Eurasia Insight:
INDEPENDENT TELEVISION CHANNEL FANS PRO-WAR SENTIMENT IN AZERBAIJAN
Fariz Ismailzade: 10/16/02

"They say there will ill be a war next spring," says Gunel, who is a fourth-year student at one of the most prestigious private colleges in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku. "Fighting is the only way to liberate our land," adds her classmate Aslan.

With the search for a negotiated settlement to the Nargorno-Karabakh conflict stalemated, an increasing number of Azeri citizens like Gunel and Aslan favor a renewal of military action against Armenian and Karabakh forces. President Heidar Aliyev’s government remains officially committed to negotiations. But Baku’s leading private television station, ANS-TV, is helping to fan pro-war sentiment with hawkish coverage of the Karabakh issue.

The lack of progress in Karabakh negotiations is enabling the public discussion in Azerbaijan about the potential resumption of armed conflict. Aliyev’s meeting with his Armenian counterpart Robert Kocharian in August produced no movement in either country’s negotiating position. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. A late September fact-finding mission by the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, which is leading the search for a political settlement, likewise was unable to generate momentum for negotiations.

The frustration associated with the negotiating deadlock is prompting many Azeris to reevaluate the country’s options. According to one opinion poll published in the Yeni Musavat newspaper on October 11, 75 percent of those interviewed favored armed action. Aliyev in recent public appearances, including a meeting with Turkish businessmen in Istanbul on October 15, has acknowledged the bellicose mood in Azerbaijan. He has insisted the government remains committed to a peaceful solution. At the same time, he has criticized the OSCE for a lack of will to push for a compromise.

Unlike state-controlled media, ANS programming appears designed to attract support for a military solution. Several times a day, the channel broadcasts the military-related programs. The channel’s popular midnight program "Kheberdar" (Newsmaker) recently devoted four consecutive programs on the topic of mobilization and the necessity to mount a propaganda campaign to cement public opinion for armed action. "Who if not us ourselves will help liberate our lands?" asked Kheberdar’s anchor Sevil Nuriyeva shortly after the OSCE Minsk Group visit to Baku. Another program "The March" has been showing the military exercises in Azerbaijan’s military bases, the only TV channel to do so thus far.

ANS also airs a steady stream of news reports on the spread of pro-war sentiment. On October 9, for example, an ANS report claimed that the residents of the Nakhichivan exclave, Aliyev’s home region and his power base, support the launching of a fresh military offensive. The same day, ANS broadcast another report in which veterans of the first Karabakh conflict spoke forcefully for the resumption of hostilities.

ANS is popular throughout Azerbaijan, especially in Baku, where it claims to hold a viewer market share of 70 percent. Local political analysts say the impact of ANS’ programming has been significant. From the streets to classrooms and state offices, people talk about the possibility of the resumption of war activities. The phrase "Should the war start,…" has become a usual one in daily conversation. "Should the war starts, many Azeri students from abroad will come back to fight", claims local lawyer Mamed.

The idea of a resumption of fighting is also popular among Aliyev’s political opposition. On September 30, the opening day of the Parliament’s fall session, several opposition deputies lambasted the OSCE. "We must refuse the services of this organization and immediately start the war", said Mais Safarly, the opposition member of the parliament.

The motivation for ANS’ militaristic posture is unclear. Some political analysts have speculated that the government may be utilizing the ANS broadcasts behind the scenes in an attempt to exert pressure on international negotiators to be more supportive of Baku’s negotiating position. Analysts note that government officials have several times over the last two years have expressed concern that the negotiating stalemate could lead to renewed conflict.

Aliyev now seems to want the OSCE Minsk Group to use its influence to get Armenia to withdraw from Azerbaijani land. During the war, Karabakh Armenian forces captured up to 20 percent of Azerbaijan’s territory. The normalization of relations will be possible only after "the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is resolved, Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity is restored and refugees are returned to their permanent place of residence," Aliyev said in an October 14 speech at an Economic Cooperation Organization summit in Turkey.

Other observers suggest that the ANS programming stance is tied to the personal views of the station’s dynamic chief executive, Vahid Mustafayev. They point out that Mustafayev has a reputation for high-level patriotism, adding that he has reportedly been deeply influenced by the death of his brother Chingiz, a television reporter who was shot and killed in Karabakh during the conflict. [For additional information click here] Whatever the motive, ANS now seems unlikely to change the slant of its programming, given the fact that it is attracting viewers.

Though a solid majority of Azeris now seem to favor armed action, many military experts say the Azerbaijani military would be hard-pressed to defeat well-organized and motivated Armenian forces. Aliyev, for one, seems aware that an actual attempt to resume the conflict could prove disastrous for Baku. In an October 16 report in the 525 Qazet newspaper, Aliyev cautioned that decisions concerning the Karabakh issue cannot should not be made in an emotional atmosphere.

Editor’s Note: Fariz Ismailzade is a freelance writer on Caucasus geopolitics and economics based in Baku. He holds a master’s degree from Washington University in St. Louis and currently works for the International Republican Institute’s Baku office and Cornell Caspian Consulting. The views expressed in this article are solely of his own and do not represent the views of these organizations.