Afghan Election: Ethnic Divisions Evident

Hamid Karzai's inauguration as Afghanistan's first democratically elected president seems a foregone conclusion. However, preliminary election results indicate that Afghanistan remains strongly divided along ethnic lines, raising questions about the extent of Karzai's mandate.

Election officials by October 21 had counted roughly 62 percent of the ballots cast in the presidential vote held 12 days earlier. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Karzai's vote total stood at 56 percent. His nearest challenger, Yunus Qanooni, a former education minister and leader of the Panshiri Tajik community, received about 17 percent. Abdul Rashid Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek warlord, and Mohammed Mohaqiq, the leading Hazara candidate, each obtained approximately 10 percent. The other 14 presidential candidates split the remainder of the vote.

Though Karzai appears virtually assured of victory, he needs to secure at least 50 percent of the vote, otherwise he would face a run-off against his nearest challenger, most likely Qanooni. Election officials have announced that they will not declare an official winner until all the ballots are counted.

Karzai, a Pashtun, seemed to be the only candidate to enjoy even a minimal degree of cross-over appeal. Estimates showed that he garnered the overwhelming majority of votes in Pashtun-dominated areas, including southern and eastern Afghanistan. He also polled well in western Herat Province, where in recent months he has acted forcefully to reduce the power of the local strongman, Ismail Khan. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In addition, urbanized Afghans, regardless of ethnicity, seemed to express a strong preference for Karzai.

The other main candidates – Qanooni, Dostum and Mohaqiq – all received the dominant share of votes from within their respective ethnic communities. Beyond their home regions, though, their collective popularity appeal was negligible. Overall, election officials estimate turnout at about 66 percent of the 10-plus million registered voters.

During Karzai's tenure as interim Afghan president, much of the country operated beyond the influence of the central government. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Warlords, including Dostum, are the primary political players in many provinces. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. In other areas, especially in southeastern areas, Islamic radical insurgents pose the main challenge to Kabul's authority. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Fostering a more cohesive state remains one of the top challenges facing Karzai. The president's inability to make substantial inroads among Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras, in terms of his popularity, could hamper the central government's attempts to curtail the influence of warlords and Islamic radicals. Complicating Karzai's task is the fact that his presidential challengers are grudging at best in their acceptance of the vote results. Initially, opposition candidates refused to recognize the tally, alleging numerous instances of fraud. [For additional information see the Eurasia Insight archive]. After coming under pressure from the international community, Qanooni and Dostum have announced that they will accept to totals, pending an investigation by a special election commission. Mohaqiq, however, maintains that the vote was illegitimate.

Some Afghan media outlets have been mildly critical of the international community, suggesting that outside meddling is primarily responsible for Karzai's ability to secure more than 50 percent of the vote. A commentary in one weekly, Eslahat, claimed that many voters felt intimidated into casting a vote for Karzai. "People [Afghans] notice that the international community, especially the United States, supports Hamid Karzai," the commentary said. "They thought that if anyone else is elected, then the international community would stop helping Afghanistan, and the country would fall back into the state that existed three years ago [under Taliban rule]."

The ethnic divisions evident in the presidential vote raise a warning sign for parliamentary elections scheduled for next spring. If the parliamentary vote follows a similar electoral pattern, Afghanistan could end up with a sharply divided legislature that is ineffective in promoting the stabilization of the country.