rmenia Signals Further Drift To West

Armenia's strengthening ties with the West are raising questions about
the future of Yerevan's special strategic relationship with Russia.
President Robert Kocharian's administration has stepped up military
cooperation with the United States, has begun upgrading Yerevan's
participation in NATO's Partnership for Peace (PfP) program and plans
reforms designed to bring its armed forces closer to Western standards.

Armenian Defense Minister Serge Sarkisian, who many political observers
consider a potential Kocharian successor, has stated that closer defense
and security links with the West are vital for the South Caucasus
nation's security. "The guarantees of ensuring Armenia's security are
the Russian-Armenian military alliance ... and the development of
cooperation with NATO structures and the United States," he stated in a
wide-ranging speech at a NATO-sponsored seminar in Yerevan on October 7.

Sarkisian's comments were noteworthy, given Armenia's status as one
Russia's most loyal ex-Soviet allies. The military alliance with Moscow
has been the bedrock of Armenian foreign policy since the Soviet
collapse in 1991. Successive governments in Yerevan have viewed the
presence of Russian troops in Armenia as a national security necessity.
As recently as in September, Kocharian saluted the "continuing
fraternity" of the two nations as he watched joint military exercises
conducted in Armenia.

Still, a perception that Russia's influence is waning in the South
Caucasus and elsewhere has prompted Armenian leaders to hedge their
geopolitical bets in recent years. Yerevan has forged closer ties with
NATO and the United States in particular. Sarkisian is scheduled to fly
to Washington on October 23 on a five-day official visit, including
talks with Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld and top officials at the US
military's Central Command. The trip will come less than a month after
the latest annual "defense consultations" that were held in Yerevan
between senior Pentagon officials and their Armenian counterparts. The
consultations focused on a plan of joint US-Armenian defense-related
actions for next year and ongoing US military assistance to Armenia that
has totaled over $20 million since 2002.

The two sides may also have discussed Armenia's deeper involvement in
NATO's PfP framework under an "individual partnership action plan," or
IPAP. An Armenian government inter-agency commission developed
IPAP-related proposals, which Sarkisian submitted to NATO
Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer in June. NATO's special
representative to the South Caucasus, Robert Simmons, described the move
as a "significant step ahead in relations between the alliance and
Armenia."

"In effect, Armenia has surpassed Azerbaijan in terms of cooperation
with NATO," Alexander Arzumanian, Armenia's former pro-Western foreign
minister, told EurasiaNet in an interview. "We have approached the level
of the Georgia-NATO relationship."

In his speech, Sarkisian also outlined for the first time "defense
reforms" that he said will stem from Yerevan's growing engagement with
Western powers and security structures. He said those reforms will
result, among other things, in greater civilian control of the Armenian
military. The existing organizational structure of Armenia's Defense
Ministry and armed forces essentially mirrors that of the former Soviet
defense apparatus, with army officers holding just about every
ministerial position. Armenian Foreign Ministry officials have
complained that such a system is anachronistic and hampers closer
cooperation with NATO.

The planned reforms also involve the development and publication of
Armenia's "national security strategy" and "defense doctrine." Both
documents are supposed to be worked out by Yerevan by 2007 in
collaboration with NATO. "As a result of such activities, Armenia's
capability to interact and institutional and conceptual compatibility
with European and Euro-Atlantic structures will grow further," said
Sarkisian.

A key question asked by local analysts is how Armenian authorities can
maintain good relations with Russia and the West at the same time. The
NATO seminar in Yerevan highlighted the difficulty of pursuing this
so-called "complementary" policy. A senior British diplomat attending it
openly questioned the need for continued Russian military presence in
Armenia, while a Russian participant challenged the Armenian defense
chief to explain why his government is "putting national security into
several baskets."

Although Sarkisian emphasized that closer ties with the West could be
achieved without damaging the Russian-Armenian special relationship,
some observers believe that Yerevan will eventually have to make a
choice between the two powers. "The time for making such a choice is
slowly approaching and Serge Sarkisian is well aware of that,"
Arzumanian said. He suggested that the choice will not necessarily be in
Russia's favor, especially if the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is resolved
in the near future.

Prospects for the conflict's settlement have brightened significantly in
recent months. [ For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
International mediators say a peace deal may well be finalized shortly
after the November parliamentary elections in Azerbaijan and
constitutional referendum in Armenia. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Karabakh peace would also have important implications for the unfolding succession
struggle within the Armenian leadership. Sarkisian, widely
blamed for Armenia's chronic vote rigging and government corruption, is seen
as the top candidate to replace Kocharian after the latter
completes his second five-year term in 2008.

Arzumanian, who is highly critical of Kocharian's regime, sees a direct
connection between Sarkisian's pro-Western rhetoric and presidential
ambitions. "I think that Serge Sarkisian has realized what the West
expects him to say," said the former foreign minister. "Given the
current lack of alternatives [within the Armenian opposition], it could
be tempting for the United States and other Western powers to support
his presidential bid. He is already becoming quite acceptable to them."