cease-fire under the aegis of the Commonwealth of Independent States, and with OSCE oversight. As a result, some Georgian villages remain under Tbilisi's jurisdiction. The district capital, Tskhinvali, along with Ossetian villages, comprise the breakaway republic.

In contrast to Abkhazia, Georgia's other separatist republic, South Ossetia had experienced relative peace in recent years, prior to the drastic deterioration of Georgia's political and economic conditions in 2002. Economic contacts between South Ossetia and Georgia had been strengthening. Indeed, observers have argued that a major obstacle to a peace settlement has been the lucrative market for smuggled goods. A few of these observers allege Ossetia is a trafficking conduit for everything foodstuffs to narcotics.

In an October 11 state-of-the-nation address, Shevardnadze said Georgia strives to restore Tbilisi's authority over both Abkhazia and Ossetia, while refraining from threatening armed action. "Restoring the country's territorial integrity should not be seen as a one-off act that will immediately abolish all state structures that exist de facto in Abkhazia and the Tskhinvali zone at present," Shevardnadze said. "It will be an evolutionary, multi-stage process."

Kokoyev has indicated he is not interested in negotiations. On October 15, he indicated that he would shun a meeting with the Georgian president. "I do not and will not contact Shevardnadze," Kokoyev told the Prime-News agency. The Ossetian leader characterized Shevardnadze as "one of the main criminals guilty of genocide against Ossetians" during the armed conflict between Georgian government forces and Ossetian separatists.

A businessman and a Russian citizen, Kokoyev won election as de facto president in November 2001. Both Georgian authorities and the OSCE deemed the vote to be illegal. Kokoyev, as well as Abkhazian leaders, began expressing concern about the futures of their respective territories after Tbilisi agreed to allow US military advisors train the Georgian military. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Concern in Tskhinvali and Sukhumi heightened after Tbilisi launched the Pankisi security sweep in August. Kokoyev met with Abkhazian leader Anri Jergenia in September to strike a mutual defense pact in case of Georgian "aggression." Kokoyev also pushed Ossetians to obtain Russian citizenship, and according to some estimates, up to 60 percent of the breakaway regions inhabitants became naturalized Russians.

Political analysts in Tbilisi say Kokoyev has reason to be concerned about a possible Georgian security sweep in South Ossetia. Some Georgian military officials, including the Chief of Staff Joni Pirtskhalaishvili, hinted on the eve of the Pankisi anti-criminal operation, that if it was successful, the practice could be applied elsewhere. Also, Army troops, backing up interior and security ministry forces in Pankisi, have been deployed near South Ossetia's boundaries, ostensibly to block Chechen fighters from using mountain passes to enter Russia from Georgian territory.

Kokoyev's internal political position also appears tenuous, and some observers say Kokoyev's posturing may be an attempt to solidify his popular support base. Sources close to the South Ossetian parliament told EurasiaNet that Kokoyev's opponents in the 2001 presidential race – current so-called parliamentary leader Stanislav Kochiev and former president Lyudvig Chibirov -- still retain both popular support and armed loyalists. These groups have expressed dissatisfaction that Kokoyev's political allies are monopolizing trade opportunities.

Meanwhile, sources at the Georgian parliament's Defense and Security Committees insist there is credible evidence of a Chechen presence in territory controlled by Tskhinvali. These sources tell EurasiaNet that dozens of Chechens, possibly armed, are in one South Ossetian village near the no-man's land that separates Georgia from the breakaway republic.

The leader of the Russian autonomous republic of North Ossetia-Alania, Aleksander Dzasohov, visited Tbilisi on October 11 for closed-door talks with Shevardnadze. Dzasohov later sought to defuse tension, saying the situation in South Ossetia "is controlled well by peacekeeping forces and no additional measures are necessary." He also mentioned "well-being of North and South Ossetia depends on the temperature in Russo-Georgian relations."

In the wake of Shevardnadze's October meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive], political analysts suggest the renewal of the Georgian-Ossetian conflict is unlikely as long as Tbilisi's relationship with Russia continues to stabilize. However, many experts question whether the current Georgian-Russian détente is durable.