Opposition-Government Confrontation Grows in Azerbaijan

A consequence of pending constitutional amendments in Azerbaijan is a growing rift between President Heidar Aliyev's administration and opposition leaders. Aliyev critics are now embracing confrontational tactics, spurred by the belief that the looming changes, in particular the alteration of the electoral system, will thoroughly marginalize the political opposition.

Opposition leaders in recent weeks have stepped up personal attacks against Aliyev. A coalition of opposition parties – including the Azerbaijan National Independence Party, the Democratic Party, Musavat and both branches of the Popular Front – issued a statement October 9 that said Aliyev's departure from office was necessary to avoid "civic confrontation."

Observers say that the opposition call for Aliyev's resignation is not necessarily new, but they add that given the post-referendum political atmosphere, government critics now feel more determined than ever to try to force the president from power. Many opposition leaders appear driven by the belief that they have little to lose, as the constitutional changes stand to greatly reduce the ability of the opposition to influence Azerbaijan's future development.

The amendment that most concerns the opposition is one that eliminates the proportional system for determining parliamentary representation, in favor of a first-past-the-post framework. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archives].

Given the government's preponderance of resources, Aliyev critics say the ability of opposition parties to compete within the new system is limited. Thus, opposition representation in parliament stands to be greatly reduced.

In a report on the August 24 constitutional referendum, the opposition coalition insisted that the results were invalid. Opposition observers estimated that only 20 percent of the electorate cast referendum ballots. The government reported 84 percent participation. At least 50 percent of the electorate needed to vote in order for the results to be valid. "The government's claims about the validity of the referendum are wrong, and, in general, the conditions necessary for the free expression of the voters' will were not provided for," the report said.

Since Aliyev came to power in 1993, the country's political opposition has been plagued by disorganization and infighting, which has inhibited well-coordinated pressure on the government. In addition, many parties have lacked a comprehensive political platform that could attract large numbers of supporters. [For background see the EurasiaNet Human Rights archive]. Recent developments, however, indicate that opposition parties have been more successful in organizing, and in setting differences aside to unite against Aliyev's policies.

The opposition coalition came together to oppose the August referendum. Since then, the coalition has organized three anti-government rallies, with a fourth planned for October 26. As opposition cooperation has strengthened, the desire to engage Aliyev in political dialogue evidently has decreased. Opposition parties that in the past were willing to engage in give-and-take with Aliyev – including the National Independence Party (ANIP) – have hardened their positions toward the president.

Observers say the opposition rallies have resonated with many Azeris and have succeeded in boosting anti-government sentiment. The rallies "showed that the consolidation on the [party] leadership level does not [only] create a sense of partnership among [opposition] party activists, but also helps the mobilization of the electorate, which is dissatisfied," said a Turan news agency commentary.

Government officials, for their part, don't seem interested in engaging the opposition. Minister of Education Misir Mardanov said on television on October 2 that students should not be allowed to attend opposition protests.

"Let the teachers teach their classes; let the students attend school. Some people are using inappropriate tactics to attract our children to those meetings," he said. "We should not allow our teachers, high school or university students to go to those meetings." His remarks were strongly criticized by the Baku office of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) but they showed that the rift between the government and opposition is large and, if anything, growing.

In calling for Aliyev's resignation, opposition leaders are hammering the administration over a variety of issues, including the Nagorno-Karabakh peace negotiations and Azerbaijan's economic development.

Many opposition leaders are supportive of a potential attempt to recapture Azerbaijani territory – currently occupied by Armenian troops – through the use of force. Aliyev, meanwhile, publicly remains committed to negotiations. "The resumption of military action has become a talking point and mounting public belligerence is understandable," ANIP leader Etibar Mammedov said in an October 17 interview published in the Zerkalo newspaper. "The fact that the Karabakh problem remains unresolved is the most serious reason for our demands [for Aliyev's resignation]. In it's nine years in power, the regime has been unable to achieve at least some progress. This means the current regime is not coping."

Aliyev, in an Independence Day address, accused his political opponents of opportunism. "I think it is unfair of certain people to take advantage of this situation and try to earn themselves some extra points by conducting various street marches and demonstrations," the president said.

In the same speech, Aliyev trumpeted Azerbaijan's economic achievements. He cited the fact that GDP over the last six years has increased 68 percent, adding that Azerbaijan has attracted $8.3 billion in foreign investment, 65 percent of which has gone to the oil sector. Opposition leaders, however, say that only a small number of Azeris are benefiting from rising GDP and foreign investment, adding that a majority of the population lives in poverty.

The government is expected to unveil a poverty reduction program October 25 during a Baku conference that will be attended by representatives of the United Nations, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. According to an October 17 report in the Ekho newspaper, local non-governmental organization experts who have been following the drafting process are already expressing doubts about the program, saying the government is significantly undercounting the country's poor.

"They [NGO experts] are saying that serious errors have been committed in working out the calculation methods," the newspaper report said. Authorities apparently based their cost-of-living standards on outdated prices, the report added. The actual cost of essential goods in some cases is more than 35 percent higher than the prices used by the government.

The opposition is also trying to make Aliyev's health an issue, aiming to undermine the president's authority by subtly questioning his ability to handle the responsibilities of office. The opposition newspaper Yeni Musavat, for example, published an article alleging that Aliyev suffered a spell of exhaustion on the night of October 18. "Doctors from Moscow were asked for advice over the telephone during that period," the article said.

"It is not surprising that the health of the 80-year-old president cannot hold up," the article continued. "However, we wish him a quick recovery."