Eurasia Insight:
AZERBAIJAN CALM DURING PRESIDENTIAL VOTE, REPORTS OF IRREGULARITIES IN PROVINCES
10/15/03

Relative calm prevailed as Azerbaijan held its presidential election October 15. However, opposition discontent appeared to be brewing amid charges of voting irregularities, particularly in areas outside of the capital Baku.

Many observers expect the ruling party candidate, Ilham Aliyev, to be declared the election winner, thus completing a dynastic transition of power. Iham’s ailing father, Heidar Aliyev, is retiring following a 30-year career at or near the pinnacle of power in Baku. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Throughout the election campaign, the leading opposition candidates – the Musavat Party’s Isa Gambar and the National Independence Party’s Etibar Mamedov – asserted that Ilham and his ruling party allies would need to resort to fraud in order to win the vote. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

The chairman of Azerbaijan’s Central Election Commission, Mazahir Panahov, said preliminary results were expected to be released early October 16. Under Azerbaijani law, final results must be released within 48 hours of the election. Voter turnout was relatively heavy, according to media reports.

A report by the Russian news agency Interfax, citing an exit poll, showed Ilham winning the election with approximately 63 percent of the vote. Gambar was a distant second with 15 percent, followed by the only female candidate, Lala Shovket at 3.5 percent and Mamedov with 3.1 percent. The remainder was split among four other presidential candidates. Over 13 percent of the ballots cast expressed no preference for president, Interfax reported.

Reports of voting irregularities began to circulate in Baku even before the polls closed. Opposition activists complained that government supporters had resorted to widespread ballot box stuffing in Azerbaijan’s provinces. Some observers said pro-government activists also gathered outside polling stations with the aim of intimidating voters. At least one international observer has alleged that officials prepared ballots in advance of election day showing a vote for Ilham Aliyev.

In public comments made after casting his ballot, Gambar pointedly refrained from asking his supporters to show restraint. Musavat leaders have already planned a mass rally October 16 to protest the alleged government ballot rigging. In an open letter to Azerbaijan’s military, Gambar indicated that the opposition would encourage mass resistance in the event of ballot rigging.

"Should the regime try to rig the elections and go against the people’s will, then the people will rise up. This will be a legitimate measure," Gambar said in the October 14 letter to the military. "Rigging elections and usurping power are [tantamount to] a coup d’etat. It is the right of every citizen ... to put up individual resistance against a coup d’etat."

In an appeal sent to US President George Bush on October 14, Gambar urged the United States not to "stay indifferent" to anticipated voting irregularities, saying Azerbaijan’s presidential election offered a stark choice – either the "triumph of democracy" or a throwback to the "totalitarian past."

"The silence of the international democratic community in the face of the arbitrariness of a police regime can lead to dismal consequences," Gambar wrote. "Our country will continue to suffer moral and social degradations; democratic ideals will be rejected and frustration will grow."

The Bush administration has tacitly supported Ilham’s candidacy, primarily out of the belief that a dynastic transition would offer the best hope of maintaining stability in Baku and best serve US strategic interests in the region. [See today’s related EurasiaNet feature for additional information]. During an October 13 news conference, US ambassador to Azerbaijan Reno Harnish called for free and fair elections, and appealed to all sides to refrain from violence.

In a report released October 13, the New York-based Human Rights Watch said that even before the first ballot had been cast, the election could not "be considered free and fair because of widespread abuse and bias favoring government candidates." The human rights group criticized government efforts to prevent independent NGOs from monitoring the election and also complained about "police violence and arbitrary arrests [that] have been endemic during the campaigning period."

"Azerbaijan has a sorry history of election fraud and abuse, and the current presidential election is shaping up to be more of the same," Peter Bouckaert, senior researcher for Human Rights Watch who is in Baku to observe the election, said in a written statement.

On the eve of the election, Azerbaijan’s military became embroiled in controversy. Gambar, in his October 14 letter to military personnel, called on the armed forces to disobey any order that might be designed to influence the election outcome. Azerbaijan’s constitution, Gambar emphasized, stipulates that "only the commander-in-chief can involve the armed forces in any activity not directly related to their [national defense] functions."

Ailing President "Heidar Aliyev has been absent for the past four months and any directive issued on his behalf cannot be deemed legitimate," Gambar continued. "Prime Minister Ilham Aliyev and other officials have no right to give orders to the armed forces."

Gambar’s letter drew a fierce denunciation from government officials. A presidential aide, Sahin Aliyev, said Gambar sought to "create fear" among Azerbaijani citizens. "I believe that our voters, and especially the armed forces, will correctly assess these anti-constitutional, anti-state, anti-patriotic calls, and those people who are making these calls will receive an appropriate reply."