Renegade Politician in Kazakhstan Tries to Push President into Political Corner

A dispute over Kazakhstan's parliament election results is opening up cracks in the country's political foundation. The renegade leader of the ruling Otan Party, Zharmakhan Tuyakbai, touched off the crisis by characterizing the vote as a "farce," and issuing a direct challenge to President Nursultan Nazarbayev "to find the elections illegitimate." So far, the president has not responded.

The two-round vote – held in late September and early October, and widely condemned as rigged -- handed Otan 42 of 77 seats in parliament. Nazarbayev at first appeared ready to shrug off the criticism coming from international organizations and disgruntled opposition politicians, who asserted that widespread irregularities marred the election. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. But on October 14, Tuyakbai, the deputy chairman of Otan and speaker of the outgoing parliament, shocked the political establishment with an open letter published in the Vremya newspaper that complained about "massive violations of voters' rights."

Tuyakbai asserted that media bias in favor of Otan during the campaign was "only the tip of the iceberg" of electoral violations. He insisted the government engaged in a far-reaching campaign to prevent a free-and-fair election. "The entire 2004 [parliamentary] election process occurred in an atmosphere of continuous pressure by local executive bodies on the will of voters."

At an October 18 news conference, Tuyakbai followed up by announcing his resignation as parliament speaker and his withdrawal from the ruling party. He also repeated his assertions about voter fraud, although he took care to avoid a direct attack on Nazarbayev, who, some observers believe, tacitly approved of the vote-rigging out of a desire to create a pliant parliament. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Tuyakbai suggested that the electoral violations were committed by lower-level officials without the president's knowledge. At the same time, Tuyakbai forced Nazarbayev to confront a delicate political dilemma with a demand that the president rectify the instances of abuse. Nazarbayev "should exert the necessary influence" to overturn the official results, Tuyakbai said.

Nazarbayev visited southern Kazakhstan on October 18 but dodged comment on the election controversy. Some observers suggest the Nazarbayev's silence is an indication that the president finds himself in an unexpected quandary.

In the absence of an immediate presidential response, policy-makers and pundits have debated the motive for Tuyakbai's actions. Some observers believe that Tuyakbai had already fallen out of favor with Nazarbayev, and was slated to be replaced as parliament speaker. Thus, he aired his election complaints to ingratiate himself with opposition parties, thereby keeping his political prospects open. Opposition parties, including Ak Zhol and Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan (DCK), praised Tuyakbai's comments, prompting speculation in some quarters that Tuyakbai might be angling to become the opposition's candidate in the next presidential election in 2006.

Other experts say Tuyakbai's recent comments may be linked to intense political infighting within the ruling establishment. They note that several top members of the political hierarchy -- including Tuyakbai and presidential chief-of-staff Imangali Tasmagambetov – harbor not-so-secret ambitions of becoming Kazakhstan's next president. Tasmagambetov reportedly blocked several Tuyakbai allies from gaining seats in parliament, leaving Tuyakbai in somewhat isolated, they add. Tuyakbai's comments could thus be an attempt to rescue himself after being outmaneuvered by Tasmagambetov. The Interfax-Kazakhstan news agency quoted political scientist Dosym Satpayev as saying; "If, all of a sudden, a top Kazakhstani official starts criticizing either the elections or the political system, it is a first sign of internal conflict within the elite."

A few political analysts raised the possibility that Nazarbayev himself could be orchestrating recent developments in the election-results controversy -- in a manner similar to how the media-law issue played out in early 2004. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Throughout the media law debate, Nazarbayev remained in the background, affording him an opportunity to gauge public and international reaction. The bill, though widely assailed for placing restraints on free speech, eventually secured parliament's approval. However, Nazarbayev ended up vetoing the legislation after apparently calculating that the cost, in terms of tarnished international prestige, was too high. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Under the media-law scenario, Nazarbayev would accept Tuyakbai's appeal, annul the election results, and call for a fresh vote. Nazarbayev would thus avoid being tarnished by the vote-rigging controversy, while at the same time being able to claim that a system of checks and balances is developing in Kazakhstan.

Whatever Tuyakbai's motive, his criticism appears to have energized the opposition at a time when their political fortunes were flagging. DCK leaders indicated that they have engaged Ak Zhol representatives about a potential merger of the two parties, Interfax-Kazakhstan reported.

Tuyakbai has stated that, in the aftermath of his withdrawal from Otan, he has no intention of aligning himself with another political party. But that hasn't stopped speculation that Tuyakbai, perhaps along with some of his Otan protégés, may eventually join forces with Ak Zhol. Some analysts note that Vremya, the newspaper in which Tuyakbai published his open letter on the election, reportedly has close ties to Ak Zhol.

Meanwhile, Otan leaders have engaged in damage-control, dismissing the idea that Tuyakbai's criticism was an indicator of an internal crisis in the ruling party. "No split of the party has taken place," Alexander Pavlov, an Otan leader, said at an October 19 press conference. Otan leaders vigorously defended the integrity of the vote, insisting that they would resist any effort to have the results declared illegitimate.